🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
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  🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
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Author Topic: 🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)  (Read 27223 times)
RGM2609
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« Reply #25 on: April 04, 2021, 11:34:38 AM »

So I take it that ITN is just another means for a wannabe oligarch to rise to power instead of an actually reformist party? That's unfortunate, what the political scene there desperately needs, I think, is an anti-corruption party with some appeal outside of Sofia
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #26 on: April 04, 2021, 11:36:55 AM »

Interactive map of Bulgaria (districts, cities) and demographics (grey bar to the left of the map):

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/bulgaria/admin/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #27 on: April 04, 2021, 11:42:36 AM »

Question:

What were the 2017 results of the 2 following cities ?

Svištov (a city of 34.000, that had 48.000 people in 2001 and declines by 2.5% each year)

Nesebǎr (a city on the Black Sea that has grown from 19.000 to 29.000 in the past 2 decades)
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Diouf
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« Reply #28 on: April 04, 2021, 11:54:01 AM »

I see Volt is a part of IS!MV!. Would have thought DB would be more logical. From what I can see, the Bulgarian division does not seem to be that big, so probably unlikely any of their candidates get in.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #29 on: April 04, 2021, 12:05:16 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2021, 12:08:22 PM by FredLindq »

Boiko Borissov’s GERB-Union of Democratic Forces electoral coalition got 25.7 per cent of the votes in Bulgaria’s April 4 2021 parliamentary elections, according to an exit poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were announced just after voting ended in Bulgaria at 8pm.

According to Alpha Research’s exit poll, Kornelia Ninova’s Bulgarian Socialist Party got 17.6 per cent.

In third place was the party formed around cable television presenter Slavi Trifonov, at 15.2 per cent.

Fourth was the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, 11 per cent, fifth Hristo Ivanov’s Democratic Bulgaria coalition, 10.4 per cent, and sixth was the Maya Manolova-Poison Trio formation, 4.2 per cent.

Alpha Research saw Krassimir Karakachanov’s ultra-nationalist VMRO as precisely at the four per cent threshold to win seats in Bulgaria’s 45th National Assembly, at four per cent.
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Beagle
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« Reply #30 on: April 04, 2021, 12:07:25 PM »

Will get to responding to people, but first the initial 'pre-final' exit polls - there's at least 5 agencies polling, I haven't seen all yet:

GERB - 24.5-26%
BSP - 16-19%
ITN - 15-18.5% (who may be ahead of BSP)
DPS - 10-11%
DB - 9.5-10.5% (who may be ahead of DPS)
IS!MV! - 4.5-5.5%
VMRO - 4-4.5% (who may be out after the votes from abroad come in)

Loads of things to comment on, this is a stream of thoughts, not any narrative:
- turnout was pretty decent, I will expand on this when answering to Tender, but it's either that covid and weather didn't scare the voters or that the pent-up anger at the two main parties was enough for people to overcome their fears
- turnout machines suffered their worse collapse since 1990
- there may be a very ugly implication in the fact that the great result for DB is achieved in the first election where they have a massive observer machine in operation (by the way, they will report the results live and will be much faster than the authorities since they will only need to report the precinct protocols, while the official results will need to be fed into the central commission's computers
- anti-corruption parties did great
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #31 on: April 04, 2021, 12:11:43 PM »

- there may be a very ugly implication in the fact that the great result for DB is achieved in the first election where they have a massive observer machine in operation (by the way, they will report the results live and will be much faster than the authorities since they will only need to report the precinct protocols, while the official results will need to be fed into the central commission's computers
How common is electoral fraud believed to be? I've always heard dark whispers but never much concrete.
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GMantis
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« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2021, 12:12:15 PM »

Will get to responding to people, but first the initial 'pre-final' exit polls - there's at least 5 agencies polling, I haven't seen all yet:

GERB - 24.5-26%
BSP - 16-19%
ITN - 15-18.5% (who may be ahead of BSP)
DPS - 10-11%
DB - 9.5-10.5% (who may be ahead of DPS)
IS!MV! - 4.5-5.5%
VMRO - 4-4.5% (who may be out after the votes from abroad come in)

Loads of things to comment on, this is a stream of thoughts, not any narrative:
- turnout was pretty decent, I will expand on this when answering to Tender, but it's either that covid and weather didn't scare the voters or that the pent-up anger at the two main parties was enough for people to overcome their fears
Keep in mind the 300k less voters registered, compared to the last time. But it's true that the effect of Covid was not as significant as expected.

