When will Florida elect a democratic senator again?

[Bootes Void]

This is tough but for now I'll lean to 2028 but could easily be beyond 2030.

[Left Wing]

Never (sane)

[brucejoel99]

Again? Yes. Ever is a long time.

[SnowLabrador]

Not until the next realignment.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Beyond 2030, maybe around 2040.

[S019]

It could be as early as 2024, 2028 is also possible, not 2022, but it could be any election after that

[Roll Roons]

Not 2022. 2024 is possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 Alan Grayson the Election is 500 days from now, but if you don't agree, I will put it on my prediction map and you can put it Safe R on your Prediction map, Rs don't have a monopoly on FL, OH, NC or IA, don't underestimate Biden when he campaigns for D's next yr

Whenever the Predictions come out

[I’m not Stu]

Starr County, TX will vote Republican before Florida elects another Democratic Senator. Starr County, TX has the country's longest streak of voting for a Democrat for president.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't underestimate the legs that the Gaetz story has and last poll had Rubio up only six and DeSantis tied


Election is 500 days from now, yes Hassan is trailing and WARNOCK is in trouble too but Rs have more retirements than Ds

[Xing]

It's mathematically impossible. My infallible Flormula, as follows, shows:

R_Marg = (D_Gen + R_Gen)/FL_Elect ≈ 0.01263947

R_Marg = (D_Gen + R_Rubio)/FL_Elect ≈ 20.82954631

R_Marg = ((D_Sanders + R_Gen)/FL_Elect) × SOCIAL_ομγ ≈ 35.91765278

R_Marg = ((D_Sanders + R_Rubio)/FL_Elect) × SOCIAL_ομγ = ∞

Therefore, the Florida theorem rules out the possibility of a Democratic victory.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Beyond 2030. It's not happening anytime soon, but as Brucejoel said, "never" is a long time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's mathematically impossible. My infallible Flormula, as follows, shows:

R_Marg = (D_Gen + R_Gen)/FL_Elect ≈ 0.01263947

R_Marg = (D_Gen + R_Rubio)/FL_Elect ≈ 20.82954631

R_Marg = ((D_Sanders + R_Gen)/FL_Elect) × SOCIAL_ομγ ≈ 35.91765278

R_Marg = ((D_Sanders + R_Rubio)/FL_Elect) × SOCIAL_ομγ = ∞

Therefore, the Florida theorem rules out the possibility of a Democratic victory.

You really think FL which was won by 3.0 by Trump within margin of error is gonna vote R.

African Americans Latinos and females make up Majority of the voting block in FL, and Cali



Male users always underestimate female vote that's why Hassan still has a chance

[Tekken_Guy]

Sadly, Nelson will likely the last Democratic senator to win for quite some time. In fact, I have a feeling Democrats will not win a single statewide election for at least a decade.

[Progressive Pessimist]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

Alot of the Seniors are D due to AARP, female Seniors in FL are monolithic Sicilians, that have become Dem in recent yrs due to Great Recession, Jeb and Bush were really the last Rs to galvanized Seniors the way they did

The last poll had D's within six points of Rubio, it's wave insurance but it's 500 days til Election


Let's see next yr what polls are like

[Meatball Ron]

The composting on this thread (or, in the case of GOP posters, wishful thinking) is crazy. Am I bullish on Dems in Florida right now? Of course not, and for good reason. But the idea that it'll be "never" or that we can say with confidence "beyond 2030" is crazy. You're all talking about this state like it's Tennessee or Arkansas, when really, it's not even nearly as perilous as Ohio or Iowa. Remember that the majority of the statewide losses in the last several years have been by just a percentage point or two. It could be 2024 or 2028 if the Dems are having a strong night presidentially, or 2030 if a GOP President is having a bad midterm. Dems have sh*t the bed in this state lately, no doubt, and I'd rather be a Republican candidate here, but this is still a swing state.

[Skill and Chance]

2030's R president midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2030's R president midterm

No, when the Rs keep losing the PVI, they are gonna lose OH, IA, NC and FL again, TRUMP won FL and overperformed in poll before Jan 6

[ultraviolet]

Beyond 2030. 2030 is not even that far, it’s only one non-Rubio election away

[Skill and Chance]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

If it continues to be a retiree destination, what happens when millennials are eventually the new seniors?  That is probably the most plausible scenario for how Florida flips back. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Skill and Chance doesn't believe when you keep losing the PVI, FL OH, NC, and IA aren't safe for the Rs and that's the bottom line, these states were won by D's before and they will be won again by D's, 2008/12 you will see.

A typical Midterm you see Approvals of inparty at 43 percent, Biden has a 53 Percent Approvals, Generic ballot shows it D4 my friend that's WI, PA, NC, OH and FL net pickups if it becomes reality

[Calthrina950]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

If it continues to be a retiree destination, what happens when millennials are eventually the new seniors? That is probably the most plausible scenario for how Florida flips back.  

That's not going to happen until c. 2047, when the first millennials begin to turn 65. Hopefully, Florida will be won by the Democrats before then. As of right now, my best guess for the year we'll see the next Democratic Senator elected from the state is 2030. Rubio will be easily re-elected next year and will probably win a fourth term in 2028. Scott (assuming he doesn't launch a bid for the Republican presidential nomination), will probably win a second term in 2024, although by a narrower margin than Rubio, and will likely retire when 2030 comes around.

[Progressive Pessimist]

When seniors stop flocking down there and perpetually replenishing themselves as a major voting bloc, and when Miami-Dade starts consistently voting like they did in 2016 for Clinton all while Democratic support is sustained elsewhere in the state.

So in other words: never.

If it continues to be a retiree destination, what happens when millennials are eventually the new seniors?  That is probably the most plausible scenario for how Florida flips back. 

Who knows what our politics will be like by then though? And what if most millennial feel how I do about it and prefer different retirement destinations by then? But fine, I'll give you this, "never" is indeed a bit too strong of a word. But certainly I am convinced that it's going to require a Doug Jones-esque fluke for the foreseeable future. At least for ten to twenty years.

[sting in the rafters]

Whenever the infrastructure gap in FL closes between the two parties. GOP does so well there because their field operation is vastly superior. Until Ds can reverse the party registration gap, FL will be Lean R and closer to Likely R than Toss-up.