What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?

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Before Obama managed to conquer Virginia for good, it had been unthinkable for dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, that that state might switch to the Democratic column, thus leading to hilarious comments which are deemed utterly absurd nowadays.

Virginia will vote for a liberal Democrat for president when hell freezes over.

In 2096 when a Democrat finally wins VA, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!".

But keep in mind: If you point a finger at someone, three fingers are pointing back at you.
About which Democratic stronghold X could a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat post comments today such as:

State X will vote for a conservative Republican for president when hell freezes over.

In 2096, when the GOP finally wins State X, the Republicans here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!"

which are likely to sound absolutely preposterous in 20 years?

What safe Democratic state, which the Democrats nowadays take for granted for good, may have turned safe Republican in 20 years?

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Otherwise I could see Illinois becoming competitive if the rural areas match the rural areas in other states and if Cook County gets closer. In 2020, Illinois was actually closer to the NPV than Iowa was. Delaware was within 10 points of the NPV in 2016 and was still within 15 points of the NPV in 2020 with Biden's home state advantage. I do believe that the home state advantage tends to carry over a bit to the next cycle or two though, so it still could take a while for Delaware to really be competitive, or it might stay where it is. Before 2020 I would have said much of the Northeast like Maine and Connecticut as they had trended red since 2008, but that reversed itself in 2020 and perhaps had more to do with 3rd party votes in 2016.

Illinois is a very good suggestion. Without Trump on the ticket, Chicago's huge suburbs might swing back to the GOP column. The South and the West of Illinois have been heavily trending to the right, anyway.

Delaware, the forgotten state, is also a very good take. The GOP used to prove until 2010 that they are able to win Delaware statewide; either Kent or Sussex has voted Democrat, but never both counties since 2012.

What about Rhode Island? 2016 was pretty close, and there was even one county that voted for Trump.

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Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

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Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?

Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose considerable support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.

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New Mexico will vote for a reactionary Republican for president when hell freezes over.

Hell already froze over in 2004.

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Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose considerable support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.

These are probably 3 of the 10 states with the lowest AA percentage. NH, ME are probably bottom 3-5.

I know, but even small things matter sometimes.
Imagine there lived zero African Americans in New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota, those states would have gone to Trump in 2016.