My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.
Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.
For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.
2000’s Texas was about as winnable for Dems as California is for the GOP. The cities were not like they are today at the time.
