More likely to flip? Virginia or Oregon?

[Bootes Void]

Which of the two states do republicans have a greater chance of flipping?

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Neither, but I would frankly say Virginia out of the two.

Or would I?

[CookieDamage]

Now? Virginia, barely.

Maybe in 10 years? Oregon.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Both have a less than 0.1% chance of flipping.

[Alben Barkley]

Now? Virginia, barely.

Maybe in 10 years? Oregon.

Why? I see nothing in Oregon’s near-future that could make it competitive for Republicans, if anything it will probably just keep getting worse for them.

[Roll Roons]

I guess Virginia, because it was closer. But realistically, both are Safe D.

[CookieDamage]

Now? Virginia, barely.

Maybe in 10 years? Oregon.

Why? I see nothing in Oregon’s near-future that could make it competitive for Republicans, if anything it will probably just keep getting worse for them.

I'm not saying that it will be. I'm just saying that if one of them has to flip in like a decade or so, it will be oregon before virginia, and I base that off the explosive growth in NOVA.

[neostassenite31]

Now? Virginia, barely.

Maybe in 10 years? Oregon.

Why? I see nothing in Oregon’s near-future that could make it competitive for Republicans, if anything it will probably just keep getting worse for them.

I'm not saying that it will be. I'm just saying that if one of them has to flip in like a decade or so, it will be oregon before virginia, and I base that off the explosive growth in NOVA.

Western Oregon, especially the suburbs around Portland, are growing at a pace on par with NOVA. In any case the PVI of OR is D+6 this cycle while for VA it is at D+2

[Non Swing Voter]

This thread needs more choices.  I would add Hawaii, DC, and Maryland to the list.

[Motorcity]

Hmmmm

I say Oregon

[Xing]

0% = 0%, but Virginia will be "closer."

[PSOL]

Virginia, but Oregon’s suburbs are turning against the Demonrats pretty fast.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Oregon

[Suburbia]

Oregon

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Oregon has Proud Boys and inbred Republican legislators who did that state-fleeing stunt a couple of years ago. Plus, Portland is not as big as DC or Seattle, it's like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither

[Meatball Ron]

Virginia, but Oregon’s suburbs are turning against the Demonrats pretty fast.

Source?

Looking at the counties adjacent to Multnomah County (Portland), I'm seeing:

Columbia: Trump +12 in 2016; Trump +10 in 2020
Hood River: Clinton +30 in 2016; Biden +37 in 2020
Clackamas: Clinton +6 in 2016; Biden +11 in 2020
Washington: Clinton +26 in 2016; Biden +35 in 2020

Maybe you are aware of a better proxy for identifying vote totals specifically in the "Portland suburbs" but would be interested to see your evidence of this because I'm coming up blank.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Oregon has Proud Boys and inbred Republican legislators who did that state-fleeing stunt a couple of years ago. Plus, Portland is not as big as DC or Seattle, it's like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.

Virginia has Vexiteers, the Wolves of Vinland, the children of "massive resistance", and assorted Appalachian skinheads to call its own, and perhaps they're more agitated since they spend more time around non-white people than those in vanilla-toned Oregon. It also has far less of a genuine left-leaning tendency than those in Portland, Eugene, or smaller towns like Corvallis or Ashland, and so may be more likely to return to the fold with a sufficiently friendly candidate.

Neither is flipping, so it's a moot point, but both have clear underbellies of agitation.

[Biden his time]

I chose Virginia because it's currently generally a more socially and fiscally conservative state, with more people identifying as Liberals in Oregon (28% Liberal) than in Virginia (24% Liberal).

The Democratic Party in Oregon consistently wins elections with greater margins than the Democratic Party in Virginia, and even though the margin difference in the two-state has tightened throughout the last two decades, the speed of this tightening is slowing down, with 2020 being the first year Oregon trended more Democratic than Virginia since 2004.

Not to mention the minority groups that Republicans have been trying to target recently and plan to target moving forward are far more prevalent in Virginia, which is much more diverse than Oregon.

Oregon has Proud Boys and inbred Republican legislators who did that state-fleeing stunt a couple of years ago. Plus, Portland is not as big as DC or Seattle, it's like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.

Portland may not be as big as D.C. or Seattle, but relative to its state's population size, it's just as big. The Portland metro area has continued to expand quickly over the last decade while Rural Oregon, and its "Proud Boys and inbred Republican legislators" make up a smaller and smaller portion of the state with every year that passes.

