🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)

[Beagle]

Because of the paper-ballots-only or not, the counting is proceeding at a glacial pace. Few observations from what I see and hear so far:

- the 80% incumbent retention rate is holding true nationwide, maybe even increasing a bit, which is good for GERB; however, they lost: the narrative (see below re: Sofia); seemingly, massive amounts of municipal councilors; some enamel because all the prominent figures are grinding their teeth in order not to criticize Borisov for his personal choice of Sofia nominee;

- better than expected PP-DB results, especially given what has transpired with the voting machine code, with a couple of surprise run-offs in oblast cities;

- better than expected BSP results (again, winning the narrative re: Sofia);

- Vazrazhdane are doing pretty poorly in major cities (flopping in their Varna birthplace), but pretty well in minor municipalities;


Sofia:
- the exit poll cited above was a tad optimistic for PP-DB, the results so far show about 5% less than that, but still notably higher than pre-election polls - which indicate either a significant polling error, or, more likely, a mobilizing effect from the joint attack by all other parties over the voting machine code;

- GERB are coming in significantly under their worst projection for both mayor and municipal council, it is clear that the TV nominee did not work at all (he's coming 5% behind Grigorova and 3% behind the GERB party list) and PP-DB will enter the run-off ahead in most districts;

- BSP cannibalized a lot of the Vazrazhdane vote, but also turned out a number of voters, who would have probably sat out the election under normal circumstances;

 

Indeed, BSP did well (though I reckon they wouldn't have had a chance to reach the runoff if GERB had a good candidate?). I was actually wondering what makes Grigorova so popular, is it just being charismatic in contrast to the other candidates?

First of all, she's an independent figure that hasn't been involved with the unpopular BSP. Second, she's been a somewhat notable trade union activist and leader in several popular causes (for example demonstrations against shale gas exploration) and stands apart from other candidates in her outspoken left-wing views.

Well, she did gain more prominence in the past three years, and, of course, the campaign raised her profile, but she was a notable trade union activist and leader in popular causes 4 years ago too, when she ran an independent campaign for EU Parliament and ended up with all of 2,679 votes in Sofia (approximately 0,4% of the citywide vote). She did have catchy campaign ads, but yes, I would say she managed this success mostly because she was the most charismatic and articulate of the major candidates. And also, because the scarcity of polls meant that the two narrative-driving polls the BSP pushed around the mid-point of the campaign (basically claiming a three way tie) got a lot of publicity, leading to a significant outflow from Vazrazhdane and other radical parties to BSP.

[MRCVzla]

Summary of exit polls in other oblasts capitals (mostly if not all, from Gallup) of the 1st round of the local elections, sans Sofia who was already published.
VARNA
Ivan Portnih (GERB) 27.1%
Blagomir Kotsev (PP-DB) 26.7%
Kosta Stoyanov (Vazrazhdane) 18.3%
Hristo Dimitrov (Alternative of the Citizens) 8.5%
Pavel Ralichkov (BSP) 6.9%

PLOVDIV
Kostadin Dimitrov (GERB) 32.1%
Ivaylo Staribratov (PP-DB) 22.4%
Slavcho Atanasov ("United for Plovdiv"/VMRO) 15.6%
Angel Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 7.5%
Kostadin Palazov (BSP) 6.0%

BLAGOEVGRAD
Ilko Stoyanov (Independent, right) 27.1%
Metodi Baykushev (PP-DB) 24.6%
Nikolay Shushkov (Independent left) 15.6%
Atanas Kambitov (Independent) 11.3%
Rumen Tomov ("Citizens for the Municipality") 4.9%

RUSE
Pencho Milkov (BSP i koalitsiya) 35.0%
Ivan Ivanov (GERB) 17.5%
Rena Stefanova (PP-DB) 11.7%
Iskren Veselinov ("Bulgaria of the Regions"/VMRO) 10.0%

STARA ZAGORA
Zhivko Todorov (GERB) 51.2%
Iskra Mihaylova (Vazrazhdane) 12.6%
Maria Dineva (ZNS) 11.5%
Dimitar Chorbadzhiev (PP-DB) 9.2%

KARDZHALI
Erol Myumyun (DPS) 55.1%
Nikola Chanev (GERB) 17.9%
Konstantina Karaboyukova (BSP) 8.9%
Daniela Petrova (Vazrazhdane) 8.5%
Radoslav Milev (PP-DB) 5.1%

