🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)

[MRCVzla]

I recommend this very useful Twitter thread about basic information about the parties running on tomorrow elections:
https://twitter.com/politics_bg/status/1376138761843716102

Maybe relevant how the "new" parties (ITN, ISMV) will perform and if one or both nationalist right-wing parties (VMRO and/or Volya-NFSB ticket) will surpass the 4% threshold, expect low turnout due to political apathy rather than corona as they reports.

[MRCVzla]

For the record, the SDS component of GERB-SDS is 1/63 (only the party leader, the second in command lost his seat in July). Only DB and ISNI are actual coalitions as such.

Actually, SDS got 3/63 seats (in April were 4/75), along with party leader Rumen Hristov in Sofia 23, a party member from Veliko Tarnovo got reelected, the pary lost 2 seats respect to April but they gained one member in the Sofia 25 constituency. Also in both elections, a member related to the Gergyovden Movement got elected in GERB lists (Lyuben Dilov in Burgas).

[MRCVzla]

Petkov lost the no-confidence motion, 123-116 and 1 absent (GERB-DPS-VAZ-ITN for, PP-BSP-DB-ITN dissidents against, also one DPS MP voted against mistakenly). By Bulgarian constitution, President Radev is forced to give Petkov another mandate, but at this point, a 4th legislative electoral round could be very likely than ever (and continue their inesperate rivalry with Israel about unstable governments and endless snap elections)... Unless the "new majority" want to form a government with the current parliament, lead by Borisov/some other GERB hack or even another technocrat, who knows.

If a new election is hold, ITN may be hurt badly or even be out of parliament, Vazrazhdane will go up by sure and Yanev' party could debut with a decent result. Enough to a GERB comeback? or PP/DB bloc being rewarded by their attempts to reform the country? (BSP is a box of surpises, due to pre-election polls always overstimate their results).

Stay tuned.

[MRCVzla]

Radev will dissolve parliament tomorrow. 4th round legislative election on October 2nd (plus in the meantime, new caretaker govt.). BSP returned the 3rd mandate last Thursday (July 28) because their program about elect a new anti-corruption commision head backfired (opposition voted against).
https://twitter.com/politics_bg/status/1554055380937936897

[MRCVzla]

Parallel counts at 100%:
Alpha Research (Dnevnik)
GERB-SDS 25.7% (71)
PP-DB 25.1% (69)
Vazrazhdane 13.9% (38)
DPS 13.6% (37)
BSPzB 9.0% (25)
ITN 3.9%
BV 3.0%
Levitsata! 2.3%

Gallup International (BNT1)
GERB-SDS 26.2% (68-71)
PP-DB 24.6% (64-67)
Vazrazhdane 14.5% (38-40)
DPS 13.4% (35-37)
BSPzB 9.2% (24-25)
ITN 4.0% (0-11)
BV 3.0%
Levitsata! 2.4%

Market Links (bTV)
GERB-SDS 25.6% (70)
PP-DB 25.3% (70)
DPS 14.5% (40)
Vazrazhdane 13.9% (38)
BSPzB 8.1% (22)
ITN 3.8%
BV 3.6%
Levitsata! 2.2%

Trend (NOVA)
GERB-SDS 26.2% (69)
PP-DB 25.0% (66)
Vazrazhdane 13.7% (36)
DPS 13.0% (34)
BSPzB 9.1% (24)
ITN 4.3% (11)
BV 3.0%
Levitsata! 2.3%

Preliminary results are already available (updated every hour) here: https://results.cik.bg/ns2023/rezultati/index.html
At the moment of this writing, 35% of the precincts are counted. PP-DB has a 1pp lead over GERB-SDS, Slavi' ITN is back for now.

A long night/day still comes but everything is still blocked. In every majority calc, GERB has to be involved, round 6 (in June/July or in October along the locals) is still very likely, and yes, it's kind of Israel.

In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is the problem along the kahanists (in the eyes of Yesh Atid/Benny Gantz/Labour/Meretz)
In Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov is the problem along the DPS and the nationalists (in the eyes of PP/DB/Slavi/Maya Manolova)

And both follow similar patterns (in both cases, the opposition formed government briefly until some of them left and the coalition collapsed, but in Bulgaria the part when Boyko returns like Bibi as not reached yet), ofc there is no Palestine-like situation inside Bulgaria, but there are similarities between constant electoral repetitions.

