Will Florida be within 5 points?
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  Will Florida be within 5 points?
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Question: Will Florida be within a 5 point margin?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 101

Author Topic: Will Florida be within 5 points?  (Read 2654 times)
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #25 on: April 08, 2021, 03:16:16 AM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #26 on: April 08, 2021, 09:59:29 AM »

The Gaetz story is gonna hurt DeSantis chances in 2022/2024, Gaetz was the main reason why DeSantis got Elected, he call Gillium a Socialisic Afro American that would bring crime back to FL

Rubio is not affected by it, he doesn't praise Rush Limbaugh
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #27 on: April 08, 2021, 01:37:08 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #28 on: April 08, 2021, 02:29:22 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.

?
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #29 on: April 08, 2021, 02:36:41 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
I think FL is just destined to be Lean R. The state voted 5-7% to the left of the nation in 2010/14, and 3-4% to the right in 2004/08/12/16, and 7-8% to the right in 2018/20.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #30 on: April 08, 2021, 02:38:32 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.

?
I’m getting pissed off that Republicans aren’t allowed to claim new states into their column yet Democrats are saying “we’re expanding our MAp” they now think GA and AZ are theirs now and TX will be theirs tomm BUT GOD ING FORBID WE’RE ALLOWED TO CLAIM FLORIDA OR IOWA OR OHIO.
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Person Man
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« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2021, 02:47:10 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.

Maybe. It was like 13 points to the right of the nation as recently as 1988. The reason I wouldn't give up on Florida yet as a Democrat is because

1) The isn't that much more room for the large conservative Leisure Class to grow that much more.
2) The lockdowns scared a lot of people in the tourism industry away from Democrats when Republicans offered to ignore he pandemic
3) We don't know how the new minimum wage will change the dynamics of the state. Maybe it will make it harder to support a large Leisure Class or change who employees people in the state.
4) On the local level, Democrats haven't really tried in Florida for a generation now. $100M over the course of 6 weeks isn't the same as $10M over the course of 6 months.

Then again, maybe Florida and Arizona/Georgia/Texas are switching places because

1) Immigration and Civil Rights aren't as big of issue to local minority communities as having an expansionist foreign policy or being "against socialism". Attitudes on things like abortion aren't as conservative as you think, however.
2) Maybe the COVID thing will be the reverse version of the Farm Crisis that only subsides over the course of 25+ years. In the 2020s and 2030s, Florida might be the unique conservative urban state the way Iowa was that weird liberal rural state.
3) Florida really isn't that "urban".
4) Some of Florida's minorities are miscategorized and many of them would pass as and otherwise consider themselves white except to maybe "own teh libz".
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2021, 08:13:05 PM »

The Florida/DeSantis threads are the most ridiculous ones on here lately.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2021, 11:28:45 PM »

I don't know how much DeSantis would benefit from FL being his home state, but maybe he gains 3 points of margin. If he's the nominee my baseline Florida prediction is R+8.

If he's not it's R+3.5. I think the Republican nominee will on average do a little better nationally but worse relatively in Florida. Trump was quite a good fit for the state, rural Whites and the Cubans both liked him, but I expect Dem investment to decrease here so that will counter the worse fit.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #34 on: April 10, 2021, 09:42:26 AM »

I’m getting pissed off that Republicans aren’t allowed to claim new states into their column yet Democrats are saying “we’re expanding our MAp” they now think GA and AZ are theirs now and TX will be theirs tomm BUT GOD ING FORBID WE’RE ALLOWED TO CLAIM FLORIDA OR IOWA OR OHIO.

I literally just said Florida has made a big move to the right but ok
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #35 on: April 10, 2021, 11:15:15 AM »

Closer to 5 than 0, but yeah, I think it'll still be in the margin.
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DS0816
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« Reply #36 on: April 10, 2021, 12:48:41 PM »

Will Florida be decided within a 5 point margin in 2024?

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold for U.S. President…yes.

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President…no.
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Chips
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« Reply #37 on: May 13, 2021, 04:05:55 PM »

Yes.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #38 on: May 13, 2021, 04:33:36 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2021, 04:38:46 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.


How am my a hack and Trump only won FL by 300 K votes that's well within margin of error

Yes, Crist and DeSantis race will be close because DeSantis isn't winning by double digits unless Rs win the PVI by at least 5 and D's lead by 5 pts in Generic ballot

Rubio will win he has cross over appeal to even Afro Americans and DeSantis doesn't have cross over appeal just like Blacks like DeWine but like Tim Ryan that's why Ryan was tied with Rs
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #39 on: May 14, 2021, 02:58:24 AM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.


