What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Delaware, the forgotten state, is also a very good take. The GOP used to prove until 2010 that they are able to win Delaware statewide; either Kent or Sussex has voted Democrat, but never both counties since 2012.

I mused in a prior thread on this topic:

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Margins for Dems are at times a bit close for comfort there, but the quirks of the state party and the high Democratic floor in the state are a fair bit to overcome. Maybe it could return to a prior state of downballot wonkiness (it had a Republican Treasurer from 1989 to 2019, for instance, and the governor's chair once favored Republicans), but it would take some more serious realignment for it to become federally competitive like it was in the latter half of the 20th century.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Hot take: NE-01, if Lancaster County keeps growing and the Lincoln metro spills over into other counties. Biden won Lancaster County by almost eight points last year, the best Democratic
performance there since LBJ, and the county's been growing very rapidly since the 80s.

[If my soul was made of stone]

In 2096, when a Democrat finally wins Alaska, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!"

I still think that Alaska is among the likeliest of the Class of '64 states to break out of it next, especially considering coming ecological circumstances, but I think that people vastly underestimate the degree to which rhetoric on guns would need to shift and/or that the petrochemical industry would need to become less prominent in the state for a major shift to come about.