What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03? (user search)
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  What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?  (Read 1987 times)
Jamison5
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« on: April 07, 2021, 06:46:35 AM »

Maybe Nevada, though I'm not sure that that is a good equivalent. They probably do not take it for granted, and it was not as blue as Virginia was red, and of course Nevada is voting to the right of the NPV now. Otherwise I could see Illinois becoming competitive if the rural areas match the rural areas in other states and if Cook County gets closer. In 2020, Illinois was actually closer to the NPV than Iowa was. Delaware was within 10 points of the NPV in 2016 and was still within 15 points of the NPV in 2020 with Biden's home state advantage. I do believe that the home state advantage tends to carry over a bit to the next cycle or two though, so it still could take a while for Delaware to really be competitive, or it might stay where it is. Before 2020 I would have said much of the Northeast like Maine and Connecticut as they had trended red since 2008, but that reversed itself in 2020 and perhaps had more to do with 3rd party votes in 2016.
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