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April 21, 2021, 02:39:03 PM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  States you really worry about?
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Abolish the Senate; end small state tyranny
recoveringdemocrat
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« on: April 07, 2021, 03:19:45 PM »

*Not necessarily specific just to 2024*

For people with strong partisan beliefs / affiliations - what states really worry you, either because they're trending away from your party, aren't moving toward your party as quickly as you think they should be, etc.? Obviously we all know which states are moving in which direction, so I'm not so much asking for a list as inquiring, what are the 1-2 states that you have a bad instinctual feeling about?

For me, as a Dem, it's Nevada. Regardless of whether last year's Republican gains with Hispanic voters turn out to be a trend or a fluke, this is a state with very low education levels, and Clark County has never given Dems the margins you'd hope or expect from a major urban area. Surely, I'd still rather be a Dem here than a Republican here given recent results, the comparative benches of each party, but I think this is one that could become a real problem over the next decade.

North Carolina is also concerning to me - other than Obama and Hagan's 2008 wins, we haven't won a federal race there since (admittedly, there wasn't one in the good Dem years of 2012 and 2018, so part of it was bad luck with timing). Cooper also underperformed expectations this year and, IIRC, in 2016. Dems still have room to fall here in the rural areas (unlike in GA), and the metro areas aren't as large or diverse as in Georgia. I think holding at least 1 of the 2 Senate seats here will be vital to Dems having a Senate majority in the near future.

I worry less (some, but less) about PA/MI/WI - obviously these are and will continue to be swing states (and in fact, have been for a while if you look at the '00 and '04 results - Obama made them look bluer than they ever were). But I struggle to believe that any will be "gone" for the Dems (e.g., will remain very light blue or at worst, purple). Population shifts out of the rural areas in these states, and continuing room for Dem gains in the more rapidly growing suburbs, has me a little more optimistic about these states than the average Dem. I would be more worried if they were vital for a path to 270 (if anything, they're much more vital for a Senate majority).
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EJ24
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2021, 05:45:17 PM »

As a Democrat: Nevada, Maine, Pennsylvania.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2021, 05:51:00 PM »

As a Democrat: Nevada, Maine, Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania but not WI? Explain yourself? Lmao.
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2021, 06:00:44 PM »

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

I'd say AZ/MI/PA/WI remain the biggest concerns for Democrats. Holding GA isn't going to be enough if they lose more than two of those states.
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Abolish the Senate; end small state tyranny
recoveringdemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2021, 08:15:29 PM »

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

Sarcasm? I'm worried about it but this is...extreme. Where are all the Dem voters going / where are all the GOP voters coming from that's going to make the state double digits lol
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2021, 08:16:52 PM »

Probably Wisconsin the most.
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Abolish the Senate; end small state tyranny
recoveringdemocrat
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2021, 08:18:22 PM »

As a Democrat: Nevada, Maine, Pennsylvania.

Maine is an interesting one - could pose a problem, but I am comforted by the strong D trends this year (along with population growth) in ME-01, along with the population declines in ME-02. Yes, it's white and rural, but it is definitively New England, not the South, which means a different culture (driven in large part by the irreligiosity) and therefore a smaller inclination to vote GOP.
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SAAuthCapitalist
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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2021, 12:34:39 AM »

As a Republican?

Itís Georgia by far.

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Imaginary Populist Ste. Genevieve Trump-Galloway Voter
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« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2021, 03:44:02 AM »

The only state I really worry about is Nevada.

Pennsylvania's rural areas have been deep-R for decades. All we're seeing now is a switch from Dem strength in ancestral areas to Dem strength in suburbs. 2016 was max-R for PA, because it fell in the gap between the two: after one shift, but before the other. Not really something I worry about.

As for Maine, New England has a unique political culture. Biden won the state by 9. It should be fine. Knock on wood.

