2020 post-mortem for the Hispanic vote

[Wormless Gourd]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d30982b599bde00016db472/t/60668f2a28dee76b4ffebc73/1617334072783/Equis+Post-Mortem+Part+One+%28Public+Deck%29+%281%29.pdf

Interesting, big and useful analysis on the Hispanic vote in 2020 by Equis.
- Latino swings were due to a mix of turnout mobilization and voter persuasion, with South Texas heavy on the former and Miami-Dade heavier on the latter
- Conservative Hispanics started to align with and turnout for Republicans
- Younger, non-college women had the strongest swings to Republicans(though are still one of the most Dem groups within Hispanics).
- Liberal Hispanics lost motivation to vote in key swing states, conservative Hispanic motivation rose considerably leading up to election day. Female conservatives saw the biggest increase in motivation.
- Hispanics consistently gave Trump high marks for the economy, disagreements on immigration took a backseat

Miami-Dade;
- ~15% of Cuban Clinton voters in Miami-Dade voted for Trump in 2020
- Trump gained much more with Central-South Americans then Cubans
- Largest groups of new Hispanic voters were aged 35-49, 18-24, then 50-64

South TX;
- Turnout of low-propensity voters drove the rightward swing, many hadn't voted once since 2014

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d30982b599bde00016db472/t/60668f2a28dee76b4ffebc73/1617334072783/Equis+Post-Mortem+Part+One+%28Public+Deck%29+%281%29.pdf

Interesting, big and useful analysis on the Hispanic vote in 2020 by Equis.
- Latino swings were due to a mix of turnout mobilization and voter persuasion, with South Texas heavy on the former and Miami-Dade heavier on the latter
- Conservative Hispanics started to align with and turnout for Republicans
- Younger, non-college women had the strongest swings to Republicans(though are still one of the most Dem groups within Hispanics).
- Liberal Hispanics lost motivation to vote in key swing states, conservative Hispanic motivation rose considerably leading up to election day. Female conservatives saw the biggest increase in motivation.
- Hispanics consistently gave Trump high marks for the economy, disagreements on immigration took a backseat

Wow, just look at the dropoff in "liberal" motivation in NV and the increases in "conservative" motivation in NC and NV... Don't tell me there wasn't an anti-lockdown vote lol








I'm surprised how many new 2020 voters there were in general. The nonwhite R swings aren't necessarily bad for Dems if they simply reflect right-leaning voters in Safe states bothering to turn out, which was definitely the case for Latinos in many areas.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The Nevada specific results were interesting.

[Alcibiades]

Very interesting. A few questions this throws up:

— What drove increased turnout/motivation, and why was this specific to Hispanics and Asians (white and black turnout was comparatively stagnant according to this)? Why were new Hispanic voters mostly pro-Trump?
— If, as the report suggests, Covid was a major factor in this, why did Hispanics respond more negatively to lockdowns than other groups? More broadly, why was Covid a positive for Trump among Hispanics when it hurt him among the rest of the electorate?
— How was a pro-Trump Hispanic media bubble able to be engineered between 2019 and 2020? Cuban talk radio, for instance, was a major factor in driving conservative opinion among the community in the 80s, 90s and early 00s, but seemed to have all but disappeared as a key political influence in Miami. How was a conservative Hispanic media bubble resurrected in South FL and elsewhere in the past 2 years?
— Should the GOP stop talking about immigration? Will the number of Hispanic voters gained outweigh the number of WWC voters potentially lost?
— Slightly off-topic but: massive swings in Miami-Dade extended beyond just Cubans and Latin Americans, into black and white communities. Why? And was the Hispanic swing in Miami more of a Miami thing than a Hispanic thing?
— While basic maths might suggest that Trump gains in the RGV were more due to him turning out previous nonvoters than persuasion, is it actually realistic that 90%+ of new voters there went for Trump? Was vote-switching in fact a key part of the equation in the RGV, and if so, why?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Very interesting. A few questions this throws up:

— What drove increased turnout/motivation, and why was this specific to Hispanics and Asians (white and black turnout was comparatively stagnant according to this)? Why were new Hispanic voters mostly pro-Trump?

