More likely to flip? Virginia or Oregon?
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April 21, 2021, 03:24:54 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  More likely to flip? Virginia or Oregon?
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Question: ?
#1
Virginia
 
#2
Oregon
 
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Total Voters: 70

Author Topic: More likely to flip? Virginia or Oregon?  (Read 790 times)
khuzifenq
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« Reply #25 on: April 08, 2021, 01:32:34 PM »

If Republican inroads with Asian American voters increase, Oregon could get interesting down the road.

Oregon is less than 5% Asian, which I'm told is less than Virginia's. It's still higher than most states but I would say the only state where inroads with Asian American voters could ever deliver the GOP victory on their own is Hawaii - where a monumental shift would be required. Point being, they need a bit more than Asian Americans for the GOP to take the state.

Even then itís worth noting that HI Asians are different from Mainland US Asians. And AAPI Data suggested that Asian-only turnout in HI was actually down from 2016 in 2020, even as overall turnout increased. http://aapidata.com/blog/2020-vote-media-guide-march25/



Iím skeptical of Asian Americans trending significantly R given the direction the national GOP has taken from 2000 onward. If the West Coast starts swinging R, it will be more from inroads with Latinos than with Asians, and whatever inroads we may see with Asians will be more apparent in CA, WA, and NV than OR.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2021, 01:48:42 PM »

I'd say Oregon. The Republicans are probably going to stop campaigning in Virginia.
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