VELIKO TARNOVO
Daniel Panov (GERB) 42.0%
Yordan Terziyski (PP-DB) 22.2%
Stilyan Naydenov (Vazrazhdane) 13.2%
Irena Stasinopoulou (BSP) 10.3%

HASKOVO
Stanislav Dechev (GERB) 42.1%
Nikolay Stavrev (Independent, supported by PP-DB and BSP) 22.0%
Georgi Ivanov ("Bulgarian Voice") 20.8%
Georgi Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 8.5%

PLEVEN
Valentin Hristov (GERB) 20.7%
Georg Spartanski (Independent) 19.7%
Chavdar Popov (Independent) 18.1%
Natalia Tsaneva (PP-DB) 8.0%
Eva Marinova (BSP) 5.3%
Danail Radentsov (Vazrazhdane) 5.0%

BURGAS
Dimitar Nikolov (GERB) 55.9%
Todor Angelov (Vazrazhdane) 8.7%
Konstantin Bachiyski (SEK) 7.9%
Stanimir Baev (BSP) 6.9%
Dimitar Naydenov (Independent) 6.8%

VRATSA
Kalin Kamenov (GERB) 68.5%
Ivan Ivanov (BSP) 9.9%
Kiril Kungalov (PP-DB) 6.0%

[RGM2609]

In the LOL department, I read online that in Varna, activists of other parties started sticking hard-to-remove stickers with the PP-DB candidate on windshields in order to annoy people into not voting for him.

[Beagle]

And so I went through 265/266* official results (pre-mandatory retabulation).

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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* Sofia, of course, is the exception, since only about half the results are officially in and municipal council seats and district mayorship run-offs may hinge on a few votes

Takeaways:

- By and large, small town Bulgarians are happy with their mayors, regardless of their party affiliation. Many of them won landslides even against 'major party' opposition;

- However, it is becoming the norm rather than the exception to split the mayorship and municipal council vote. Most not DPS-ownedcontrolled municipalities will have highly fractured municipal councils. Due to the decline of GERB, almost all 'oblast' cities will have councils of 29 or 33 members, where the largest party/ies will have 5 or 6 and there may be a dozen lists represented on the council - many of them supporting particular local oligarchs/strongmen.

- GERB will lose mayorship positions in oblast cities, but more or less stay even in small towns, offsetting a dozen or so losses with 5 or 6 gains from minor parties.

- DPS had a great election - they were able to defeat all but two of their dissidents, will gain two mayorships from GERB in Turkish-plurality municipalities and continue expanding their margins where they already rule. However, they have also hit a hard ceiling outside of their ethnic strongholds and can't make a further breakthrough in Bulgarian municipalities outside the few desperately poor places they already hold.

- PP-DB and Vazrazhdane did not particularly profit from their strategy to run (almost) everywhere. By my count, PP-DB will have 1 (one) mayorship in a non-oblast municipality, and Vazrazhdane will have 2, but one comes with an asterisk. Of course, both gained significant numbers of municipal councilors.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Vazrazhdane have nominally gained the previously mentioned Borovan municipality in Northwestern Bulgaria. However, the mayor-elect is the GERB candidate from 4 years ago, who did not run on the formal GERB line due to a paperwork mix-up, but still was endorsed by them.

As you may recall, Borovan was mentioned in connection with the 30% invalid votes there. The 3-term incumbent (nominally SDS and broad 'Old Right' coalition, in practice DPS) went to one of the precinct commissions in the process of counting the results and began giving them instructions on which ballots to accept and which to reject as invalid. However, she overlooked that the vote counting process is livestreamed nowadays. Upon observing this on the web, the challenger's goons concerned supporters stormed the school, trying to break down the door of the room where the commission was counting and entered into fistfights with the policemen trying to stop them. In the end, Borovan has just about 25% invalid votes in this election.

I appreciate the (now ex-)mayor's commitment to proving why, exactly, machine voting is preferable in such locations.

 

- Contrary to my expectation, BSP seem to have arrested their fall. They still will suffer a net loss in mayorships, but only because of party switches. They have mostly stayed put in the municipal councils as well, gaining some in the smaller municipalities where they once ruled the roost, but losing some in the municipal councils of the larger cities.  

I thank MRCVzla for posting the exit polls - in all cases they turned out to be right. Here is the maps of the party affiliations of the run-off candidates in all oblast cities ('ДРУГИ' is 'Others'). However, in all honesty, the likelihood is that none of the places listed will be known to you and, due to local factors and 'flags of convenience' sometimes the party affiliation does not tell even half the story.