Latinos and Asians historically have had lower turnout rates due to mostly being from immigrant communities that arrived post-1965. Many came from countries (especially ones in Asia) that don't have strong cultures of civic engagement.

— If, as the report suggests, Covid was a major factor in this, why did Hispanics respond more negatively to lockdowns than other groups? More broadly, why was Covid a positive for Trump among Hispanics when it hurt him among the rest of the electorate?

Disproportionate employment in service/hospitality sectors that were affected by lockdowns (probably more of a Sunbelt thing), but at least with Mexicans in the Western US, this:  

An overlooked factor regarding Hispanics, IMO, is that Hispanic culture is uniquely community-based and intergenerational and thus much more opposed to COVID restrictions than most.

— How was a pro-Trump Hispanic media bubble able to be engineered between 2019 and 2020? Cuban talk radio, for instance, was a major factor in driving conservative opinion among the community in the 80s, 90s and early 00s, but seemed to have all but disappeared as a key political influence in Miami. How was a conservative Hispanic media bubble resurrected in South FL and elsewhere in the past 2 years?

There's been some discussion of Alex Otaola on here. I don't think there was any equivalent to him for any other ethnic/cultural group that swung hard R.

This is 100% correct- however, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, the Florida Democratic Party,Biden's campaign, and Biden himself all failed in organizing, outreach, and messaging and got complacent and the right went into full disinformation/propaganda mode in the county. Spanish radio down there has a lot of Rush Limbaugh personalities as well as incredibly over the top and effective propaganda. Read this to get an insight into it: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/meet-the-youtube-star-whos-pushing-a-generation-of-floridas-cuban-voters-to-trump/

— Slightly off-topic but: massive swings in Miami-Dade extended beyond just Cubans and Latin Americans, into black and white communities. Why? And was the Hispanic swing in Miami more of a Miami thing than a Hispanic thing?

Probably a Miami thing, and also possibly a resort thing

[Devils30]

Very interesting. You wonder if these new GOP Hispanic voters will show up for them in 2022. If not then their task of winning AZ NV Senate seats get a lot harder.

[mileslunn]

Somewhat surprised COVID-19 helped Trump as I believe Hispanics were hit much harder than white community was and a high percentage relatively speaking died so I would have thought deaths in their community would have hurt Trump?

[Devils30]

Somewhat surprised COVID-19 helped Trump as I believe Hispanics were hit much harder than white community was and a high percentage relatively speaking died so I would have thought deaths in their community would have hurt Trump?

The increase in low propensity approval for Trump is the dynamic that could sink the GOP in 22. I bet that is a lot of the polling error we saw, although non-heavy Latino states in the midwest had a much larger polling miss than AZ, TX, NV

[Pericles]

Somewhat surprised COVID-19 helped Trump as I believe Hispanics were hit much harder than white community was and a high percentage relatively speaking died so I would have thought deaths in their community would have hurt Trump?

The increase in low propensity approval for Trump is the dynamic that could sink the GOP in 22. I bet that is a lot of the polling error we saw, although non-heavy Latino states in the midwest had a much larger polling miss than AZ, TX, NV

The problem is that non college-educated whites barely swung to the Democrats in 2020 either. Even if Biden had retained Hillary's minority support, he only would have gotten narrow wins in the old 'Blue Wall', and the swing among white Floridians was so small that Trump would have won the state by a Rick Scott 2018 margin anyway. It didn't help, but it wasn't the primary reason that 2020 wasn't a blue wave.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Somewhat surprised COVID-19 helped Trump as I believe Hispanics were hit much harder than white community was and a high percentage relatively speaking died so I would have thought deaths in their community would have hurt Trump?

The increase in low propensity approval for Trump is the dynamic that could sink the GOP in 22. I bet that is a lot of the polling error we saw, although non-heavy Latino states in the midwest had a much larger polling miss than AZ, TX, NV

The problem is that non college-educated whites barely swung to the Democrats in 2020 either. Even if Biden had retained Hillary's minority support, he only would have gotten narrow wins in the old 'Blue Wall', and the swing among white Floridians was so small that Trump would have won the state by a Rick Scott 2018 margin anyway. It didn't help, but it wasn't the primary reason that 2020 wasn't a blue wave.