But Nevada? That one is scary. Trends in that state have suddenly gone from seemingly favorable to Dems to ambiguous, and the state has voted further to the right in every post-2008 election. That's pretty worrying. If you look at the state's political history, it's probably the most consistently swingy and competitive state in the country over time. We can't count on it consistently being Democratic, even if Democrats seem to have the advantage right now. The large legislative majorities look strong, but they come from geography. 2018 reveals the truth: Though Democrats won six of seven statewide races (all except Secretary of State), no Democrat received more than 50.6% of the vote. Conine and Ford almost certainly would have lost if not for the third-party candidates in their races, and Araujo likely would have won if there had been a third-party candidate in his race. This was in a D+8 national environment. Some of them were defeating incumbents, yes, but that's still not a good sign for 2022, not at all.
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Pericles
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2021, 04:35:50 AM »

Maine demographically is one of the few Dem states that really shouldn't be voting Dem. It reminds me of Iowa in 2012, and I worry that one day the Dem lead will break in the same way.

2020 was really reassuring with Minnesota and New Hampshire though, the education divide looks like it will ultimately save Dems there. The other swing states have trends that can roughly balance out. The worry is not that they will permanently drift from Democrats, but that the timing of the trends will be wrong so that WI is suddenly 6 points to the right of the nation and TX is not quite there yet either. I even think FL might still be able to snap back.
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2021, 07:31:20 AM »

Maine demographically is one of the few Dem states that really shouldn't be voting Dem. It reminds me of Iowa in 2012, and I worry that one day the Dem lead will break in the same way.

2020 was really reassuring with Minnesota and New Hampshire though, the education divide looks like it will ultimately save Dems there. The other swing states have trends that can roughly balance out. The worry is not that they will permanently drift from Democrats, but that the timing of the trends will be wrong so that WI is suddenly 6 points to the right of the nation and TX is not quite there yet either. I even think FL might still be able to snap back.

That's generally always the problem. That's what killed Republicans in 2012 and Democrats in 2016.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2021, 09:28:20 AM »

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

Sarcasm? I'm worried about it but this is...extreme. Where are all the Dem voters going / where are all the GOP voters coming from that's going to make the state double digits lol

Itís sarcasm. Heís obsessed with NV staying Democratic.
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Abolish the Senate; end small state tyranny
recoveringdemocrat
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« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2021, 09:31:53 AM »

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

Sarcasm? I'm worried about it but this is...extreme. Where are all the Dem voters going / where are all the GOP voters coming from that's going to make the state double digits lol

Itís sarcasm. Heís obsessed with NV staying Democratic.

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2021, 10:07:39 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2021, 10:16:16 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

D's already have 278 blue wall states 2024 D's Klobuchar, Baldwin, Casey, Stabenow, Kaine, Rosen will be Reelected, that's why Biden said he will be a 2T Prez that's enough to solidify the blue wall, THE END

If we win a combo of OH, IA, NC and FL in 2022 we are off to Filibuster reform and Crt packing

D's won the PVI by 3 last time, they are likely to get wave insurance
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Fumo nationalist
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« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2021, 10:15:28 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2021, 10:22:08 AM by McCarthy supports J.D. Vance for OH-Sen »

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

I'd say AZ/MI/PA/WI remain the biggest concerns for Democrats. Holding GA isn't going to be enough if they lose more than two of those states.


Dude, just take the L already.  You were wrong, it happens, but NV isn't CO or VA.  Not by a long shot-it trended right by 2 points!
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Fumo nationalist
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« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2021, 10:20:56 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2021, 10:25:16 AM by McCarthy supports J.D. Vance for OH-Sen »


I worry less (some, but less) about PA/MI/WI - obviously these are and will continue to be swing states (and in fact, have been for a while if you look at the '00 and '04 results - Obama made them look bluer than they ever were). But I struggle to believe that any will be "gone" for the Dems (e.g., will remain very light blue or at worst, purple). Population shifts out of the rural areas in these states, and continuing room for Dem gains in the more rapidly growing suburbs, has me a little more optimistic about these states than the average Dem. I would be more worried if they were vital for a path to 270 (if anything, they're much more vital for a Senate majority).

