What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03? (user search)
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  What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?  (Read 1993 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,985
United States


« on: April 07, 2021, 01:23:16 PM »

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,985
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2021, 01:32:59 PM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 01:54:41 PM by Roll Roons »

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?

Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.

None of those states are a lock for Democrats, but all three of them are very white. If Democrats do slip with black voters, these are among the last places where such a shift would hurt them.

The states I'd watch would be Georgia, Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, among others.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,985
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2021, 11:52:26 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2021, 11:56:53 PM by Roll Roons »

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.

For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.

And that is pretty much exactly why the tipping point state went from voting to the left of the national popular vote to voting 4 points to the right of it.
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