Which states' long-term trends are you least sure about?

[MT Treasurer]

Are there any particular states which you could see trending either way over the next 20 years or so, or states where the range of plausible trajectories seems particularly wide?

[Utah Neolib]

Nevada. Hispanic voters could make it bluer, or redder at the same time. Clark County could continue growing, but Washoe has a decent chance of flipping

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see about NC, but if Jackson wins, it will be the next GA

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Texas.  There are a lot of competing trends and questions about what was a Trump-driven aberration versus what will continue going forward.

[Matty]

North carolina.

Texas

Michigan

Nevada

Alaska

[MT Treasurer]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll also throw in NH.... for now. After 2020, it was looking like the state was transitioning from lean D to solid D (with the liberalism of MA/VT increasingly "rubbing off on it," if you will), but I’ll reserve judgment until the 2022 elections, as there are signs that 2020 might have been a serious D overperformance and that the state is currently experiencing somewhat of a rightward shift. I could still see it turning into a solid D state for good, but it’s also reminding me a little of IA pre-2014 (the two states used to vote similarly before 2014, at least beginning in the 1990s), and Republicans do have room for gains in various parts of NH (so do Democrats, of course).

[Alben Barkley]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll also throw in NH.... for now. After 2020, it was looking like the state was transitioning from lean D to solid D (with the liberalism of MA/VT increasingly "rubbing off on it," if you will), but I’ll reserve judgment until the 2022 elections, as there are signs that 2020 might have been a serious D overperformance and that the state is currently experiencing somewhat of a rightward shift. I could still see it turning into a solid D state for good, but it’s also reminding me a little of IA pre-2014 (the two states used to vote similarly before 2014, at least beginning in the 1990s), and Republicans do have room for gains in various parts of NH (so do Democrats, of course).

NH literally just voted just as much D as IA did R, yet you would mercilessly mock someone who made this same mental gymnastics post about IA.

NH is not voting R on the presidential level any time soon.

Accept it.

[EastwoodS]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll also throw in NH.... for now. After 2020, it was looking like the state was transitioning from lean D to solid D (with the liberalism of MA/VT increasingly "rubbing off on it," if you will), but I’ll reserve judgment until the 2022 elections, as there are signs that 2020 might have been a serious D overperformance and that the state is currently experiencing somewhat of a rightward shift. I could still see it turning into a solid D state for good, but it’s also reminding me a little of IA pre-2014 (the two states used to vote similarly before 2014, at least beginning in the 1990s), and Republicans do have room for gains in various parts of NH (so do Democrats, of course).

NH literally just voted just as much D as IA did R, yet you would mercilessly mock someone who made this same mental gymnastics post about IA.

NH is not voting R on the presidential level any time soon.

Accept it.

TX too, accept it.

[Jamison5]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll also throw in NH.... for now. After 2020, it was looking like the state was transitioning from lean D to solid D (with the liberalism of MA/VT increasingly "rubbing off on it," if you will), but I’ll reserve judgment until the 2022 elections, as there are signs that 2020 might have been a serious D overperformance and that the state is currently experiencing somewhat of a rightward shift. I could still see it turning into a solid D state for good, but it’s also reminding me a little of IA pre-2014 (the two states used to vote similarly before 2014, at least beginning in the 1990s), and Republicans do have room for gains in various parts of NH (so do Democrats, of course).

NH literally just voted just as much D as IA did R, yet you would mercilessly mock someone who made this same mental gymnastics post about IA.

NH is not voting R on the presidential level any time soon.

Accept it.

Iowa voted 13 points to the right of the NPV while New Hampshire voted 2 points to the left of the NPV and you're going to act like that is the same? I agree with the other guy that New Hampshire has some weird and seemingly unpredictable trends sometimes and it really could move in either direction but I consider it to be lean D at the presidential level for now.

[It’s so Joever]

If it weren’t for Santander, I would say we should just ban all Kentucky av posters and use this thread as proof.

Anyways, to answer MT’s Question, I would say Arizona. Although yes it’s trending D now, I do wonder exactly if a potential R gain in urban votes (which I believe is likely) would offset that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Florida

[KaiserDave]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’ll also throw in NH.... for now. After 2020, it was looking like the state was transitioning from lean D to solid D (with the liberalism of MA/VT increasingly "rubbing off on it," if you will), but I’ll reserve judgment until the 2022 elections, as there are signs that 2020 might have been a serious D overperformance and that the state is currently experiencing somewhat of a rightward shift. I could still see it turning into a solid D state for good, but it’s also reminding me a little of IA pre-2014 (the two states used to vote similarly before 2014, at least beginning in the 1990s), and Republicans do have room for gains in various parts of NH (so do Democrats, of course).

I don't really see where you're coming from here. Where is the rightward shift in NH going to come from? All the high population areas aren't.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I admit that Texas looks quite muddled after 2020. It could very well be the new Florida in terms of a 50/50 microcosm of America.

I'm also less sure of Arizona than I was going into November 2020. 2022 will tell us quite a bit about Arizona's future, while we may have to wait until 2024/2026/2028 to gauge Texas' direction.

[OneJ]

I'm gonna be contrarian and throw out something different from all these battleground/swing states that are already on everyone's mind.

I'll say Mississippi.

1. Trump managed to gain votes here after two consecutive cycles in which GOP presidential candidates lost votes after 2008 (although it's not totally surprising since both Trump and Biden gained everywhere relative to the last election).

2. The state's overall population is stagnant.

3. Although the state did trend Republican this year most of the state's counties that are experiencing population growth (DeSoto, Madison, Rankin, Lamar, Lafayette, etc.) trended Dem this election which does make sense as they're either suburban/urban or contains a major university. While a good portion of rural Mississippi swung/trended towards Trump, many of them are declining and/or seem close to being maxed out.

4. Because I'm not sure whether or not the level of turnout from 2020 is sustainable in this state it does make me wonder how much it'll affect both parties and how much coalition shifting might change between now and 2024 with my main questions being will suburban MS whites continue to move toward Democrats and how much might rural white turnout, across the Pine Belt and the Northeast in particular, fall with Trump presumably not being on the ballot.