More likely to flip? Virginia or Oregon?

[Meatball Ron]

Virginia, but Oregon’s suburbs are turning against the Demonrats pretty fast.

Source?

Looking at the counties adjacent to Multnomah County (Portland), I'm seeing:

Columbia: Trump +12 in 2016; Trump +10 in 2020
Hood River: Clinton +30 in 2016; Biden +37 in 2020
Clackamas: Clinton +6 in 2016; Biden +11 in 2020
Washington: Clinton +26 in 2016; Biden +35 in 2020

Maybe you are aware of a better proxy for identifying vote totals specifically in the "Portland suburbs" but would be interested to see your evidence of this because I'm coming up blank.

[Meatball Ron]

This forum has a weird obsession with Oregon becoming a swing state. It's not going to happen. At least not in the next 10-20 years.

Al Gore's 0.4% win was 21 years ago (Funny how folks overlook Nader's 5% there) and using the Proud Boys as an excuse is like saying California is gonna flip soon because of the number of hate groups in Southern California.

And despite conventional wisdom, Californians (Especially left-leaning types) aren't just moving to Texas & Arizona.

When a Democratic Presidential candidate wins Oregon by 4%, then I'll believe it.

Oregon could be a swing state; Alek Skarlatos could beat DeFazio in 2022, if he has a good political career, he could be presidential material and could help the GOP carry Oregon....

I regret to inform you that it's a redistricting year and Dems have a trifecta in Oregon, meaning DeFazio will be shored up. Wasserman has posted some pretty clean example maps that result in all districts in the state being Clinton +10 or more, save the GOP pack in the eastern part of the state of course.

But also, even if Skarlatos did have a pathway to relevance, one promising candidate does not a swing state make (see: Nicole Galloway, among others).