Caspian Report: "China could invade Taiwan by 2027"
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  Caspian Report: "China could invade Taiwan by 2027"
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Poll
Question: Opinion? Likelihood? Choose up to two options.
#1
I strongly approve of the idea that the People's Republic of China should invade Taiwan.
 
#2
I moderately approve of the idea that the People's Republic of China should invade Taiwan.
 
#3
I am neutral on the idea that the People's Republic of China should invade Taiwan.
 
#4
I moderately disapprove of the idea that the People's Republic of China should invade Taiwan.
 
#5
I strongly disapprove of the idea that the People's Republic of China should invade Taiwan.
 
#6
This is extremely likely to happen within the next few years.
 
#7
This is likely to happen within the next few years.
 
#8
This is unlikely to happen within the next few years.
 
#9
This is extremely unlikely to happen within the next few years.
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 90

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Author Topic: Caspian Report: "China could invade Taiwan by 2027"  (Read 2963 times)
Beet
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« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2021, 11:17:00 PM »

And as far as comparisons with Crimea are concerned - Russia's big ace in their hand there is that the majority of local people *would* (even taking into account all the obvious caveats) rather belong to them than the Ukraine. This is fairly obviously not the case in Taiwan.

That is actually not true if you look at opinion polls taken before the annexation. Only a neglible percentage of people felt Crimea should have been Russian.
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Paul Weller
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« Reply #26 on: April 15, 2021, 12:27:12 AM »

That is the only geopolitical channel on Youtube worth subscribing to. 

Clearly you're not familiar with the MoFreedomFoundation.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #27 on: April 15, 2021, 05:44:47 AM »

And as far as comparisons with Crimea are concerned - Russia's big ace in their hand there is that the majority of local people *would* (even taking into account all the obvious caveats) rather belong to them than the Ukraine. This is fairly obviously not the case in Taiwan.

That is actually not true if you look at opinion polls taken before the annexation. Only a neglible percentage of people felt Crimea should have been Russian.


Well, some might think the 1991 Ukrainian independence referendum - which, even in the euphoric end of the Soviet Union atmosphere then, showed support *far* lower in Crimea than the rest of the country - would be a more reliable indicator of underlying sentiment than very possibly slanted polls.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #28 on: April 15, 2021, 08:11:09 AM »

If the mainland decides to get serious about integrating Taiwan, it's likely going to start with economic force rather than military force. Military force would most likely not be used for a military invasion, but for an economic blockade.

An economic blockade using military force would be an act of war by itself, and no one has any illusions otherwise.

Cutting off economic links across the strait (if that's what you mean) would immediately throw tens of millions of Chinese workers onto the street, and that's something that absolutely terrifies the CCP leadership.

Using its economic influence to buy political influence to lead to integration has been tried since 2010. The problem is, this has backfired: the Taiwan-is-not-China sentiment has only increased since then.

Why do you assume that if the CCP decides to play economic hardball with Taiwan they won't simply confiscate all Taiwanese businesses?  Indeed, I'd expect the first phase would be for a bill stating that in X years, any business assets held by those holding allegiance to a breakaway government would be confiscated.  That would give Taiwanese businesses elites an incentive to pressure the Taiwanese government to cave and/or sell their mainland business interests in that time period.
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Beet
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« Reply #29 on: April 15, 2021, 08:29:01 AM »

And as far as comparisons with Crimea are concerned - Russia's big ace in their hand there is that the majority of local people *would* (even taking into account all the obvious caveats) rather belong to them than the Ukraine. This is fairly obviously not the case in Taiwan.

That is actually not true if you look at opinion polls taken before the annexation. Only a neglible percentage of people felt Crimea should have been Russian.


Well, some might think the 1991 Ukrainian independence referendum - which, even in the euphoric end of the Soviet Union atmosphere then, showed support *far* lower in Crimea than the rest of the country - would be a more reliable indicator of underlying sentiment than very possibly slanted polls.

