What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?

[Skill and Chance]

Kansas?

[Skill and Chance]

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.

And it's just going to get more skewed until/unless TX left of the nation actually happens!
For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.

And that is pretty much exactly why the tipping point state went from voting to the left of the national popular vote to voting 4 points to the right of it.