I just will note the solitary shocking oblast result of the night - in the municipality southwest of Sofia with a GERB-Others run-off, a 20-year incumbent, who was first elected for SDS, fended off GERB in both 2007 and 2011 and then was co-opted for his past two re-elections, was held to just 29% of the vote by a minor party municipal councilor (who had finished 3rd in the mayoral race 4 years ago). Given that the challenger has 26.5% in the first round and that he has the support of PP-DB and BSP in the second, it is highly likely that he will prevail, which is something nobody saw coming.

[Beagle]

Preliminary final calculation of the seats in the Sofia Municipal Council. Unfortunately, VMRO will probably sneak in - entirely because the Reformist Bloc, scared for its existence, negotiated with GERB that None of These Options votes will be excluded from the Hare-Niemeyer calculations of the electoral threshold. Fat lot of good it did for them.

PP-DB - 23
GERB - 14
BSP - 9
Vazrazhdane - 8
'Old Right' list - 3
ITN - 3
VMRO - 1

GERB are grabbing the last seat at the moment, it can change with the last trickle of votes still outstanding and during the mandatory retabulation. If all parties fulfill their pre-election promises, the only option for a 31-seat majority is PP-DB & BSP, since Boris Bonev has sworn numerous times that he and Save Sofia people will never, under any circumstances, accept any partnership with GERB. Hypothetically, Save Sofia can split-off and there could be a 'right-wing' majority of the 14 remaining PP-DB councilors, GERB and the 'Old Right' list. Doubt that the mayor-elect (assuming Terziev wins, of course) will allow that, though. 

[MRCVzla]

Detailed results so far of the mayoral 1st round from all the Oblast capitals with more than 150k inhabitants (per oblast)
SOFIA (99.18% counted)
Vasil Terziev (PP-DB/SS) 31.82%
Vanya Grigorova (BSPzB/Levitsata) 21.58%
--------------------------------------------------
Anton Hekimyan (GERB/SDS) 17.84%
Deyan Nikolov (Vazrazhdane) 7.74%
Vili Lilikov (KOD) 5.70%
Ivaylo Valchev (ITN) 3.17%
Radostin Vasilev (Independent, former PP/ITN) 2.52%
Violeta Komitova (BV) 1.16%
Carlos Contreras (VMRO) 0.93%
None of the Above 3.76%

PLOVDIV
Kostadin Dimitrov (GERB) 33.72%
Ivaylo Staribratov (PP-DB) 17.90%
--------------------------------------------------------------
Slavcho Atanasov (United for Plovdiv/VMRO/Volya/Ataka) 13.40%
Angel Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 6.72%
Stanislav Balabanov (ITN) 5.04%
Savina Petkova (BPL, BSP splinter) 4.89%
Kostadin Palazov (BSPzB) 4.73%
Krasimir Asenov (DPS) 3.72%
None of the Above 2.96%

VARNA
Ivan Portnikh (GERB) 26.57%
Blagomir Kotsev (PP-DB) 21.56%
--------------------------------------------
Kosta Stoyanov (Vazrazhdane) 18.71%
Hristo Dimitrov (AG) 10.23%
Pavel Ralichkov (BSPzB) 6.04%
Ivaylo Kostadinov (ITN) 5.45%
Petar Yotov Nikolov (BV) 2.54%
Maria Todorova (Levitsata) 2.21%

None of the Above 5.41%

BURGAS
Dimitar Nikolov (GERB) 60.49% (elected)
Kostantin Bachiyski (SEK) 9.09%
Dimitar Naydenov (Independent, DB member) 7.86%
Todor Angelov (Vazrazhdane) 6.04%
Stanimir Baev (BSPzB) 4.32%
Todor Ivanov (ITN) 2.38%
Zhivko Tabakov (DBG/Levitsata) 2.26%
Stoyan Grozev (BV) 2.19%

None of the Above 2.86%

STARA ZAGORA
Zhivko Todorov (GERB) 55.64% (elected)
Iskra Mihaylova (Vazrazhdane) 13.09%
Maria Dineva (ZNS, agrarian) 11.60%
Ivan Varlyakov (BSPzB) 6.72%
Dimitar Chorbadzhiev (PP-DB) 6.21%
Tihomir Tenev (ITN) 3.07%
None of the Above 3.66%