Yes but that was in 1991. As we know, opinion does change over time. And the rest of the country doesn't exactly want to join Russia anyways.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #30 on: April 15, 2021, 08:38:57 AM »

And as far as comparisons with Crimea are concerned - Russia's big ace in their hand there is that the majority of local people *would* (even taking into account all the obvious caveats) rather belong to them than the Ukraine. This is fairly obviously not the case in Taiwan.

That is actually not true if you look at opinion polls taken before the annexation. Only a neglible percentage of people felt Crimea should have been Russian.


Well, some might think the 1991 Ukrainian independence referendum - which, even in the euphoric end of the Soviet Union atmosphere then, showed support *far* lower in Crimea than the rest of the country - would be a more reliable indicator of underlying sentiment than very possibly slanted polls.

Yes but that was in 1991. As we know, opinion does change over time. And the rest of the country doesn't exactly want to join Russia anyways.

Nobody serious is disputing the latter point.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #31 on: April 15, 2021, 10:57:39 AM »

Why do you assume that if the CCP decides to play economic hardball with Taiwan they won't simply confiscate all Taiwanese businesses?  Indeed, I'd expect the first phase would be for a bill stating that in X years, any business assets held by those holding allegiance to a breakaway government would be confiscated.  That would give Taiwanese businesses elites an incentive to pressure the Taiwanese government to cave and/or sell their mainland business interests in that time period.
Because that would backfire terribly. That is tantamount to an expropriation worthy of Hugo Chavez or Vladimir Putin, and foreign investment from any country will immediately cease. The largest Taiwanese companies have been quietly diversifying their supply chains to other countries, and had been shrewd enough not to build their most advanced factories in a potentially hostile territory. They would simply call the bluff, but China's attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment would be permanently damaged.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #32 on: April 16, 2021, 02:57:39 PM »

Why do you assume that if the CCP decides to play economic hardball with Taiwan they won't simply confiscate all Taiwanese businesses?  Indeed, I'd expect the first phase would be for a bill stating that in X years, any business assets held by those holding allegiance to a breakaway government would be confiscated.  That would give Taiwanese businesses elites an incentive to pressure the Taiwanese government to cave and/or sell their mainland business interests in that time period.
Because that would backfire terribly. That is tantamount to an expropriation worthy of Hugo Chavez or Vladimir Putin, and foreign investment from any country will immediately cease. The largest Taiwanese companies have been quietly diversifying their supply chains to other countries, and had been shrewd enough not to build their most advanced factories in a potentially hostile territory. They would simply call the bluff, but China's attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment would be permanently damaged.

If they specifically limited it to just Taiwan and then only if Taiwan didn't submit to CCP authority, the blowback would certainly be less than if they were to militarily invade.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #33 on: April 16, 2021, 04:25:52 PM »

If they specifically limited it to just Taiwan and then only if Taiwan didn't submit to CCP authority, the blowback would certainly be less than if they were to militarily invade.
No, it will not, because the CCP has proven to break its commitments once it finds a politically good opportunity. There's nothing to stop them from threatening South Korean businesses unless Seoul kicks out US troops, or Japanese businesses unless Japan hands over the disputed islands, or US businesses until the US recognizes the entire South China Sea, or so forth. Taiwanese businesses will simply sell out, and many other foreign investors will follow more discreetly.

Plus, events since at least 2010 prove that the more the CCP attempts to seduce Taiwan's business elite to expand its political influence on Taiwan, the further that Taiwan drifts apart politically. This includes, every time Beijing finds flimsy excuses to ban Taiwanese products. Now with the spotlight on semiconductors, Taiwan's business elite have a further factor to consider: kowtowing to Beijing would mean Taiwan would lose access to the suppliers of high-tech components that are overwhelmingly concentrated in western-aligned powers. It would destroy their own bottom line. They would much rather lose access to mainland China than lose access to the rest of the world.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #34 on: April 16, 2021, 07:36:26 PM »

If they specifically limited it to just Taiwan and then only if Taiwan didn't submit to CCP authority, the blowback would certainly be less than if they were to militarily invade.
No, it will not, because the CCP has proven to break its commitments once it finds a politically good opportunity. There's nothing to stop them from threatening South Korean businesses unless Seoul kicks out US troops, or Japanese businesses unless Japan hands over the disputed islands, or US businesses until the US recognizes the entire South China Sea, or so forth. Taiwanese businesses will simply sell out, and many other foreign investors will follow more discreetly.