The upside for Democrats is that, at least in theory, their dominant gains with upper middle class suburbia should give them the turnout edge in the midterms that Republicans have held since the 90s.

Of course in reality the midterms will be decided by whatever crazy nonsense is happening in 2022 which is basically impossible to predict. Approximately 90% of the things Trump did prior to COVID appear to have done literally nothing to shift people's opinions of him; the vast majority of his voters last time (including most of the WWC rural/exurban midwesterners that Biden was supposed to flip) voted for him again, the vast majority of Clinton '16 voters went Biden and high Republican turnout among previously non-voting Hispanics was counteracted by high Democratic turnout among previously non-voting (and, to a lesser extent, ex-Republican) suburbanites. I doubt whatever motivates turnout in 2022 (let alone 2024) is going to be anything that can be predicted right now.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Part 2

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2016-2020 racial group comparison:

Latino- 71% HRC to 63% Biden, 1.2% bigger part of electorate, 50% turnout
Asian- 68% HRC to 67% Biden, 0.8% bigger part of electorate, 62% turnout
Black- 93% HRC to 90% Biden, -0.1% smaller part of electorate, 63% turnout
White- 41% HRC to 44% Biden, -2.0% smaller part of electorate, 74% turnout

This modern “red panic” is a story about uncontested propaganda in isolated media ecosystems, what is sometimes reduced to “disinformation.”
And it’s a story about the weaponization of the American Dream— the true opposite of socialism in the right-wing narrative.
 
Who is most likely to express concern over socialism, after controls for partisanship, ideology and demographics?
1. Those who get news from WhatsApp or right-wing outlets
2. Those who distrust the media
3. Those who believe in social mobility through hard work

If the protests following the murder of George Floyd and ensuing calls to “Defund the Police” moved Latino voters toward Trump, as conventional wisdom now holds, you’d expect to see a change in the trajectory of vote choice around the time of those protests.
 
But week-to-week data from the time (courtesy of the Nationscape survey) shows no major shift toward Trump during the extended protest period. Some Latinos had started moving toward Trump before Floyd’s murder.

It doesn’t mean that race, or even public safety, didn’t play a role in shaping Latino vote preferences. Racial resentment does show some effect, and “crime and safety” or “maintaining order” make appearances. Other data, and qualitative work, suggest some Latinos feel ignored by Democrats relative to non-Hispanic Black voters. But also some data suggest the salience of police brutality and racial inequality may have galvanized Biden’s new Latino voters.

In sum, a focus on “Defund the Police” as a primary driver of Trump’s Latino vote ignores the mountain of evidence behind other, more obvious factors.

Among Latinos, Democrats continue to have some natural advantages— specifically on caring more about “people like you” and being “better for Hispanics”— but are on even ground with Republicans in areas that once defined their brand: valuing hard work, standing for the American Dream, and helping American workers.

For Democrats, the question is whether either the GOP’s broad economic/cultural attack or the sense among some Hispanics that their votes have been taken for granted by Democrats could create a new social norm that prevents less-partisan Latinos from defaulting to Democrats, as they usually have.

The Republicans have a bigger albatross: for all their efforts to rebrand as a working class party, Hispanics largely identify the GOP as the uncaring party of big corporations and the rich.

[thebeloitmoderate]

For Inner city Hispanics especially in L.A and NYC it also made once formerly majority African American neighborhoods swing hard R but for L.A the Hispanics in those neighborhoods are Mexicans and some Central American, while in NYC it is mostly Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.
The only state in which Hispanics swung left is Georgia.
Spanish-Americans from Spain were the only Hispanic group to swing left in 2020.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/LarryLSandigo/status/1470784942141591555?s=20

[Gracile]

For Inner city Hispanics especially in L.A and NYC it also made once formerly majority African American neighborhoods swing hard R but for L.A the Hispanics in those neighborhoods are Mexicans and some Central American, while in NYC it is mostly Puerto Ricans and Dominicans.
The only state in which Hispanics swung left is Georgia.
Spanish-Americans from Spain were the only Hispanic group to swing left in 2020.