BLAGOEVGRAD
Ilko Stoyanov (Independent, former ITN) 27.07%
Metodi Baykushev (PP-DB) 21.75%
--------------------------------------------------------
Nikolay Shushkov (Independent) 15.05%
Atanas Kambitov (Independent) 12.53%
Tsveta Rangelova (Vazrazhdane) 4.97%
Stanislav Bogdanski (ITN) 4.02%
Rumen Tomov (Citizens for the Municipality) 3.93%
None of the Above 5.18%

PAZARDZHIK
Todor Popov (New Time) 39.31%
Petar Kulenski (PP-DB) 16.17%
---------------------------------------------------------------
Blago Solov (Together for a Strong Community) 11.41%
Trendafil Velichkov (Great Movement Our City) 6.20%
Tsoko Tsokov (BSPzB) 5.20%
Chavdar Chavdarov (ZNS/DBG) 4.43%
Desislava Georgieva (Vazrazhdane) 3.55%
Ivan Papazov (ZS-AS, agrarian) 3.16%
Angel Vasilev (PD, Direct Democracy) 3.10%
None of the Above 3.10%

PLEVEN
Valentin Hristov (GERB) 19.44%
Georg Spartanski (Independent) 18.38%
----------------------------------------------
Chavdar Popov (Independent) 16.66%
Chavdar Hristanov (SEK) 6.36%
Aleksandar Nikolov (AG) 6.29%
Natalia Tsenova (PP-DB) 5.76%
Eva Marinova-Naydenova (BSPzB) 5.40%
Danail Radentsov (Vazrazhdane) 5.36%
Vladislav Nikolov (Together for a Strong Community) 4.97%
Dimcho Deshev (ITN) 2.97%
None of the Above 3.43%

HASKOVO
Stanislav Dechev (GERB) 47.72%
Nikolay Stavrev (Independent) 20.08%
---------------------------------------------
Georgi Ivanov (Bulgarian Voice) 19.29%
Georgi Georgiev (Vazrazhdane) 6.81%
Ivan Petkov Ivanov (ITN) 2.43%
None of the Above 3.68%

VELIKO TARNOVO
Daniel Panov (GERB) 42.37%
Yordan Terziyski (PP-DB) 20.97%
----------------------------------------------
Stilyan Naydenov (Vazrazhdane) 12.16%
Irena Stasinopoulou (BSPzB) 9.24%
Momchil Ivanov (ITN) 4.32%
Milen Mihov (VMRO) 3.64%
None of the Above 5.46%

RUSE
Pencho Milkov (BSPzB/Levitsata) 37.06%
Ivan Stefanov Ivanov (GERB) 15.29%
-------------------------------------------
Rena Stefanova (PP-DB) 10.79%
Iskren Veselinov (Bulgaria of the Regions/VMRO) 9.15%
Zlatan Zlatanov (Vazrazhdane) 6.58%
Borislav Bulgarinov (SSD) 4.66%
Anatoli Stanev (ITN) 3.73%
Stanimir Stanchev (SDS) 3.71%
Aydoan Celin (DPS) 2.90%
None of the Above 3.90%

SILVEN
Stefan Radev (GERB) 37.66%
Plamen Stoyanov (PD, Direct Democracy) 21.73%
--------------------------------------------------------
Mincho Afuzov (Independent) 15.08%
Kolyo Milev (BSPzB) 8.48%
Kliment Shopov (Vazrazhdane) 6.11%
Marincho Hristov (PP-DB) 5.96%
Mustafa Mustafov (DPS) 2.32%
None of the Above 2.67%

VRATSA
Kalin Kamenov (GERB) 67.01% (elected)
Krasimir Bogdanov (VMRO) 7.69%
Ivan Georgiev Ivanov (BSPzB) 7.01%
Ivaylo Papov (Vazrazhdane) 6.21%
Kiril Kungalov (PP-DB) 5.46%
None of the Above 3.16%

SHUMEN
Hristo Hristov (BSPzB) 26.74%
Georgi Kolev (GERB) 21.56%
------------------------------------------
Ventsislav Venkov (Levitsata) 9.64%
Nikolay Kolev (PP-DB) 9.37%
Sunay Isuf (DPS) 7.30%
Ivaylo Obertenov (Vazrazhdane) 7.13%
Hristomir Hristov (DBG) 5.43%
Petar Mladenov Petrov (Society for a New Bulgaria) 5.34%
None of the Above 4.04%

