🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:44:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)  (Read 27158 times)
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« on: April 04, 2021, 02:35:56 PM »

Also if that exit poll is true, great news imo, with far right parties not making the threshold. Bulgaria would join the small "no far right" club of EU countries.

Sadly it seems to still have tons of oligarch led corrupt parties, but this election seems to be an improvement? I generally distrust anti corruption parties but it seems the corrupt people are getting punished, even if it is in many cases by voting a different set of oligarchs
Vmro is at 4% in them and they be back even if they don’t make it at some point
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2021, 10:42:48 AM »

Signing off for the night. This is the results page you want to follow if you want the national result faster than the official results page that was posted earlier.
I will try to get back to the questions and comments made itt tomorrow. A few late night developments:

- Borisov has - as predicted - proposed an 'expert' cabinet until December. This looks unlikely, or at least in the form he envisions
- ITN have drawn a line in the sand that they would not form a coalition under any circumstances with GERB, BSP or DPS (or VMRO if they make it in). One of the more plausible post-election scenarios was that GERB would sway them by proposing to implement all the electoral reforms that were passed in a referendum proposed by Trifonov back in 2016 (with the most major change being a switch to single member districts), but since GERB and ITN cannot reach a majority, this, I think, is off the table.
- IS! MV! leader Manolova is at the Sofia counting center trying to stop the steal, but this is really a part of her M.O. now - she also did it after the mayoral election, which I think she still refuses to concede to this day.
- a major surprise is the actual result for exiled oligarch Vasil Bozhkov's party (or rather the party he's taken over since his own 'Bulgarian Summer' was not registered in time). While at this time it appears that he'll stay below the threshold, he'll come much closer than anyone expected.
What is bno?
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2021, 09:22:21 PM »

What is the tsar doing these days and supporting this year?
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2021, 05:10:49 AM »

On the note of the Tsar Party, how is his government seen? After all, the Tsar creating a political party and actually winning an election is certainly one of the most interesting stories in all of politics.
Pretty sure he the tsars regrets not running for president and restoring the monarchy.at the very least I believe one quite that he rather be remembered being tsar and not prime minister that should give u a idea
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2021, 12:55:37 PM »

Nothing to report, really, other than my mild amusement at:

- TV stations scrambling to fill up airtime with pundits that are clearly as clueless as the rest of us about ITN's next move; even ITN's freshly minted MPs are posting on facebook that they are kept in the dark by the leadership.

I know that the newspaper that first leaked the failed PM proposal had a shortlist of 10 potential heads of an ITN government; 8 of them have already outright refused to take part in an ITN government, have a profile that is too close to that of the rejected candidate, or are DB/ISMV leaders - and ITN has refused to give positions to DB/ISMV. The remaining two are a banker/university professor, who has been ITN's chief spokesman on the economy, but who is rumored to be eyeing the presidency of the national bank, and... the current caretaker PM, the former general and President Radev's chief of staff. I'm starting to suspect that ITN's choice will end up the latter. This will be a very popular move*, but maybe lend some credence to GERB's steadily maintained theory that usurper Radev is staging a covert coup and seizing all power for himself.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



- DB and 'Old Right' affiliated economists struggling to explain that, sure, we are for lower taxes and less state intervention, but m-a-aybe it is not the right time for expansionary austerity, balancing the budget in 2022, lowering VAT and privatizations, as per ITN proposed PM's plan.

- BSP's own television channel airing some Thiery f...g Baudet conspiracy laden screed in its entirety with the talking heads citing him as some authority on covid, vaccines and the Rockefeller foundation. As a party, BSP will have 10 less MPs in the next parliament - they gave away electable seats to ABV and the other coalition partners they acquired before the campaign - and their popular vote result is as low as it's ever been, but they seem to be trying to plumb new depths. Or maybe I'm wrong, since the speech in the Dutch parliament has been viewed 40k times on the most popular Bulgarian-only video platform and I'm certain that no BSP speech in the Bulgarian parliament has even 400 views. Anyway, BSP are showing some early signs of trying to move into the newly vacated place of the nationalists.

I thought I'd post my attempt at reworking GMantis' electoral district map from April for the July election.  I have no idea how to create a new key, so I used the outdated one from the original, I think the two changes are clear:



For comparison, here is the April one, made by GMantis

how many seats will each coaltion party takes?
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2021, 11:06:16 AM »

A very good source for bulgarian politics



Minor parties get screwed in both coalition of gerb and bsp?
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2021, 10:31:50 PM »

Rooting for v!
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2021, 05:28:28 PM »

Once again, thank you for all this.

Honestly, who is still sticking with ITN?
V could take some of there voters
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2022, 08:58:57 AM »

Prime Minister Kiril Petkov is facing a no confidence vote on Wednesday, which he's expected to lose. On Thursday Parliament Speaker Nikola Minchev was ousted, who like Petkov is member of PP.  

The latest crisis was caused when Slavi Trifonov pulled ITN out of the governing coalition due to "budget disagreements" and because Petkov was evidently being too soft on the issue of allowing Northern Macedonia to begin EU accession talks. A successful vote would trigger another election and likely scuttle Bulgaria's aim of adopting the Euro in 2024.

https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-no-confidence-vote-kiril-petkov-government-collapse/





How many elections till new government
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2022, 06:37:46 PM »

Petkov lost the no-confidence motion, 123-116 and 1 absent (GERB-DPS-VAZ-ITN for, PP-BSP-DB-ITN dissidents against, also one DPS MP voted against mistakenly). By Bulgarian constitution, President Radev is forced to give Petkov another mandate, but at this point, a 4th legislative electoral round could be very likely than ever (and continue their inesperate rivalry with Israel about unstable governments and endless snap elections)... Unless the "new majority" want to form a government with the current parliament, lead by Borisov/some other GERB hack or even another technocrat, who knows.

If a new election is hold, ITN may be hurt badly or even be out of parliament, Vazrazhdane will go up by sure and Yanev' party could debut with a decent result. Enough to a GERB comeback? or PP/DB bloc being rewarded by their attempts to reform the country? (BSP is a box of surpises, due to pre-election polls always overstimate their results).

Stay tuned.

Quite correct. It would be shocking* in the extreme if the 'new majority' forms a government, though, especially one led by Borisov. To the extent that a government in this parliament is possible, it would be a PP-BSP-DB one, propped up by ITN and Vazrazhdane dissidents + strategic non-voting by ITN proper. ITN proper are well aware that their stunt has turned their already iffy survival in a new parliament into a pipedream. Some ITN noises are being made how a change of PM and a listening culture could make them reevaluate their support for PP. Still, they ain't getting their desired appointee as chair of the National Bank whatever happens, so new elections in the beginning of October are far likelier than any reshuffled configuration in this parliament.

* also: hilarious

what the differences between v and that new party
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 11 queries.