What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?
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  What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?
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Author Topic: What is the closest current equivalent of Virginia '03?  (Read 1992 times)
MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2021, 04:39:44 PM »

2040s' Atlas posters nostalgically reminiscing about the good old days of "solidly Republican Alaska & solidly Democratic Hawaii" and continuing the well-established tradition of bumping decade-old threads would probably qualify. "When my dad* was posting here, Alaska was safe R and Hawaii was safe D, so what’s your point? Obviously current trends won’t last forever."

*hopefully not!

(someone bump this in the 2040s to see if I was right or wrong)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2021, 05:23:38 PM »

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.

And it's just going to get more skewed until/unless TX left of the nation actually happens!
For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.

And that is pretty much exactly why the tipping point state went from voting to the left of the national popular vote to voting 4 points to the right of it.
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WD
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« Reply #27 on: April 14, 2021, 05:37:54 PM »

Alaska, most likely.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: April 14, 2021, 05:47:25 PM »

And it's just going to get more skewed until/unless TX left of the nation actually happens!

Unless the D margin in CA is cut in half and there’s a D collapse in New England and the Northeast by the late 2020s, I agree with this. TX will basically hold the key to any future realignment/seismic shift of electoral coalitions, not unlike the role it played as a bellwether in previous realignment periods (e.g. the Solid South, the 'New' R South). So much depends on whether it remains competitive-ish (with either a very slight D or, more likely, R lean) or whether it’s about where CA was at this point in 1986.

In terms of a state undergoing a really dramatic ideological shift, then UT going from one of the most reliably 60%+ R states in the nation to a progressive stronghold in little more than a decade or two would fit the bill even more than AK & HI and would arguably represent one of the most rapid electoral transitions in the nation's history.
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S019
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« Reply #29 on: April 16, 2021, 08:27:40 AM »

Texas is the right answer here
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #30 on: April 16, 2021, 07:52:05 PM »

Doubtful. The next Republican will easily win it in his election and reelection. And then after that it’ll be like a FL margin for the GOP for sometime.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #31 on: April 18, 2021, 01:46:11 PM »

People failing to realize just how much of of New Mexico lives in Bernallilo or Santa Fe...
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #32 on: April 18, 2021, 02:05:05 PM »

And it's just going to get more skewed until/unless TX left of the nation actually happens!

Unless the D margin in CA is cut in half and there’s a D collapse in New England and the Northeast by the late 2020s, I agree with this. TX will basically hold the key to any future realignment/seismic shift of electoral coalitions, not unlike the role it played as a bellwether in previous realignment periods (e.g. the Solid South, the 'New' R South). So much depends on whether it remains competitive-ish (with either a very slight D or, more likely, R lean) or whether it’s about where CA was at this point in 1986.

In terms of a state undergoing a really dramatic ideological shift, then UT going from one of the most reliably 60%+ R states in the nation to a progressive stronghold in little more than a decade or two would fit the bill even more than AK & HI and would arguably represent one of the most rapid electoral transitions in the nation's history.




I just want to see Utah to blue..... ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I haven’t heard much about an R shift in Hawaii, could you elaborate on that?
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Samof94
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« Reply #33 on: April 20, 2021, 08:06:28 AM »

My hot take is TX. TX is going to be a 2-3 point loss in 2024 and will flip in 2028.

Republicans shouldn't be so arrogant about TX, if Democrats only won CA by 5.5 points then it would be full panic mode.

For context: Texas was slightly more than twice as Republican leaning in 2004 as California was Democratic that same election. We went from Texas R+23 and California D+10 in 2004 to Texas R+5.5 and California D+30 in 16 years.
2000’s Texas was about as winnable for Dems as California is for the GOP. The cities were not like they are today at the time.
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