[MRCVzla]

Preliminary final results at 100% of the protocols counted:
GERB-SDS 26.51% (69) (+2)
PP-DB 24.54% (64) (-9)
Vazrazhdane 14.15% (37) (+10)
DPS 13.72% (36) (=)
BSPzB 8.94% (23) (-2)
ITN 4.11% (11) (+11)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BV 3.08% (-12)
Levitsata! 2.24%

Turnout at 20:00 was 40.6% (up 1.2% respect to last October)

Potential but unlikely coalitions:
GERB+PP/DB+BSP: 156
GERB+VAZ+DPS: 142
GERB+PP/DB: 133
GERB+DPS+BSP: 128
PP/DB+DPS+BSP: 123

[MRCVzla]

Yesterday, the Central Election Commission made public the list of the 240 elected MPs, Boyko Borisov is finally taking their seat this time to lead any potential coalition/government talks (PP/DB -mostly the earlier- rejects vehemently being part of a coalition with GERB), meanwhile Slavi Trifonov doesn't take his mandate and ceeded to other ITN hacks. The ratio of the PP/DB coalition ended up as 38:26, many DB candidates got benefit of the preferential voting 7% threshold and rearranged the list orders. President Radev has one month to convene the new parliament.

Also 1/5 of the protocolls/acts were wrongly transmitted at the preliminary results and corrected before the final ones were published (without any substantial change in the seat allocation), some PP-DB candidates/MPs reclaimed this as most of the wrong protocolls affected the PP-DB joint lists in GERB friendly precincts, and more than 40k votes (mostly in paper ballots) were invalid in contrast to less of 10k in last October' round 4 were the voting was only at machine ballots.

[MRCVzla]

Summary of exit polls in other oblasts capitals (mostly if not all, from Gallup) of the 1st round of the local elections, sans Sofia who was already published.
VARNA
Ivan Portnih (GERB) 27.1%
Blagomir Kotsev (PP-DB) 26.7%
Kosta Stoyanov (Vazrazhdane) 18.3%
Hristo Dimitrov (Alternative of the Citizens) 8.5%
Pavel Ralichkov (BSP) 6.9%

PLOVDIV
Kostadin Dimitrov (GERB) 32.1%
Ivaylo Staribratov (PP-DB) 22.4%
Slavcho Atanasov ("United for Plovdiv"/VMRO) 15.6%
Angel Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 7.5%
Kostadin Palazov (BSP) 6.0%

BLAGOEVGRAD
Ilko Stoyanov (Independent, right) 27.1%
Metodi Baykushev (PP-DB) 24.6%
Nikolay Shushkov (Independent left) 15.6%
Atanas Kambitov (Independent) 11.3%
Rumen Tomov ("Citizens for the Municipality") 4.9%

RUSE
Pencho Milkov (BSP i koalitsiya) 35.0%
Ivan Ivanov (GERB) 17.5%
Rena Stefanova (PP-DB) 11.7%
Iskren Veselinov ("Bulgaria of the Regions"/VMRO) 10.0%

STARA ZAGORA
Zhivko Todorov (GERB) 51.2%
Iskra Mihaylova (Vazrazhdane) 12.6%
Maria Dineva (ZNS) 11.5%
Dimitar Chorbadzhiev (PP-DB) 9.2%

KARDZHALI
Erol Myumyun (DPS) 55.1%
Nikola Chanev (GERB) 17.9%
Konstantina Karaboyukova (BSP) 8.9%
Daniela Petrova (Vazrazhdane) 8.5%
Radoslav Milev (PP-DB) 5.1%

VELIKO TARNOVO
Daniel Panov (GERB) 42.0%
Yordan Terziyski (PP-DB) 22.2%
Stilyan Naydenov (Vazrazhdane) 13.2%
Irena Stasinopoulou (BSP) 10.3%

HASKOVO
Stanislav Dechev (GERB) 42.1%
Nikolay Stavrev (Independent, supported by PP-DB and BSP) 22.0%
Georgi Ivanov ("Bulgarian Voice") 20.8%
Georgi Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 8.5%

PLEVEN
Valentin Hristov (GERB) 20.7%
Georg Spartanski (Independent) 19.7%
Chavdar Popov (Independent) 18.1%
Natalia Tsaneva (PP-DB) 8.0%
Eva Marinova (BSP) 5.3%
Danail Radentsov (Vazrazhdane) 5.0%

BURGAS
Dimitar Nikolov (GERB) 55.9%
Todor Angelov (Vazrazhdane) 8.7%
Konstantin Bachiyski (SEK) 7.9%
Stanimir Baev (BSP) 6.9%
Dimitar Naydenov (Independent) 6.8%

VRATSA
Kalin Kamenov (GERB) 68.5%
Ivan Ivanov (BSP) 9.9%
Kiril Kungalov (PP-DB) 6.0%

[MRCVzla]