Plus, events since at least 2010 prove that the more the CCP attempts to seduce Taiwan's business elite to expand its political influence on Taiwan, the further that Taiwan drifts apart politically. This includes, every time Beijing finds flimsy excuses to ban Taiwanese products. Now with the spotlight on semiconductors, Taiwan's business elite have a further factor to consider: kowtowing to Beijing would mean Taiwan would lose access to the suppliers of high-tech components that are overwhelmingly concentrated in western-aligned powers. It would destroy their own bottom line. They would much rather lose access to mainland China than lose access to the rest of the world.

I didn't say there would be no blowback, just that it wouldn't be worse than the blowback from a military invasion and likely wouldn't be as severe.  From a realpolitik viewpoint, there's no reason for the mainland to do anything against Taiwan, but the CCP has shown that it doesn't always base its actions on realpolitik. If it had, it never would've gone as far as it did in Hong Kong. Still, they have shown a pattern of starting small and then escalating rather than back down or even just stand pat when their small provocation doesn't yield the desired result.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #35 on: April 16, 2021, 09:39:24 PM »

I didn't say there would be no blowback, just that it wouldn't be worse than the blowback from a military invasion and likely wouldn't be as severe.  From a realpolitik viewpoint, there's no reason for the mainland to do anything against Taiwan, but the CCP has shown that it doesn't always base its actions on realpolitik. If it had, it never would've gone as far as it did in Hong Kong. Still, they have shown a pattern of starting small and then escalating rather than back down or even just stand pat when their small provocation doesn't yield the desired result.

Such a step - threatening to nationalize foreign investment over a political demand - would be seen as the end of China's post-Mao economic reform period, and the start of something very, very bleak.

Hong Kong could be explained as Winnie protecting his own job security: escalating political dissent was immediately threatening Winnie's credibility as CCP leader, and the economic consequences of abolishing its autonomy would take many years to accumulate. It was an action with a short-term benefit (he exerts his credibility as leader, and no immediate backlash), and an unclear long-term cost (foreign investors may gradually become more hesitant in investing in Hong Kong). Threatening Taiwan, even through economic means, would come with no clear short-term benefit (high risk of failure), but definite long-term costs (tens of millions of lost jobs).

The CCP has, for its part, proven sensitive in protecting immediate domestic employment, and when it can claim a victory in domestic propaganda. Do you remember ages ago, in January 2020, when Trump signed his Phase 1 trade deal with Beijing? It imposed a whole slew of demands on China, while the US was free to raise tariffs effectively as it pleased. Effectively, Beijing yielded to Trump's gaslighting, because it was afraid of the alternative, which was an immediate loss of millions of jobs. Then it used its propaganda machine to present this defeat as a victory. Beijing was so, so desperate for that bad trade deal that it ignored news of a festering disease in Wuhan. This means that they are always making political calculations, and are willing to retreat when the conditions are against confrontation.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #36 on: April 16, 2021, 10:13:40 PM »

I didn't say there would be no blowback, just that it wouldn't be worse than the blowback from a military invasion and likely wouldn't be as severe.  From a realpolitik viewpoint, there's no reason for the mainland to do anything against Taiwan, but the CCP has shown that it doesn't always base its actions on realpolitik. If it had, it never would've gone as far as it did in Hong Kong. Still, they have shown a pattern of starting small and then escalating rather than back down or even just stand pat when their small provocation doesn't yield the desired result.

Such a step - threatening to nationalize foreign investment over a political demand - would be seen as the end of China's post-Mao economic reform period, and the start of something very, very bleak.

