🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)

[Mike88]

Polls close in half an hour, right?

[Mike88]

Gallup exit poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1378756348914065418

[Mike88]

Looking at the current polling, stalemate and another election are the likeliest outcomes, right?

[Mike88]

With 95.22% of the vote in (what's outstanding are some rural precincts and the overseas vote in the Americas and about 1/3 of the EU vote - so ITN has a small chance of getting the lead, but it's going to be a photofinish either way)

GERB - 23.91% - 64 MP (-11)
ITN - 23.66% - 64 MPs (+13)
BSP - 13.63% - 37 MPs (-6)
DB - 12.55% - 34 MPs (+7)
DPS - 10.59% - 28 MPs (-2)
IS!MV! - 5.04% - 13 MPs (-1)

Turnout is down about 10% (remains to be seen how many voted abroad).

These estimates may differ from the final seat distributions by 1 seat (and hopefully I didn't round up 29.5284 from my spreadsheet as 28, like I did with DPS's result last time). If, as everybody here, you view the result as the fight between the two camps, it's:

Status quo (GERB, BSP, DPS) - 129
Parties of the Protest (ITN, DB, IS!MV!) - 111

We now enter the posturing season, in which everybody will claim the moral high ground publicly while furiously wheeling and dealing in the background. The expectation, however, hasn't changed - that for at least a short while there will be a minority government of the Parties of the Protest, enabled by the tactical non-voting of BSP and/or DPS (or fractions within GERB, but that's much more unlikely) and the parties will regroup after the Presidential election in October/November.

Interesting. About the Presidential elections, is Borisov expected to run? The current President Rumen Radev may be the favourite, however.

[Mike88]

Another stalemate is the likeliest outcome, isn't it? If that happens, what's next?

[Mike88]

Another exit poll is a bit more favourable to PP/DB, but still a close call:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1642575469450067968

[Mike88]

The exit polls may have had it wrong:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1642642733146730498

[Mike88]

The exit polls may have had it wrong:

This is still within the margin of error, no? (Although 26.9% to 24.6% is on the boundary of it...) Just a number of shy V voters, who were therefore underpolled + eager "smartbeautiful" PP/DB voters being slightly overpolled (or not even that).

Yes, it's still within the margin or error, but the exit polls, at least the ones available, predicted a narrow PP-DB win, when in fact it seems that GERB polled almost 2% ahead of PP-DB.

Don't know what kind of government could come out of this. The results are almost copypaste of the previous election(s). This situation is becoming Israel 2.0.