Quote
- there may be a very ugly implication in the fact that the great result for DB is achieved in the first election where they have a massive observer machine in operation (by the way, they will report the results live and will be much faster than the authorities since they will only need to report the precinct protocols, while the official results will need to be fed into the central commission's computers
- anti-corruption parties did great
Of course this part also played a role. And does ITN count as anti-corruption?
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Diouf
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« Reply #33 on: April 04, 2021, 12:22:32 PM »

Does anyone have an accessible livestream? Everything on BNT seems geoblocked to me
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Mike88
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« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2021, 12:23:02 PM »

Gallup exit poll:

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FredLindq
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« Reply #35 on: April 04, 2021, 12:29:17 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2021, 12:35:22 PM by FredLindq »

Seats based on Exit polls
GERB 70 (-25)
BSP 48 (-32)
ITN 41 (+41)
DPS 30 (+4)
DB 28 (+28)
ISMV 12 (+12)
VMRO 11 (-1)
Volya-NFSB 0 (-21)
Ataka 0 (-6)

Majority 121
GERB+DB+VMRO 109
BSP+ITN+DPS 119
= ISMV = Kingmaker?!
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Beagle
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« Reply #36 on: April 04, 2021, 12:37:10 PM »

Does anyone have an accessible livestream? Everything on BNT seems geoblocked to me
This works when I use my vpn: https://www.gledaitv.live/watch-tv/64/bnt-1-online
The interface is pretty intuitive if you want to change channels


Of course this part also played a role. And does ITN count as anti-corruption?

No, of course not - but their voters did actually think they are voting against corruption. My 2 acquaintances who voted for Bozhkov did not 'believe' in his anti-corruption message too - they are simply out for Borisov's blood and I'm not sure it's only metaphorical.

Seats based on Exit polls
GERB 70 (-25)
BSP 48 (-32)
ITN 41 (+41)
DPS 30 (+4)
DB 28 (+28)
ISMV 12 (+12)
VMRO 11 (-1)
Volya-NFSB 0 (-21)
Ataka 0 (-6)

Majority 121
GERB+DB+VMRO 109
BSP+ITN+DPS 119
= ISMV = Kingmaker?!

No, simply put - no. This isn't how this works - I don't have the time to seek out the meme, but there is zero chance of the proposed coalitions.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #37 on: April 04, 2021, 01:04:13 PM »

Pretty sad to see that Social Dem parties still cannot gain ground anywhere (with a few exceptions) even in a global medical crisis - which should be their core competence ...
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #38 on: April 04, 2021, 01:35:09 PM »

I see Volt is a part of IS!MV!. Would have thought DB would be more logical. From what I can see, the Bulgarian division does not seem to be that big, so probably unlikely any of their candidates get in.

Other than in Germany and the Netherlands Volt is incredibly small elsewhere. I guess it is nice to have a Europe-wide party but its results are always going to be super country dependent.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #39 on: April 04, 2021, 01:40:29 PM »

Also if that exit poll is true, great news imo, with far right parties not making the threshold. Bulgaria would join the small "no far right" club of EU countries.

Sadly it seems to still have tons of oligarch led corrupt parties, but this election seems to be an improvement? I generally distrust anti corruption parties but it seems the corrupt people are getting punished, even if it is in many cases by voting a different set of oligarchs
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Beagle
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« Reply #40 on: April 04, 2021, 01:44:21 PM »

I recommend this very useful Twitter thread about basic information about the parties running on tomorrow elections:


Maybe relevant how the "new" parties (ITN, ISMV) will perform and if one or both nationalist right-wing parties (VMRO and/or Volya-NFSB ticket) will surpass the 4% threshold, expect low turnout due to political apathy rather than corona as they reports.
Pretty sad to see that Social Dem parties still cannot gain ground anywhere (with a few exceptions) even in a global medical crisis - which should be their core competence ...

Alright, this will go unheeded - and I've certainly been guilty of this myself - but in the international elections forum it's all too common to enter a thread for a minor country's election with a mentality that does not move too far from 'Go team Right!' or 'Go team Left!' (the latter being much more common here). In Bulgaria this is not particularly useful.

Attempts such as the above to place the parties on the left-right/liberal-conservative axis are well-intentioned, but quite simply put, virtually all parties today are deeply personalist, they stand for whatever the party leader has claimed today - even though it may be the complete opposite of what the leader said yesterday, the party manifesto or even what their European family is officially endorsing (the ill-fated Istanbul Convention being a prime example.

I may not have paid too much attention to BSP's campaigning on the medical crisis, but I don't think I'm too far off the mark when I say their campaign was "Yeah, we'll do what GERB did, but also we'll import Sputnik V vaccines from Russia", which... yeah, I don't think it's very social democratic.
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GMantis
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« Reply #41 on: April 04, 2021, 01:58:32 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2021, 02:04:10 PM by GMantis »

Also if that exit poll is true, great news imo, with far right parties not making the threshold. Bulgaria would join the small "no far right" club of EU countries.

Sadly it seems to still have tons of oligarch led corrupt parties, but this election seems to be an improvement? I generally distrust anti corruption parties but it seems the corrupt people are getting punished, even if it is in many cases by voting a different set of oligarchs
VMRO is very much a far-right party, though they tend to focus more on the Macedonian issue where they have the widest popular support.

Alright, this will go unheeded - and I've certainly been guilty of this myself - but in the international elections forum it's all too common to enter a thread for a minor country's election with a mentality that does not move too far from 'Go team Right!' or 'Go team Left!' (the latter being much more common here). In Bulgaria this is not particularly useful.

