I chose Virginia because it's currently generally a more socially and fiscally conservative state,
with more people identifying as Liberals in Oregon (28% Liberal) than in Virginia (24% Liberal).The Democratic Party in Oregon consistently wins elections with greater margins than the Democratic Party in Virginia, and even though the margin difference in the two-state has tightened throughout the last two decades, the speed of this tightening is slowing down, with 2020 being the first year Oregon trended more Democratic than Virginia since 2004.
Not to mention the minority groups that Republicans have been trying to target recently and plan to target moving forward are far more prevalent in Virginia, which is much more diverse than Oregon.
Oregon has Proud Boys and inbred Republican legislators who did that state-fleeing stunt a couple of years ago. Plus, Portland is not as big as DC or Seattle, it's like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.
Portland may not be as big as D.C. or Seattle, but relative to its state's population size, it's just as big. The Portland metro area has continued to expand quickly over the last decade while Rural Oregon, and its "Proud Boys and inbred Republican legislators" make up a smaller and smaller portion of the state with every year that passes.
For example, at the time of the 2010 census, the parts of the Portland metro area which were in Oregon totalled 1.79 million people,
making up 46.7% of Oregon's population (which was 3.83 million).
And in 2019, the parts of the Portland metro area in Oregon held 1.99 million people,
making up 47.2% of the state's population (at 4.22 million).
Not to mention Portland's metro area is getting more Democratic.
- In 2012, Portland's metro area voted for Obama 62.6% - 33.9% (margin of 28.7%).
- In 2016, Portland's metro area voted for Clinton 60.3% - 28.8% (margin of 31.5%).
- In 2020, Portland's metro area voted for Biden 66.8% - 30.0% (margin of 36.8%).
The point is that the hyper-progressive Portland metro area has been both getting more Democratic and has been increasing its proportion of the entire state's population, and this means that
Republicans have to make inroads with Portland's ultra-liberal population if they want to win Oregon.
I'm not sure why so many of you think Oregon is more likely to flip than Virginia. As Alben Barkley has said, things are only gonna get worse for the Republicans in Oregon (provided that current trends continue). Maybe it's just perception, and because now that Oregon's out of the political spotlight, people don't notice it's trends anymore?
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