PA voted 3.6 points right of the NPV, Wisconsin voted 4.1 points right of the NPV, those are both a non-insubstantial trend right from 2016.  Michigan trended left by about half a point, to 1.9 points right of the PV.  And this was with Joe Biden as the nominee.  Do you think Bernie, Warren or Buttigieg would have seriously won WI or PA?  Believing they will remain tilt D is wishful thinking.

The bottom hasn't fallen out for rural Democratic support yet in WI or MI.  PA is closer to maxed out for the GOP since the middle of the state is culturally appalachian, and votes like it, but Biden was the best candidate to flip it back with areas like Erie and the Philly suburbs.
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Abolish the Senate; end small state tyranny
recoveringdemocrat
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« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2021, 10:49:09 AM »


I worry less (some, but less) about PA/MI/WI - obviously these are and will continue to be swing states (and in fact, have been for a while if you look at the '00 and '04 results - Obama made them look bluer than they ever were). But I struggle to believe that any will be "gone" for the Dems (e.g., will remain very light blue or at worst, purple). Population shifts out of the rural areas in these states, and continuing room for Dem gains in the more rapidly growing suburbs, has me a little more optimistic about these states than the average Dem. I would be more worried if they were vital for a path to 270 (if anything, they're much more vital for a Senate majority).

PA voted 3.6 points right of the NPV, Wisconsin voted 4.1 points right of the NPV, those are both a non-insubstantial trend right from 2016.  Michigan trended left by about half a point, to 1.9 points right of the PV.  And this was with Joe Biden as the nominee.  Do you think Bernie, Warren or Buttigieg would have seriously won WI or PA?  Believing they will remain tilt D is wishful thinking.

The bottom hasn't fallen out for rural Democratic support yet in WI or MI.  PA is closer to maxed out for the GOP since the middle of the state is culturally appalachian, and votes like it, but Biden was the best candidate to flip it back with areas like Erie and the Philly suburbs.


I don't think they will "remain tilt D" but I do think there may be more cause for concern with Nevada, and that thinking they'll be permanently Lean R (or worse) in a few years is also wishful thinking. I obviously know what the trends have been; I also know that the rural areas (where there may or may not be further room for Ds to fall) are stagnant or shrinking while the suburbs both continue to trend D and continue to get larger. I just think they will be very, very purple for quite a while. Also, I am not one of those Dems who thinks the Midwest will revert back to 2012 levels without Trump on the ballot, but we do need to see what impact this will have on both turnout and swing voter outcomes. 2018 probably isn't the best proxy since it was such a great year for Dems; 2022 may be more informative.
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2021, 12:59:54 PM »


I worry less (some, but less) about PA/MI/WI - obviously these are and will continue to be swing states (and in fact, have been for a while if you look at the '00 and '04 results - Obama made them look bluer than they ever were). But I struggle to believe that any will be "gone" for the Dems (e.g., will remain very light blue or at worst, purple). Population shifts out of the rural areas in these states, and continuing room for Dem gains in the more rapidly growing suburbs, has me a little more optimistic about these states than the average Dem. I would be more worried if they were vital for a path to 270 (if anything, they're much more vital for a Senate majority).

PA voted 3.6 points right of the NPV, Wisconsin voted 4.1 points right of the NPV, those are both a non-insubstantial trend right from 2016.  Michigan trended left by about half a point, to 1.9 points right of the PV.  And this was with Joe Biden as the nominee.  Do you think Bernie, Warren or Buttigieg would have seriously won WI or PA?  Believing they will remain tilt D is wishful thinking.

The bottom hasn't fallen out for rural Democratic support yet in WI or MI.  PA is closer to maxed out for the GOP since the middle of the state is culturally appalachian, and votes like it, but Biden was the best candidate to flip it back with areas like Erie and the Philly suburbs.