How am my a hack and Trump only won FL by 300 K votes that's well within margin of error

Yes, Crist and DeSantis race will be close because DeSantis isn't winning by double digits unless Rs win the PVI by at least 5 and D's lead by 5 pts in Generic ballot

Rubio will win he has cross over appeal to even Afro Americans and DeSantis doesn't have cross over appeal just like Blacks like DeWine but like Tim Ryan that's why Ryan was tied with Rs

EastwoodS is the real hack, their posts aren't even worth responding to. All ad hominems, all bad faith. Do yourself a favor and put them on ignore.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #40 on: May 14, 2021, 04:10:14 AM »

The Florida/DeSantis threads are the most ridiculous ones on here lately.

A month later and they've never stopped.

It's gonna be a long 3 years on here.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #41 on: May 14, 2021, 06:59:54 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2021, 07:05:59 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

I know DeSantis is favored in Reelection but FL is a close state, he isn't guarenteed Reelection since he has been a partisan R not reaching out to Blks, non Cuban Arab and Latinos and females when he praised Trump due to Insurrectionists

D's already leads the Generic ballot 5.0


If DeSantis was so assured of Reelection why did he sign voter suppression, his lead is 6 pts not 10 otherwise Rs will be assured a PVI victory of plus 5

As I said in previous thread we didn't win 33 H seats the Summer of 2017 we won them in Fall of 2018, wave insurance seats are the last to Fall, and Crist has the money to win or Fried, Primary between Fried and CRIST is gonna get close, Val Deming's isn't gonna be competetive
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #42 on: May 14, 2021, 07:07:50 AM »

The Florida/DeSantis threads are the most ridiculous ones on here lately.

A month later and they've never stopped.

It's gonna be a long 3 years on here.


Twitter started DeSantis threads due to fact is good looking, but he is a follower of Trump, not a liberal Hollywood celebrity, that's why he is 17 pts behind Biden

Hollywood celebrities want to end Citizens United like George Clooney, DeSANTIS wants to oil drill
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #43 on: May 14, 2021, 09:44:39 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2021, 09:50:44 PM by TodayJunior »

Yes. As I’ve stated on other Florida threads, both parties currently have a floor of 47% no matter who the candidates are, assuming a two-person race with no signifiant third party candidacy (see FL-Sen 2010 for this exception). That 5-6% slice of the vote hinges on turnout, and right now, the gop clearly has the edge.

Now, to be fair, these trends are only true until they’re not, so if some unforeseen collapse occurs on either side, that would render the previous statement null and void.
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Devils30
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« Reply #44 on: May 14, 2021, 10:28:56 PM »

If Florida goes R+5 I would not be stunned, but if it's D+1 in a good Biden 2024 year no one should be as well. One thing that is clear for now is that FL is like reverse Minnesota...only going blue in a 7%+ national Dem win.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #45 on: May 15, 2021, 09:38:40 AM »

It'll only be R+5 if the GOP wins the White House.
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Devils30
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« Reply #46 on: May 15, 2021, 09:49:27 AM »

It'll only be R+5 if the GOP wins the White House.

If DeSantis is the nominee there's definitely a chance FL is R+5 but Biden still wins AZ, GA, PA, MI, WI.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #47 on: May 15, 2021, 10:40:25 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2021, 10:48:33 AM by 215 till I die »

It'll only be R+5 if the GOP wins the White House.

If DeSantis is the nominee there's definitely a chance FL is R+5 but Biden still wins AZ, GA, PA, MI, WI.
Fair point, though I could easily see Florida being ~R+4.5-4.75 instead in such a scenario. Another factor is Rs will likely continue having an institutional party advantage in statewide races considering the tire fire the FL Dem Party is. For all the chatter about Miami-Dade, the Dems true collapse has been in the I-4 corridor and the rural forests near the Big Bend. Perhaps the state is still worth making a play for because without it the GOP is done.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #48 on: May 15, 2021, 10:45:50 AM »

Nah, DeSantis will beat Harris by 12 including flipping Miami-Dade.

Kidding aside, yup, the state will be within 5 pts. Don't think Dems should write a state worth 30 EVs off and instead learn from 2020. We need better Hispanic outreach and a better groundgame, especially doorknocks.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #49 on: May 15, 2021, 12:17:34 PM »

Of course it will Minorities and females are underpolled, if the Rs really weren't that concerned about FL, they wouldn't have signed those voter suppression laws, if we maintain the Trifecta and net gain seats in 2022 those voter laws will be repealed.

Voters aren't gonna stop voting due to voting suppression
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