Detailed results so far of the mayoral 1st round from all the Oblast capitals with more than 150k inhabitants (per oblast)
SOFIA (99.18% counted)
Vasil Terziev (PP-DB/SS) 31.82%
Vanya Grigorova (BSPzB/Levitsata) 21.58%
--------------------------------------------------
Anton Hekimyan (GERB/SDS) 17.84%
Deyan Nikolov (Vazrazhdane) 7.74%
Vili Lilikov (KOD) 5.70%
Ivaylo Valchev (ITN) 3.17%
Radostin Vasilev (Independent, former PP/ITN) 2.52%
Violeta Komitova (BV) 1.16%
Carlos Contreras (VMRO) 0.93%
None of the Above 3.76%

PLOVDIV
Kostadin Dimitrov (GERB) 33.72%
Ivaylo Staribratov (PP-DB) 17.90%
--------------------------------------------------------------
Slavcho Atanasov (United for Plovdiv/VMRO/Volya/Ataka) 13.40%
Angel Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 6.72%
Stanislav Balabanov (ITN) 5.04%
Savina Petkova (BPL, BSP splinter) 4.89%
Kostadin Palazov (BSPzB) 4.73%
Krasimir Asenov (DPS) 3.72%
None of the Above 2.96%

VARNA
Ivan Portnikh (GERB) 26.57%
Blagomir Kotsev (PP-DB) 21.56%
--------------------------------------------
Kosta Stoyanov (Vazrazhdane) 18.71%
Hristo Dimitrov (AG) 10.23%
Pavel Ralichkov (BSPzB) 6.04%
Ivaylo Kostadinov (ITN) 5.45%
Petar Yotov Nikolov (BV) 2.54%
Maria Todorova (Levitsata) 2.21%

None of the Above 5.41%

BURGAS
Dimitar Nikolov (GERB) 60.49% (elected)
Kostantin Bachiyski (SEK) 9.09%
Dimitar Naydenov (Independent, DB member) 7.86%
Todor Angelov (Vazrazhdane) 6.04%
Stanimir Baev (BSPzB) 4.32%
Todor Ivanov (ITN) 2.38%
Zhivko Tabakov (DBG/Levitsata) 2.26%
Stoyan Grozev (BV) 2.19%

None of the Above 2.86%

STARA ZAGORA
Zhivko Todorov (GERB) 55.64% (elected)
Iskra Mihaylova (Vazrazhdane) 13.09%
Maria Dineva (ZNS, agrarian) 11.60%
Ivan Varlyakov (BSPzB) 6.72%
Dimitar Chorbadzhiev (PP-DB) 6.21%
Tihomir Tenev (ITN) 3.07%
None of the Above 3.66%

BLAGOEVGRAD
Ilko Stoyanov (Independent, former ITN) 27.07%
Metodi Baykushev (PP-DB) 21.75%
--------------------------------------------------------
Nikolay Shushkov (Independent) 15.05%
Atanas Kambitov (Independent) 12.53%
Tsveta Rangelova (Vazrazhdane) 4.97%
Stanislav Bogdanski (ITN) 4.02%
Rumen Tomov (Citizens for the Municipality) 3.93%
None of the Above 5.18%

PAZARDZHIK
Todor Popov (New Time) 39.31%
Petar Kulenski (PP-DB) 16.17%
---------------------------------------------------------------
Blago Solov (Together for a Strong Community) 11.41%
Trendafil Velichkov (Great Movement Our City) 6.20%
Tsoko Tsokov (BSPzB) 5.20%
Chavdar Chavdarov (ZNS/DBG) 4.43%
Desislava Georgieva (Vazrazhdane) 3.55%
Ivan Papazov (ZS-AS, agrarian) 3.16%
Angel Vasilev (PD, Direct Democracy) 3.10%
None of the Above 3.10%

PLEVEN
Valentin Hristov (GERB) 19.44%
Georg Spartanski (Independent) 18.38%
----------------------------------------------
Chavdar Popov (Independent) 16.66%
Chavdar Hristanov (SEK) 6.36%
Aleksandar Nikolov (AG) 6.29%
Natalia Tsenova (PP-DB) 5.76%
Eva Marinova-Naydenova (BSPzB) 5.40%
Danail Radentsov (Vazrazhdane) 5.36%
Vladislav Nikolov (Together for a Strong Community) 4.97%
Dimcho Deshev (ITN) 2.97%
None of the Above 3.43%

HASKOVO
Stanislav Dechev (GERB) 47.72%
Nikolay Stavrev (Independent) 20.08%
---------------------------------------------
Georgi Ivanov (Bulgarian Voice) 19.29%
Georgi Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 6.81%
Ivan Petkov Ivanov (ITN) 2.43%
None of the Above 3.68%

