🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)

[RGM2609]

I'm aware that Romania and Bulgaria have less in common than people often assume, which might make comparisions between them iffy, but it's kind of strange to see where the countries were politically in the Ceaușescu/Zhivkov days and where they are now. Contrary to what would have been expected, Romania now seems to have a healthier democracy than Bulgaria, with an actual anti-corruption party as a major player, a draconian National Anticorruption Directorate, stable-ish party system and so on.

Do you have any idea why?

My best guess would be that in an interesting cause-and-effect relationship, the Romanian people were left with somewhat stronger pro-democratic instincts than Bulgarians exactly because of how much worse communism was for them. But still, it took 30 years for Romania to get to this point (and still PSD is the largest party and the far right is rising), post-communism was a mess to get over. I hope and think that the political situation in Bulgaria will begin to improve soon, one can not fight the course of history forever (if anyone would have told me in 2011-2012 what Romania would look like right now, I would have laughed so hard). Beagle can correct me if I am wrong in my assumption.

[RGM2609]

Who the f**k is holding an election on an Easter Sunday ?

Bulgaria is Orthodox, we don't celebrate Easter on the same day as Catholics

[RGM2609]

So I take it that ITN is just another means for a wannabe oligarch to rise to power instead of an actually reformist party? That's unfortunate, what the political scene there desperately needs, I think, is an anti-corruption party with some appeal outside of Sofia

[RGM2609]

A bit of an unrelated question, but why is your vaccination campaign so far behind the rest of the EU? Are the anti vaxxers so influent, is the government royally messing it up or a combination of the two?

[RGM2609]

Ah, just GERB shocking us all yet again with its great skills in governing and administrating a country. I was actually pretty worried that there are so few people willing to get the vaccines, thankfully that is not the case.

[RGM2609]

How likely is it for the next Parliament to fail at forming a government too and therefore, a third election in an year?

[RGM2609]

If it is July 11th then the Balkans will have a busy day: Moldova is having early elections too...
Probably the best thing about the new elections is that the BSP will likely collapse even further: about time for that Russophile party of ex-communists to go away

[RGM2609]

I have no sympathy for socialism, GMantis, however, if you say that the positions of the BSP are the closest to the majority of the population, then is it not strange that they only got 15%, and have allowed the GERB to dominate since 2009? If they are truly the party closest to the population, then either their brand is bad, they are shockingly incompetent, or both. I believe it would be in the best interest of everyone, including left-wingers, if this party which managed to fail on so many occasions, to go away and be replaced by a modern social democratic party. Not that I think this will happen anytime soon, this is merely hypothetical.

[RGM2609]

How do the Bulgarian Patriots manage to stay under the threshold even united? Their voters going to ITN?

[RGM2609]

Lol, when these parties start railing against the gays as the main campaign message, then you just know they are doomed. Thank you for your answer, fascinating as always!

[RGM2609]

Oof the anti-corruption parties came pretty close to a majority. Now why would the BSP and DSP back that combination? To stop the elections or in the hope those parties will humiliate themselves and disappear?

Off topic (a bit), but what was your experience as a poll worker like? Anything interesting that happened?

[RGM2609]

It would actually be best for the DB&ISMV to let this proceed. By the time someone pulls the plug and the government collapses, ITN would have problems with reaching double digits.

[RGM2609]

The current Danish govt is backed by a minority of 26.8%

[RGM2609]

I have two questions -

1. How likely is it for the early election to change the political scene in a meaningful way and make the formation of a political government possible? I know a fourth election is a no-no and some technocratic, national unity or minority govt would emerge if the scene stays the same but will the new election make the formation any easier?

2. Radev is probably the frontrunner for re-election, but which parties will endorse him, and will ITN or DB run someone against him? Oh, and also, will Borisov run? He seems smarter than that but Wikipedia says he is the potential GERB candidate.

[RGM2609]

Well that was unexpected. Will there even be a runoff in thebpresidential race with those results?

[RGM2609]

Any surprises in how people split their ballots or not?

[RGM2609]

Beagle, lol @ you thinking this thread would be dormant in 2022. Bulgarian politics never disappoint. Are you happy with the Petkov government and the job it has done?

[RGM2609]

What was your experience like in your precint, anything worth noting you noticed? Did DB win?

[RGM2609]

My question would be, what advantage do PP and DB see in running together? Their combined sum is lower and it's not like DB is in serious risk of falling under the threshold.

[RGM2609]

You seemed to imply that some of the "Old right" is not supportive of DB anymore, presumably because of the (non)coalition. Well, where else could those voters go? Is there some sort of movement forming in that electoral space to oppose PP-DB? (Apparently there are such parties running now in Sofia, but I am thinking on the national level)

[RGM2609]

Are you considering supporting some sort of PP-DB splinter?

[RGM2609]

Exit poll for Sofia mayoral race:

Vasil Terziev (PP-DB-SS) - 38.8%
Vanya Grigorova (BSP) - 19.1%
Anton Hekimyan (GERB-SDS) - 17.0%
Deyan Nikolov ("Revival") - 7.1%
Vili Lilkov (KOD) - 5.3%
Ivaylo Valchev (ITN) - 2.9%
Radostin Vassilev (independent) - 2.6%

So GERB's TV trumpet candidate embarrasses himself and likely gets locked out of the runoff, overtaken by the BSP which isn't in its best shape at the moment, especially not in Sofia. And PP-DB actually gets a...decent result given the circumstances?

[RGM2609]

Indeed, BSP did well (though I reckon they wouldn't have had a chance to reach the runoff if GERB had a good candidate?). I was actually wondering what makes Grigorova so popular, is it just being charismatic in contrast to the other candidates?

[RGM2609]

In the LOL department, I read online that in Varna, activists of other parties started sticking hard-to-remove stickers with the PP-DB candidate on windshields in order to annoy people into not voting for him.

[RGM2609]

I bet they are locked in Soros's basement together with hundreds of thousands of Revival votes! Stop the steal!