Attempts such as the above to place the parties on the left-right/liberal-conservative axis are well-intentioned, but quite simply put, virtually all parties today are deeply personalist, they stand for whatever the party leader has claimed today - even though it may be the complete opposite of what the leader said yesterday, the party manifesto or even what their European family is officially endorsing (the ill-fated Istanbul Convention being a prime example.

I may not have paid too much attention to BSP's campaigning on the medical crisis, but I don't think I'm too far off the mark when I say their campaign was "Yeah, we'll do what GERB did, but also we'll import Sputnik V vaccines from Russia", which... yeah, I don't think it's very social democratic.
I quite agree with the rest of your argument (though I would add that political positions don't play much role in voting behavior, what with BSP doing much worse than would be expected from their positions), but I don't really see how importing a vaccine from Russia is against social democracy.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #42 on: April 04, 2021, 02:01:18 PM »

Question:

What were the 2017 results of the 2 following cities ?

Svištov (a city of 34.000, that had 48.000 people in 2001 and declines by 2.5% each year)

Nesebǎr (a city on the Black Sea that has grown from 19.000 to 29.000 in the past 2 decades)

?

(Are there 2021 results already ?)
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #43 on: April 04, 2021, 02:06:28 PM »

Question:

What were the 2017 results of the 2 following cities ?

Svištov (a city of 34.000, that had 48.000 people in 2001 and declines by 2.5% each year)

Nesebǎr (a city on the Black Sea that has grown from 19.000 to 29.000 in the past 2 decades)

?

(Are there 2021 results already ?)
I'm currently in the process of calculating the 2017 results by municipality. The 2021 results won't     be available for a few days at least.   
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #44 on: April 04, 2021, 02:15:39 PM »

Also if that exit poll is true, great news imo, with far right parties not making the threshold. Bulgaria would join the small "no far right" club of EU countries.

Sadly it seems to still have tons of oligarch led corrupt parties, but this election seems to be an improvement? I generally distrust anti corruption parties but it seems the corrupt people are getting punished, even if it is in many cases by voting a different set of oligarchs
VMRO is very much a far-right party, though they tend to focus more on the Macedonian issue where they have the widest popular support.


I thought there was a 5% threshold? Granted 4.7% is well within the margin of error
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Keep Calm and ...
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« Reply #45 on: April 04, 2021, 02:27:18 PM »

It is a 4% threshold.

Results when they come in:
http://results.cik.bg/pi2021/index.html
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #46 on: April 04, 2021, 02:35:56 PM »

Also if that exit poll is true, great news imo, with far right parties not making the threshold. Bulgaria would join the small "no far right" club of EU countries.

Sadly it seems to still have tons of oligarch led corrupt parties, but this election seems to be an improvement? I generally distrust anti corruption parties but it seems the corrupt people are getting punished, even if it is in many cases by voting a different set of oligarchs
Vmro is at 4% in them and they be back even if they don’t make it at some point
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #47 on: April 04, 2021, 03:23:49 PM »

Question:

What were the 2017 results of the 2 following cities ?

Svištov (a city of 34.000, that had 48.000 people in 2001 and declines by 2.5% each year)

Nesebǎr (a city on the Black Sea that has grown from 19.000 to 29.000 in the past 2 decades)

For Svishtov:
BSP - 33.6%, GERB - 25.1%, NFSB - 10.6%, Reformer's Block - 9.1%, DPS - 7.6%, Volya - 4.1%

For Nesebar:
GERB - 33.5%, BSP - 31%, NFSB - 12.1%, Volya - 7.7%, Reformer's Block - 3.1%, DPS - 2.2%
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #48 on: April 04, 2021, 03:35:01 PM »

Also if that exit poll is true, great news imo, with far right parties not making the threshold. Bulgaria would join the small "no far right" club of EU countries.

Sadly it seems to still have tons of oligarch led corrupt parties, but this election seems to be an improvement? I generally distrust anti corruption parties but it seems the corrupt people are getting punished, even if it is in many cases by voting a different set of oligarchs
VMRO is very much a far-right party, though they tend to focus more on the Macedonian issue where they have the widest popular support.

What does focusing on the Macedonian issue mean in practice? I know that there is a sense in Bulgaria that Macedonians are actually Bulgarians, but what does ВМРО state or propose specifically?
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Beagle
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« Reply #49 on: April 04, 2021, 03:58:17 PM »

Parallel counts are not complete, but I am making a few somewhat risky projections:
- ITN have surpassed BSP as the second party, BSP will come third for the second time in modern history (2001, the coming of Simeon II, was the first). It remains to be seen whether they will manage to stay above their 2014 nadir in support (15.4%)
- VMRO are out, again showing that when a party's under 5% in exit polls, they will remain under 4% in the actual count
- DPS will remain 4th largest party
- DB will not manage to overtake DPS, but there is a likelihood that they will surpass the 2014 Reformist Bloc (the previous iteration of a united 'Old Right')'s 8.9%
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