VELIKO TARNOVO
Daniel Panov (GERB) 42.37%
Yordan Terziyski (PP-DB) 20.97%
----------------------------------------------
Stilyan Naydenov (Vazrazhdane) 12.16%
Irena Stasinopoulou (BSPzB) 9.24%
Momchil Ivanov (ITN) 4.32%
Milen Mihov (VMRO) 3.64%
None of the Above 5.46%

RUSE
Pencho Milkov (BSPzB/Levitsata) 37.06%
Ivan Stefanov Ivanov (GERB) 15.29%
-------------------------------------------
Rena Stefanova (PP-DB) 10.79%
Iskren Veselinov (Bulgaria of the Regions/VMRO) 9.15%
Zlatan Zlatanov (Vazrazhdane) 6.58%
Borislav Bulgarinov (SSD) 4.66%
Anatoli Stanev (ITN) 3.73%
Stanimir Stanchev (SDS) 3.71%
Aydoan Celin (DPS) 2.90%
None of the Above 3.90%

SILVEN
Stefan Radev (GERB) 37.66%
Plamen Stoyanov (PD, Direct Democracy) 21.73%
--------------------------------------------------------
Mincho Afuzov (Independent) 15.08%
Kolyo Milev (BSPzB) 8.48%
Kliment Shopov (Vazrazhdane) 6.11%
Marincho Hristov (PP-DB) 5.96%
Mustafa Mustafov (DPS) 2.32%
None of the Above 2.67%

VRATSA
Kalin Kamenov (GERB) 67.01% (elected)
Krasimir Bogdanov (VMRO) 7.69%
Ivan Georgiev Ivanov (BSPzB) 7.01%
Ivaylo Papov (Vazrazhdane) 6.21%
Kiril Kungalov (PP-DB) 5.46%
None of the Above 3.16%

SHUMEN
Hristo Hristov (BSPzB) 26.74%
Georgi Kolev (GERB) 21.56%
------------------------------------------
Ventsislav Venkov (Levitsata) 9.64%
Nikolay Kolev (PP-DB) 9.37%
Sunay Isuf (DPS) 7.30%
Ivaylo Obertenov (Vazrazhdane) 7.13%
Hristomir Hristov (DBG) 5.43%
Petar Mladenov Petrov (Society for a New Bulgaria) 5.34%
None of the Above 4.04%

DOBRICH
Yordan Yordanov (DBG/ITN/NDSV/SSD/GN/VMRO) 27.21%
Krasimir Nikolov (GERB) 21.88%
------------------------------------------------------------------
Georgi Zhendov (Vazrazhdane) 14.35%
Yordanka Kostadin (PP-DB) 13.58%
Stoyan Lutskanov (BSPzB) 7.60%
Delyan Zhechev (Citizens for the Municipality) 3.79%
Nezhlya Amdi-Ganeva (DPS) 3.18%
None of the Above 3.08%

KARDZHALI
Erol Myumyun (DPS) 60.25% (elected)
Nikola Chanev (GERB) 14.51%
Daniela Petrova (Vazrazhdane) 11.00%
Radoslav Milev (PP-DB) 5.40%
Konstantina Karaboyukova (BSPzB) 4.85%
None of the Above 2.08%

Results site: https://results.cik.bg/mi2023/tur1/rezultati/2246.html

[MRCVzla]

Second round today, exit polls by Gallup:
SOFIA
Terziev (PP-DB) 50.8%
Grigorova (BSP-led) 45.2%

BLAGOEVGRAD
Baykushev (PP-DB) 49.5%
Stoyanov (Ind) 48.1%

VARNA
Kotsev (PP-DB) 49.4%
Portnikh (GERB) 45.3%

PLOVDIV
Dimitrov (GERB) 52.8%
Staribratov (PP-DB) 41.5%

PLEVEN (Trend)
Hristov (GERB) 61.8%
Spartanski (Ind) 32.5%

Alpha Research has Terziev 49.7-43.8 Grigorova in Sofia race, Trend pollster says 51.9-43.4 also in favor of Terziev, other pollster Market Links projects at other races, in Plovdiv: Dimitrov 51.5-39.1 Staribratov (at Trend 53.2-41.2) , Varna: Kotsev 48.3-43.9 Portnikh (at Trend 48.9-45.1). Blagoevgrad: Stoyanov 48.8-47.0 Baykushev being the most disputed. GERB also leads in Haskovo and Veliko Tarnovo while BSP is ahead in Ruse (60.5-33.0 against GERB candidate).