But Taiwanese investment isn't foreign investment from the CCP's perspective. That those outside China might not share that viewpoint will be unlikely to affect their calculus. Only the extent to which those inside China see Taiwan as foreign rather than domestic is likely to affect their calculus.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #37 on: April 17, 2021, 01:59:35 AM »

But Taiwanese investment isn't foreign investment from the CCP's perspective. That those outside China might not share that viewpoint will be unlikely to affect their calculus. Only the extent to which those inside China see Taiwan as foreign rather than domestic is likely to affect their calculus.
It is, when it suits them. Many policies refer to "foreign, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan" in order to treat these three territories as not-China when necessary, such as allowing their people to freely move money in and out of mainland China. The flip side is that people from these three territories are banned from sensitive things, such as travel to Tibet without a guide, as if they were foreigners.

In any case, a threat to nationalize Taiwanese investments will ring five-alarm bells in corporate boardrooms in Tokyo, Seoul, New York, and other financial hubs. Promises from the CCP that "it's just Taiwan, no one else will need to worry" will be as credible as promises to sell bridges.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #38 on: April 17, 2021, 02:19:28 AM »

But Taiwanese investment isn't foreign investment from the CCP's perspective. That those outside China might not share that viewpoint will be unlikely to affect their calculus. Only the extent to which those inside China see Taiwan as foreign rather than domestic is likely to affect their calculus.
It is, when it suits them. Many policies refer to "foreign, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan" in order to treat these three territories as not-China when necessary, such as allowing their people to freely move money in and out of mainland China. The flip side is that people from these three territories are banned from sensitive things, such as travel to Tibet without a guide, as if they were foreigners.

In any case, a threat to nationalize Taiwanese investments will ring five-alarm bells in corporate boardrooms in Tokyo, Seoul, New York, and other financial hubs. Promises from the CCP that "it's just Taiwan, no one else will need to worry" will be as credible as promises to sell bridges.

But will the CCP recognize that? Or even if they do, will it care? As Hong Kong has shown, the CCP can't be presumed to do what we would consider to be the sensible course of action.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #39 on: April 17, 2021, 09:40:43 AM »

But as already said, Taiwan would be of a somewhat different magnitude.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #40 on: April 17, 2021, 09:47:36 AM »

But as already said, Taiwan would be of a somewhat different magnitude.

So 7.5 million is a statistic, but 23.5 million is a tragedy?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #41 on: April 17, 2021, 09:49:02 AM »

Taiwan is not attached to the Chinese mainland, and considered de facto independent by many.

I would say the differences are pretty obvious.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #42 on: April 17, 2021, 09:53:58 AM »

Taiwan is not attached to the Chinese mainland, and considered de facto independent by many.

I would say the differences are pretty obvious.

But will the CCP say that?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #43 on: April 17, 2021, 12:50:07 PM »

But will the CCP recognize that? Or even if they do, will it care? As Hong Kong has shown, the CCP can't be presumed to do what we would consider to be the sensible course of action.
As I pointed out earlier, they do very much care when the costs of their actions are clear and immediate. Stripping Hong Kong of its autonomy didn't result in unbearable pushback. Threatening Taiwan means playing Russian Roulette with tens of millions of Chinese jobs. Plus, the loss of the supply of Taiwanese-made semiconductors would immediately throw China's entire high-tech manufacturing industry into disarray (the global economy will also be plunged into chaos, but that's another story). Simply put, China's economy - and by extension, the CCP's regime stability - is dependent on Taiwan being western-aligned, and will be the case for decades yet.

Of course, I don't rule out the CCP cosplaying the Argentinian junta in 1982, but it's highly likely the first shot would be fired against the CCP leadership than against Taiwan. Chinese Emperors have always, always, feared their own troops more than any supposed foreign enemy.



Taiwan is not attached to the Chinese mainland, and considered de facto independent by many.

I would say the differences are pretty obvious.

But will the CCP say that?
The CCP does know where it does and does not have boots on the ground.
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« Reply #44 on: April 18, 2021, 09:35:13 AM »

I don't think it's particularly likely that China will literally invade: there's a reason straught out wars of annexation aren't huge these days, even considering the odd situation of Taiwan. I can, however, see China blundering into a limited war with Taiwan etc over brinkmanship and crossing red lines.
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