I am pretty sure this is not true judging by the swings in the majority Hispanic precincts in places like Gwinnett County.

[StateBoiler]

Spanish-Americans from Spain were the only Hispanic group to swing left in 2020.

That is such a small group in this country compared to Latin Americans at large how do you even poll that?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The most interesting part to me is this.

Equis found that there was not a drop-off in worry about socialism as Latinos became more assimilated. Instead, it was the opposite — with fourth generation Latinos and beyond expressing more concern about socialism than earlier generations

How many 4th+ generation Latinos are there? Can’t imagine there are very many outside of Florida (some Cubans and Puerto Ricans), the NYC area (some Puerto Ricans), SoCal (small percentage of Mexicans), and of course the Rio Grande basin (Hispanos + Tejanos) who are probably the only group that is electorally significant. The vast majority of Latino voters are from post-1965 immigrant waves.

Spanish-Americans from Spain were the only Hispanic group to swing left in 2020.

That is such a small group in this country compared to Latin Americans at large how do you even poll that?

Maybe he’s thinking of Basque Americans? I think they mostly immigrated from present-day Spain and not France, and I’d bet they swung against Trump like other safe Republican white American subgroups in the Western US.

[MARGINS6729]

Very interesting. A few questions this throws up:

— What drove increased turnout/motivation, and why was this specific to Hispanics and Asians (white and black turnout was comparatively stagnant according to this)? Why were new Hispanic voters mostly pro-Trump?
— If, as the report suggests, Covid was a major factor in this, why did Hispanics respond more negatively to lockdowns than other groups? More broadly, why was Covid a positive for Trump among Hispanics when it hurt him among the rest of the electorate?
— How was a pro-Trump Hispanic media bubble able to be engineered between 2019 and 2020? Cuban talk radio, for instance, was a major factor in driving conservative opinion among the community in the 80s, 90s and early 00s, but seemed to have all but disappeared as a key political influence in Miami. How was a conservative Hispanic media bubble resurrected in South FL and elsewhere in the past 2 years?
— Should the GOP stop talking about immigration? Will the number of Hispanic voters gained outweigh the number of WWC voters potentially lost?
— Slightly off-topic but: massive swings in Miami-Dade extended beyond just Cubans and Latin Americans, into black and white communities. Why? And was the Hispanic swing in Miami more of a Miami thing than a Hispanic thing?
— While basic maths might suggest that Trump gains in the RGV were more due to him turning out previous nonvoters than persuasion, is it actually realistic that 90%+ of new voters there went for Trump? Was vote-switching in fact a key part of the equation in the RGV, and if so, why?

The FL GOP bought out several Spanish media outlets over the last ten years or so from what I gather. They also coordinated listener calls to the radio stations with the highest ratings, Radio Mambi, and Actualidad, to shape the media discussion with right wing talking points. They also invested in social media to reach the post 93 wave of Cubans that had been mostly split between the parties, getting people like Alex Otaola to sway their opinions. Also, the right wing tilt of Miami Spanish radio had never gone away. It just wasn't as effective because younger Cubans and more recent arrivals were not as hardline about Cuba as previous generations. Also, Miami-Dade had become progressively less Cuban over the years with Colombians, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, Peruvians, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Hondurans, Guatemalans, Salvadorans, etc moving in and voting for the Democrats. Realizing this, the GOP ramped up it's comms efforts with Colombians, Venezuelans, and Nicaraguans in addition to working harder with less GOP aligned Cubans. But the real problem is the rise of Bernie Sanders and ''Democratic Socialism'' within the national image of the Democratic Party which has led credibility to the GOP's attacks and right wing radio has seized on it. The Democrats both on the state and national level have horrendous, almost nonexistent  outreach towards FL Latinos so an image of trust and clear political messaging that defines who Democrats are and who the GOP are is not there.

[Mr. Smith]

Spanish-Americans from Spain were the only Hispanic group to swing left in 2020.

That is such a small group in this country compared to Latin Americans at large how do you even poll that?

Not in New Mexico, notably one state that made yuge swing to the left.