DOBRICH
Yordan Yordanov (DBG/ITN/NDSV/SSD/GN/VMRO) 27.21%
Krasimir Nikolov (GERB) 21.88%
------------------------------------------------------------------
Georgi Zhendov (Vazrazhdane) 14.35%
Yordanka Kostadin (PP-DB) 13.58%
Stoyan Lutskanov (BSPzB) 7.60%
Delyan Zhechev (Citizens for the Municipality) 3.79%
Nezhlya Amdi-Ganeva (DPS) 3.18%
None of the Above 3.08%

KARDZHALI
Erol Myumyun (DPS) 60.25% (elected)
Nikola Chanev (GERB) 14.51%
Daniela Petrova (Vazrazhdane) 11.00%
Radoslav Milev (PP-DB) 5.40%
Konstantina Karaboyukova (BSPzB) 4.85%
None of the Above 2.08%

Results site: https://results.cik.bg/mi2023/tur1/rezultati/2246.html

[Beagle]

Did... did you transcribe/translate the results for 17 Bulgarian cities? I would hope that you used automated software of some sort, but some minor errors here and there give me pause and there are some descriptors which could not have been added by an online translator. I appreciate the dedication, but there are maybe more productive uses of your time.
________________

The courts just threw out the Electoral Commission's decision to cancel machine voting, as expected - I mean, the Sofia Electoral Commission was maybe acting on impulse, but their scathing statement excoriating the procedure and the reasoning of their superiors was not not wrong. The second round will be held with machine/paper voting, as usual lately. The damage is already done, though - the municipal councils vote will not be reheld. Well, at least I think it won't. Currently two Sofia precinct commissions have gone missing together with the ballots. The likeliest scenario is that they simply were fed up with waiting, just dumped the bags with paperwork and ballots somewhere in the vicinity of the sports arena where the protocols are tallied and went home. But theoretically, if they had an abnormally high turnout, they could affect the results - certainly the municipal council and district mayor ones at least. Re-doing the election, incl. machine voting, is mooted, but extremely unlikely, of course.

[RGM2609]

I bet they are locked in Soros's basement together with hundreds of thousands of Revival votes! Stop the steal!

[GMantis]

Good work summarizing the election results!

Vazrazhdane have nominally gained the previously mentioned Borovan municipality in Northwestern Bulgaria. However, the mayor-elect is the GERB candidate from 4 years ago, who did not run on the formal GERB line due to a paperwork mix-up, but still was endorsed by them.

As you may recall, Borovan was mentioned in connection with the 30% invalid votes there. The 3-term incumbent (nominally SDS and broad 'Old Right' coalition, in practice DPS) went to one of the precinct commissions in the process of counting the results and began giving them instructions on which ballots to accept and which to reject as invalid. However, she overlooked that the vote counting process is livestreamed nowadays. Upon observing this on the web, the challenger's goons concerned supporters stormed the school, trying to break down the door of the room where the commission was counting and entered into fistfights with the policemen trying to stop them. In the end, Borovan has just about 25% invalid votes in this election.

I appreciate the (now ex-)mayor's commitment to proving why, exactly, machine voting is preferable in such locations.

It seems rather that the GERB mayor candidate switched parties at the last moment, taking nearly all of the candidates for the municipal council with him in the process. Probably explains why Vazrazhdane won 48.7% of the council vote in that municipality and GERB won just 1.1%.

Nice map, though I wonder why they've colored Sofia-oblast in this marking. Or any marking really since that oblast doesn't actually have a oblast city.

[Beagle]

It seems rather that the GERB mayor candidate switched parties at the last moment, taking nearly all of the candidates for the municipal council with him in the process. Probably explains why Vazrazhdane won 48.7% of the council vote in that municipality and GERB won just 1.1%.