I don't think they will "remain tilt D" but I do think there may be more cause for concern with Nevada, and that thinking they'll be permanently Lean R (or worse) in a few years is also wishful thinking. I obviously know what the trends have been; I also know that the rural areas (where there may or may not be further room for Ds to fall) are stagnant or shrinking while the suburbs both continue to trend D and continue to get larger. I just think they will be very, very purple for quite a while. Also, I am not one of those Dems who thinks the Midwest will revert back to 2012 levels without Trump on the ballot, but we do need to see what impact this will have on both turnout and swing voter outcomes. 2018 probably isn't the best proxy since it was such a great year for Dems; 2022 may be more informative.

The strategy is to hold enough of the rust belt until there's enough votes in the sunbelt to make up for losses there. Basically, get Georgia, and preferably Arizona to be lean D, NC and NV both to be even odds, and to be able to realistically compete in TX or FL and do it all before at least one of WI,MI, or PA become out of reach.
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Imaginary Populist Ste. Genevieve Trump-Galloway Voter
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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2021, 01:19:00 PM »

Maine demographically is one of the few Dem states that really shouldn't be voting Dem. It reminds me of Iowa in 2012, and I worry that one day the Dem lead will break in the same way.

New England has a unique political culture.

Of course, Iowa did too, but only beginning in the 1980s. New England has voted idiosyncratically for a very long time. Not really any reason for it to stop now.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2021, 01:19:55 PM »

Georgia due to voter suppression.

Wisconsin due to trends.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2021, 01:23:59 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2021, 01:27:55 PM by MT Treasurer »

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?

I mean, believe it or not, I donít predict Republican wins all the time (see my prediction record/compilation below my avatar). Iím more bullish on Republicans in 2022 not just because itís a midterm under a very aggressive D trifecta, but also because the Senate map is nowhere near as unfavorable for Republicans as the 2018 battlefield was for Democrats. I really donít see how WI/PA/AZ/NV, for instance, should be classified as anything better than Tossup for Democrats, and I donít think thatís a hackish prediction at all (it might seem that way because the forum is overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning). Obviously Democrats could win some of these races, but Iíd definitely rather bet on the Republicans. This forum also overdoes it on the "NH is the most elastic state in the country" shtick, and Iím certainly less confident about NH (in the long run) and particularly GA, where I think any R win in 2022 would amount to somewhat of a last hurrah unless party coalitions really change dramatically, allowing Republicans to gain ground in inner-city Atlanta (far more so than the suburbs, which are trending away at an even more rapid pace than NoVA) and the Black Belt ó very unlikely. I do think Biden's margin of victory in NH/ME was somewhat of an aberration/Democratic overperformance and itís clear that Republicans still have significant room for improvement in those two states (as well as states like RI or even VT), but ME in particular will be tougher to flip than I expected given those coastal trends. My expectations for NH were never high to begin with, so I was less surprised by that state's D trend (although I would have been if you had shown me the IA/OH/IL/WI county maps).

Texas is the state any Republican/Republican-leaning independent/conservative should be most worried about simply because 2020 illustrated just how indispensable it is to the party remaining competitive at the national level (with large parts of the Midwest & especially the Northeast/New England proving a lot less reliable in terms of long-term R trends). 2020 might have been a R sweep/overperformance in TX, but thatís only because the expectations were already so low that it should have been alarming to the GOP. The TX GOP obviously should have sounded the alarm bells in 2016, and it had better hope that their outreach to Hispanic and (potentially) working-class voters of color (not just in the RGV/South Texas, because that only buys them another cycle or two given that region's comparatively small population) really bears fruit/gains steam. If it doesnít, they need to pray that migration patterns in TX become more favorable than even they might have anticipated & that the state attracts a wave of conservative migrants somewhat similar to FL.  

Iím also more worried about North Carolina slipping away than most other posters on this forum (including pessimistic Democrats), who, in familiar Atlas/Talk Elections fashion, seem to have overcompensated for their initial (unwarranted) confidence about a blue NC by now overestimating Republican chances. R strength in that state is fueled by unusual exurban margins more so than GA-type margins in rural/small-town areas, and weíve seen in GA how quickly even some of those exurbs can trend away. Just because it hasnít happened in NC yet doesnít mean it will remain perpetually Titanium Tilt R. In terms of unwarranted overconfidence/deceptive strength/'shakiness' within the respective parties' coalitions, NC is pretty much to Republicans what NV is to Democrats.

