What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?
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April 21, 2021, 03:12:51 PM

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  What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?
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Author Topic: What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?  (Read 1005 times)
The long-desired downfall of the Merkelized CDU
Hades
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« on: April 07, 2021, 03:34:44 AM »

Before Obama managed to conquer Virginia for good, it had been unthinkable for dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, that that state might switch to the Democratic column, thus leading to hilarious comments which are deemed utterly absurd nowadays.

Virginia will vote for a liberal Democrat for president when hell freezes over.

In 2096 when a Democrat finally wins VA, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!".

But keep in mind: If you point a finger at someone, three fingers are pointing back at you.
About which Democratic stronghold X could a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat post comments today such as:

Quote
State X will vote for a conservative Republican for president when hell freezes over.

Quote
In 2096, when the GOP finally wins State X, the Republicans here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!"

which are likely to sound absolutely preposterous in 20 years?

What safe Democratic state, which the Democrats nowadays take for granted for good, may have turned safe Republican in 20 years?

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A New Hope
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2021, 05:58:27 AM »

I think North Carolina will be a solid D state one day.  No joke.  Since 2004, it has an incredible generation gap in partisan and ideological views - give it time.

For the solid R states, I'd say the entire Midwest could become a red region, possibly even replacing the South as where most of the safe Republican seats are located.
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Jamison5
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2021, 06:46:35 AM »

Maybe Nevada, though I'm not sure that that is a good equivalent. They probably do not take it for granted, and it was not as blue as Virginia was red, and of course Nevada is voting to the right of the NPV now. Otherwise I could see Illinois becoming competitive if the rural areas match the rural areas in other states and if Cook County gets closer. In 2020, Illinois was actually closer to the NPV than Iowa was. Delaware was within 10 points of the NPV in 2016 and was still within 15 points of the NPV in 2020 with Biden's home state advantage. I do believe that the home state advantage tends to carry over a bit to the next cycle or two though, so it still could take a while for Delaware to really be competitive, or it might stay where it is. Before 2020 I would have said much of the Northeast like Maine and Connecticut as they had trended red since 2008, but that reversed itself in 2020 and perhaps had more to do with 3rd party votes in 2016.
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Arachno-Statism
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2021, 09:46:38 AM »

Florida could plausibly be a Democrat state in 20 years. I think it's more likely to remain a swing state, but there are scenarios where it can shift into the Democrats' column.
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The long-desired downfall of the Merkelized CDU
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2021, 09:47:13 AM »

Otherwise I could see Illinois becoming competitive if the rural areas match the rural areas in other states and if Cook County gets closer. In 2020, Illinois was actually closer to the NPV than Iowa was. Delaware was within 10 points of the NPV in 2016 and was still within 15 points of the NPV in 2020 with Biden's home state advantage. I do believe that the home state advantage tends to carry over a bit to the next cycle or two though, so it still could take a while for Delaware to really be competitive, or it might stay where it is. Before 2020 I would have said much of the Northeast like Maine and Connecticut as they had trended red since 2008, but that reversed itself in 2020 and perhaps had more to do with 3rd party votes in 2016.

Illinois is a very good suggestion. Without Trump on the ticket, Chicago's huge suburbs might swing back to the GOP column. The South and the West of Illinois have been heavily trending to the right, anyway.

Delaware, the forgotten state, is also a very good take. The GOP used to prove until 2010 that they are able to win Delaware statewide; either Kent or Sussex has voted Democrat, but never both counties since 2012.

What about Rhode Island? 2016 was pretty close, and there was even one county that voted for Trump.
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2021, 11:30:25 AM »

Delaware, the forgotten state, is also a very good take. The GOP used to prove until 2010 that they are able to win Delaware statewide; either Kent or Sussex has voted Democrat, but never both counties since 2012.

I mused in a prior thread on this topic:

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Margins for Dems are at times a bit close for comfort there, but the quirks of the state party and the high Democratic floor in the state are a fair bit to overcome. Maybe it could return to a prior state of downballot wonkiness (it had a Republican Treasurer from 1989 to 2019, for instance, and the governor's chair once favored Republicans), but it would take some more serious realignment for it to become federally competitive like it was in the latter half of the 20th century.
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The long-desired downfall of the Merkelized CDU
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2021, 01:20:56 PM »

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2021, 01:23:16 PM »

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?
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The long-desired downfall of the Merkelized CDU
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2021, 01:29:51 PM »

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?

Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose considerable support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.
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The Solace of My Labor Pains
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2021, 01:30:37 PM »

Hot take: NE-01, if Lancaster County keeps growing and the Lincoln metro spills over into other counties. Biden won Lancaster County by almost eight points last year, the best Democratic
performance there since LBJ, and the county's been growing very rapidly since the 80s.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2021, 01:32:59 PM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 01:54:41 PM by Roll Roons »

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?

Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.

None of those states are a lock for Democrats, but all three of them are very white. If Democrats do slip with black voters, these are among the last places where such a shift would hurt them.

The states I'd watch would be Georgia, Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, among others.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2021, 02:06:36 PM »

I mean, some would've definitely balked at Iowa becoming a red state in a hurry in 2011 or even 2013. Same goes for Georgia (flipping blue) in 2015 or 2017. As for a future one, I'm going to say Texas. I think a lot of people are convinced that it's "not there yet" after it wasn't as close as expected in 2020, but I could definitely see it flipping sooner than expected.
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Frémont Nationalist Kuumo
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2021, 04:08:50 PM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 04:21:19 PM by Frémont Nationalist Kuumo »

New Mexico will vote for a Trumpist Republican for president when hell freezes over.

In 2096, when a Democrat finally wins Alaska, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!"
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The Solace of My Labor Pains
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« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2021, 04:13:28 PM »

In 2096, when a Democrat finally wins Alaska, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!"

I still think that Alaska is among the likeliest of the Class of '64 states to break out of it next, especially considering coming ecological circumstances, but I think that people vastly underestimate the degree to which rhetoric on guns would need to shift and/or that the petrochemical industry would need to become less prominent in the state for a major shift to come about.
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The long-desired downfall of the Merkelized CDU
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« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2021, 04:13:45 PM »

New Mexico will vote for a reactionary Republican for president when hell freezes over.

Hell already froze over in 2004.
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Frémont Nationalist Kuumo
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2021, 04:20:45 PM »

New Mexico will vote for a reactionary Republican for president when hell freezes over.

Hell already froze over in 2004.


I should've written "Trumpist" instead of "reactionary." Some people seem to think that the transition of the GOP from "compassionate conservatism" under Bush to anti-intellectual faux populism under Trump makes New Mexico Safe D for the foreseeable future when Republicans actually have a good chance at winning it if they keep building on their 2020 gains with rural and blue collar Hispanics. New Mexico already voted to the right of Colorado and is not particularly educated or urban compared to many other Western states.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2021, 06:42:09 PM »

New Mexico and Alaska
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2021, 07:15:31 PM »

Kansas?
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gracile
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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2021, 07:58:54 PM »

Alaska comes to mind.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2021, 08:17:27 PM »

All of the states that are likely to flip in the next 5-10 years are already on people's radars now. 

Maybe some small western state that could change dramatically due to internal immigration, like Montana, Idaho, Utah.  Don't think any of them would flip though.  So if they did it would be the equivalent of Virginia 03.
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Teflon Joe.
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« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2021, 12:51:32 AM »
« Edited: April 09, 2021, 12:54:49 AM by Teflon Joe. »

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.
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Devils30
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« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2021, 10:03:33 PM »

Once a considerable amount of African Americans begin turning their backs on the Democrats, the dynamics that would evolve are going to be interesting in states like Delaware, Minnesota, or New England.

Why Minnesota and New England?

Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose considerable support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.

These are probably 3 of the 10 states with the lowest AA percentage. NH, ME are probably bottom 3-5.
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The long-desired downfall of the Merkelized CDU
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« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2021, 10:19:58 PM »

Because Minnesota and New Hampshire and Maine are quite purplish-blue states.
If Democrats lose considerable support among the AA community, those states may become lost for them.

These are probably 3 of the 10 states with the lowest AA percentage. NH, ME are probably bottom 3-5.

I know, but even small things matter sometimes. Wink
Imagine there lived zero African Americans in New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota, those states would have gone to Trump in 2016.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2021, 11:49:20 PM »

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.

For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2021, 11:52:26 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2021, 11:56:53 PM by Roll Roons »

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.

For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.

And that is pretty much exactly why the tipping point state went from voting to the left of the national popular vote to voting 4 points to the right of it.
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