Borovan is familiar to Bulgarian history buffs from the legendary dismayed outcry of our national hero Botev, 'Borovan sleeps and shall sleep forever', when the promised reinforcements and help from the rather prosperous village (for 1876 standards) did not materialize. These days the place is not prosperous at all, but it certainly is wide awake politically:
- the incumbent should have been removed from her post over an year ago - she was found to be in a conflict of interest when she awarded the municipality snow clearing contract to her partner, as well as let him lease municipality agricultural lands for a pittance. However, the municipal electoral commission failed to gather the required quorum to take the resolution for removal/scheduling the by-election, effectively nullifying the court
- for this election, Vazrazhdane filed the paperwork for the eventual winner first, then GERB attempted to also file with him on the ballot (he presumably had signed the papers for both parties), but were rejected as the first registration still stood. However, GERB certainly supported him.
- right now, a video from one of the precinct commissions is making the rounds in the media. The members had finished counting the ballots and decided to take the break before counting the preferences. They asked the livestream to be paused, but the person working the camera apparently made a mistake. So now everybody can see how the members went through the ballots where the voter did not express a preference and marked them with preferences for the candidate(s) from their own village from the list of the respective party.

Nice map, though I wonder why they've colored Sofia-oblast in this marking. Or any marking really since that oblast doesn't actually have a oblast city.

Quite! And, if anything, Sofia region is among the least fertile places for GERB in small municipalities, where local coalitions rule in most places and BSP has some residual strength.

________________
Sofia municipal council results are confirmed as per my earlier post. From what I gather, the authorities just deleted the two missing sections from existence (this is not the first time that has happened either). The 24 Sofia districts will have 22 run-offs (two PP-DB incumbents winning outright), 18 of which will feature PP-DB and GERB (all but three with PP-DB leading after the first round), one between PP-DB and the incumbent originally elected by DB, one between GERB and the independent incumbent, one between GERB and a DB activist, who was not selected by the coalition and ran an independent campaign, one - in the Boyko Borisov birthplace and hometown Bankya - between GERB and Vazrazhdane.

The 6 Plovdiv districts will see 5 run-offs between GERB and PP-DB, with GERB candidates entering with a 5-10% lead in all, and one run-off between GERB and a local list (ostensibly left wing), where the difference in the first round is just 41 votes.

2 of the 5 Varna districts have already elected GERB-ers in the 1st round. The other three saw very close battles, with a few hundred votes proving decisive, two will feature PP-DB vs GERB and one will be GERB vs a local list.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sofia municipal council results are confirmed as per my earlier post. From what I gather, the authorities just deleted the two missing sections from existence (this is not the first time that has happened either).

*literally* that Stalin quote about vote counters lmao

[Beagle]

- However, it is becoming the norm rather than the exception to split the mayorship and municipal council vote. Most not DPS-ownedcontrolled municipalities will have highly fractured municipal councils. Due to the decline of GERB, almost all 'oblast' cities will have councils of 29 or 33 members, where the largest party/ies will have 5 or 6 and there may be a dozen lists represented on the council - many of them supporting particular local oligarchs/strongmen.

No, but seriously, it is getting ridiculous.

Varna municipal council - 51 members from 12 parties and coalitions

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In parentheses - comparison with 2019 election, in case of local coalitions comparison with their closest progenitor:

PP-DB - 8 (+ 4)
GERB - 8 (-10) !
Vazrazhdane - 7 (+3)
Local Coalition A - 6 (+3)
Local Coalition B - 5 (+1)
Local Coalition C - 5 (+4)
DPS - 3 (-)
BSP - 3 (-5) !
Levicata - 2 (+2)
ITN - 2 (+2)
SDS - 1 (-1)
Local Coalition D - 1 (+1)

Volya and VMRO with 2 seats each are out

Ruse municipal council - 39 members from 11 parties and coalitions

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In parentheses - comparison with 2019 election, in case of local coalitions comparison with their closest progenitor:

BSP (party of the incumbent mayor) - 12 (-2)
GERB - 9 (-7)
PP-DB - 7  (+4)
Vazrazhdane - 5 (+4)
Local Coalition A - 4 (-4)
DPS - 3 (+1)
SDS - 3 (-1)
ITN - 3 (+3)
Local Coalition B - 3 (+3)
Local Coalition C - 1 (-)
BV - 1 (+1)

Ataka, with 2 seats, is out

___________

Boyko Borisov indirectly endorsed the BSP candidate for the Sofia run-off, in return for PP-DB endorsing the the GERB opponents in virtually all contests that will be decided on Sunday. IMO, this may actually work out better for Terziev - I would have been more worried if Borisov had said something along the lines of 'Terziev is the best way to continue the GERB legacy in Sofia' or something.