I actually agree with you that MN and NM will be very tough to flip, the only reason I listed those in that 2026 Senate thread was because I was assuming a very favorable environment for the GOP in that particular scenario, where opposing trends can lag behind a little (case in point: VA 2014, IA 2018). I certainly donít see either state flipping (or even being particularly close) in a neutral election in the 2020s. Like you, Iíd be surprised if NM somehow proved to be more fertile ground for Republicans than NV, and the fact that it trended Democratic this year doesnít inspire confidence.

With regard to the Senate/House, I think the biggest underrated threat to the GOP is some of these Western/Great Plains states trending away from the party to varying extents. Trump might have been a 'uniquely bad fit' for UT, but that state's leftward shift (along with that of AK) is very much real, as is the potential for Democratic leaps in NE/MT/KS. In some of these states, the GOP sweep in 2020 overshadowed some unfavorable long-term trends. Given how reliant the Republicans' 'natural' Senate advantage (which is overstated anyway) is on a near-sweep of the Mountain and Great Plains states, they canít afford to lose too much ground in those regions. 2016 and 2020 also demonstrated the limits of a 'max out the white vote' strategy, which was seriously entertained even as recently as 2012 (with "libertarian" Oregon/Colorado/New Hampshire/etc. supposedly making up for R losses in Virginia/North Carolina/even Florida/etc. ó that didnít age well).
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« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2021, 01:55:17 PM »

I would worry about NV, but since it's "undeniably" becoming a red state and going the way of MO, I guess it doesn't pay to worry about it inevitably going Republican by double digits.

I'd say AZ/MI/PA/WI remain the biggest concerns for Democrats. Holding GA isn't going to be enough if they lose more than two of those states.


Dude, just take the L already.  You were wrong, it happens, but NV isn't CO or VA.  Not by a long shot-it trended right by 2 points!

Iíve acknowledged I was wrong about that. Itís one thing to say that NV is a swing state, but another to say that itís a bigger problem for Democrats than PA or WI, which actually have cost Democrats presidential elections and the Senate before. Itís like the 2020 election automatically overrules every other result to some people. NV isnít Safe for Democrats, but I donít think Lean D is an unreasonable rating, nor do I think itís unreasonable to say that itíll stay left of the tipping point.
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Abolish the Senate; end small state tyranny
recoveringdemocrat
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« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2021, 02:56:20 PM »

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?

Snip

Really great post, thanks for writing all that out, agree with pretty much everything. My "will GOP win everything" jab (unnecessary, admittedly) was less an implication that you overestimate GOP chances, and more a reference to the fact that a lot of your energy on this forum seems to be devoted toward memeing on or pushing back against Democratic over-confidence (and exaggerating the extent of that over-confidence). This is reasonable given the share of Dems on this forum and I would probably behave similarly if I was in the political minority on a platform, but it does grate on me every so often.
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The Trump Virus
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« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2021, 04:09:54 PM »



Don't worry.  Your party is doing everything they currently can to cheat into winning Georgia back.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #24 on: April 08, 2021, 08:05:14 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2021, 08:10:36 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Gotcha, that's helpful, thank you. Are there any states that you really worry about, or is every competitive race likely to break for Republicans all the time?