For example, at the time of the 2010 census, the parts of the Portland metro area which were in Oregon totalled 1.79 million people, making up 46.7% of Oregon's population (which was 3.83 million).

And in 2019, the parts of the Portland metro area in Oregon held 1.99 million people, making up 47.2% of the state's population (at 4.22 million).

Not to mention Portland's metro area is getting more Democratic.

• In 2012, Portland's metro area voted for Obama 62.6% - 33.9% (margin of 28.7%).
• In 2016, Portland's metro area voted for Clinton 60.3% - 28.8% (margin of 31.5%).
• In 2020, Portland's metro area voted for Biden 66.8% - 30.0% (margin of 36.8%).

The point is that the hyper-progressive Portland metro area has been both getting more Democratic and has been increasing its proportion of the entire state's population, and this means that Republicans have to make inroads with Portland's ultra-liberal population if they want to win Oregon.


I'm not sure why so many of you think Oregon is more likely to flip than Virginia. As Alben Barkley has said, things are only gonna get worse for the Republicans in Oregon (provided that current trends continue). Maybe it's just perception, and because now that Oregon's out of the political spotlight, people don't notice it's trends anymore?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This forum has a weird obsession with Oregon becoming a swing state. It's not going to happen. At least not in the next 10-20 years.

Al Gore's 0.4% win was 21 years ago (Funny how folks overlook Nader's 5% there) and using the Proud Boys as an excuse is like saying California is gonna flip soon because of the number of hate groups in Southern California.

And despite conventional wisdom, Californians (Especially left-leaning types) aren't just moving to Texas & Arizona.

When a Democratic Presidential candidate wins Oregon by 4%, then I'll believe it.

[Heebie Jeebie]

If Republican inroads with Asian American voters increase, Oregon could get interesting down the road.

[Suburbia]

This forum has a weird obsession with Oregon becoming a swing state. It's not going to happen. At least not in the next 10-20 years.

Al Gore's 0.4% win was 21 years ago (Funny how folks overlook Nader's 5% there) and using the Proud Boys as an excuse is like saying California is gonna flip soon because of the number of hate groups in Southern California.

And despite conventional wisdom, Californians (Especially left-leaning types) aren't just moving to Texas & Arizona.

When a Democratic Presidential candidate wins Oregon by 4%, then I'll believe it.

Oregon could be a swing state; Alek Skarlatos could beat DeFazio in 2022, if he has a good political career, he could be presidential material and could help the GOP carry Oregon....

[Meatball Ron]

This forum has a weird obsession with Oregon becoming a swing state. It's not going to happen. At least not in the next 10-20 years.

Al Gore's 0.4% win was 21 years ago (Funny how folks overlook Nader's 5% there) and using the Proud Boys as an excuse is like saying California is gonna flip soon because of the number of hate groups in Southern California.

And despite conventional wisdom, Californians (Especially left-leaning types) aren't just moving to Texas & Arizona.

When a Democratic Presidential candidate wins Oregon by 4%, then I'll believe it.

Oregon could be a swing state; Alek Skarlatos could beat DeFazio in 2022, if he has a good political career, he could be presidential material and could help the GOP carry Oregon....

I regret to inform you that it's a redistricting year and Dems have a trifecta in Oregon, meaning DeFazio will be shored up. Wasserman has posted some pretty clean example maps that result in all districts in the state being Clinton +10 or more, save the GOP pack in the eastern part of the state of course.

But also, even if Skarlatos did have a pathway to relevance, one promising candidate does not a swing state make (see: Nicole Galloway, among others).

[beesley]

If Republican inroads with Asian American voters increase, Oregon could get interesting down the road.

Oregon is less than 5% Asian, which I'm told is less than Virginia's. It's still higher than most states but I would say the only state where inroads with Asian American voters could ever deliver the GOP victory on their own is Hawaii - where a monumental shift would be required. Point being, they need a bit more than Asian Americans for the GOP to take the state.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If Republican inroads with Asian American voters increase, Oregon could get interesting down the road.

Unlikely for both states, but I'd be more panicked about Washington in such a scenario.

Besides, Biden did as well as Obama '08 among Asians. Whose to say "Republican inroads" are really just Asians gravitating to incumbents (Such as the last few elections in Hawaii)?