I mean, believe it or not, I donít predict Republican wins all the time (see my prediction record/compilation below my avatar). Iím more bullish on Republicans in 2022 not just because itís a midterm under a very aggressive D trifecta, but also because the Senate map is nowhere near as unfavorable for Republicans as the 2018 battlefield was for Democrats. I really donít see how WI/PA/AZ/NV, for instance, should be classified as anything better than Tossup for Democrats, and I donít think thatís a hackish prediction at all (it might seem that way because the forum is overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning). Obviously Democrats could win some of these races, but Iíd definitely rather bet on the Republicans. This forum also overdoes it on the "NH is the most elastic state in the country" shtick, and Iím certainly less confident about NH (in the long run) and particularly GA, where I think any R win in 2022 would amount to somewhat of a last hurrah unless party coalitions really change dramatically, allowing Republicans to gain ground in inner-city Atlanta (far more so than the suburbs, which are trending away at an even more rapid pace than NoVA) and the Black Belt ó very unlikely. I do think Biden's margin of victory in NH/ME was somewhat of an aberration/Democratic overperformance and itís clear that Republicans still have significant room for improvement in those two states (as well as states like RI or even VT), but ME in particular will be tougher to flip than I expected given those coastal trends. My expectations for NH were never high to begin with, so I was less surprised by that state's D trend (although I would have been if you had shown me the IA/OH/IL/WI county maps).

Texas is the state any Republican/Republican-leaning independent/conservative should be most worried about simply because 2020 illustrated just how indispensable it is to the party remaining competitive at the national level (with large parts of the Midwest & especially the Northeast/New England proving a lot less reliable in terms of long-term R trends). 2020 might have been a R sweep/overperformance in TX, but thatís only because the expectations were already so low that it should have been alarming to the GOP. The TX GOP obviously should have sounded the alarm bells in 2016, and it had better hope that their outreach to Hispanic and (potentially) working-class voters of color (not just in the RGV/South Texas, because that only buys them another cycle or two given that region's comparatively small population) really bears fruit/gains steam. If it doesnít, they need to pray that migration patterns in TX become more favorable than even they might have anticipated & that the state attracts a wave of conservative migrants somewhat similar to FL.  

Iím also more worried about North Carolina slipping away than most other posters on this forum (including pessimistic Democrats), who, in familiar Atlas/Talk Elections fashion, seem to have overcompensated for their initial (unwarranted) confidence about a blue NC by now overestimating Republican chances. R strength in that state is fueled by unusual exurban margins more so than GA-type margins in rural/small-town areas, and weíve seen in GA how quickly even some of those exurbs can trend away. Just because it hasnít happened in NC yet doesnít mean it will remain perpetually Titanium Tilt R. In terms of unwarranted overconfidence/deceptive strength/'shakiness' within the respective parties' coalitions, NC is pretty much to Republicans what NV is to Democrats.

I actually agree with you that MN and NM will be very tough to flip, the only reason I listed those in that 2026 Senate thread was because I was assuming a very favorable environment for the GOP in that particular scenario, where opposing trends can lag behind a little (case in point: VA 2014, IA 2018). I certainly donít see either state flipping (or even being particularly close) in a neutral election in the 2020s. Like you, Iíd be surprised if NM somehow proved to be more fertile ground for Republicans than NV, and the fact that it trended Democratic this year doesnít inspire confidence.

With regard to the Senate/House, I think the biggest underrated threat to the GOP is some of these Western/Great Plains states trending away from the party to varying extents. Trump might have been a 'uniquely bad fit' for UT, but that state's leftward shift (along with that of AK) is very much real, as is the potential for Democratic leaps in NE/MT/KS. In some of these states, the GOP sweep in 2020 overshadowed some unfavorable long-term trends. Given how reliant the Republicans' 'natural' Senate advantage (which is overstated anyway) is on a near-sweep of the Mountain and Great Plains states, they canít afford to lose too much ground in those regions. 2016 and 2020 also demonstrated the limits of a 'max out the white vote' strategy, which was seriously entertained even as recently as 2012 (with "libertarian" Oregon/Colorado/New Hampshire/etc. supposedly making up for R losses in Virginia/North Carolina/even Florida/etc. ó that didnít age well).


Are you aware that the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016

2022 is not at all like 2014 where we had a red Senate map and 2010 we had 11 percent Unemployment


All the Rs believe this is a 2014 Election and we lost AR, AK, LA, MT, SD,  and WVA

We only lost 1 blue state CO and Scott Brown is the same as Sununu scenario


A SUPERMAJORITY SENATE will actually help Afro Americans with immigrants not inhibite, Shelia Jackson Lee will pass DC Statehood and Reparations for Afro Americans
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