Terziev will also be slightly advantaged by the end of the mid-term school holiday, which led to a small exodus of families last weekend. Of course, not enough to explain the 15% drop-off in turnout in Sofia compared to 2019 - this was mostly the disappointed anti-GERB and anti-BSP vote, which now also wants to punish PP-DB for aligning themselves with the enemy. But there are also those who want to punish GERB for aligning themselves with the PP-DB traitors and apostates. So in essence, the election was won mostly by the 'smartbeautiful' voters who dutifully vote out of civic obligation more than conviction.

[RGM2609]

How do you see the future of the GERB/PP-DB "cooperation"? Do you believe its end is imminent?

[Beagle]

How do you see the future of the GERB/PP-DB "cooperation"? Do you believe its end is imminent?

I stand by my earlier prediction, that the 'non-coalition' will stick around until at least the amendments to the Constitution are passed in December (which, by extension, means that the non-coalition will make the budget for 2024). Most people think they will tough it out until the rotation comes up in March 2024, where the great unknown is how much leeway Maria Gabriel will have to replace PP ministers. PP leaders are adamant that she should not be allowed to do so (at least without the consent of PP-DB) and this may very well prove to be the end of this 'assembly'.

[RGM2609]

Do you think the door for cooperation between GERB and BSP is still open after this unholy union choked to death? I remember it being the most likely outcome before the EU leaders intervened

[Beagle]

Do you think the door for cooperation between GERB and BSP is still open after this unholy union choked to death? I remember it being the most likely outcome before the EU leaders intervened

Under Ninova? Yes, absolutely, provided that both parties feel that is in their best interest.

Under another BSP leader*? Yes, absolutely, provided that both parties feel that is in their best interest.

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Grigorova, the Sofia mayor candidate, is strongly rumored to be interested in challenging Ninova for the BSP leadership

Sorry to be glib, but see pg. 1 re: the Bulgarian kabuki theater.

However, at this time, it does not appear to be in either party's best interest. Ninova has issued a blanket endorsement of all GERB opponents everywhere in the run-offs. Borisov has realigned from a Rumen Radev opponent to, at least, a Rumen Radev co-habitant, so he no longer needs Ninova to attack Radev from the left. The possibility that GERB and DPS (which have been functioning as conjoined twins for the past 6 months) decide to ditch PP-DB and form a coalition with BSP in this parliament is rather low.

________________________________________________________

Nationwide municipal council results:

Total number of councilors: 5053
GERB: 1499 (- ~300)
DPS: 946 (+ 30)
BSP: 740 (- 280)
PP-DB: 396 (+ ~300, compared to DB alone)
Vazrazhdane: 199 (+ ~160)
ITN: ~80 (+ ~80)

Caveat: this are the nominal affiliations without taking into account coalitions, dissident lists, 'flags of convenience' etc.

[Beagle]

At the final possible moment, Boyko Borisov/GERB endorsed Terziev, the PP/DB candidate in Sofia. The bookies had apparently priced that in, because the odds didn't move at all - Terziev is still priced at 1.25, Grigorova (BSP) at 3.75. The spiciest run-off contest (in a city someone might have heard of) is Varna, where the scandal-plagued incumbent is probably the slight underdog against the PP-DB candidate, but he is going down fighting.

[MRCVzla]

Second round today, exit polls by Gallup:
SOFIA
Terziev (PP-DB) 50.8%
Grigorova (BSP-led) 45.2%

BLAGOEVGRAD
Baykushev (PP-DB) 49.5%
Stoyanov (Ind) 48.1%

VARNA
Kotsev (PP-DB) 49.4%
Portnikh (GERB) 45.3%

PLOVDIV
Dimitrov (GERB) 52.8%
Staribratov (PP-DB) 41.5%

PLEVEN (Trend)
Hristov (GERB) 61.8%
Spartanski (Ind) 32.5%

Alpha Research has Terziev 49.7-43.8 Grigorova in Sofia race, Trend pollster says 51.9-43.4 also in favor of Terziev, other pollster Market Links projects at other races, in Plovdiv: Dimitrov 51.5-39.1 Staribratov (at Trend 53.2-41.2) , Varna: Kotsev 48.3-43.9 Portnikh (at Trend 48.9-45.1). Blagoevgrad: Stoyanov 48.8-47.0 Baykushev being the most disputed. GERB also leads in Haskovo and Veliko Tarnovo while BSP is ahead in Ruse (60.5-33.0 against GERB candidate).

[Beagle]

Run-off ramblings:

1. the Sofia race is a nailbiter and the winner will not be clear until early in the morning. The signs are not great for PP-DB-SS - Terziev made a short statement urging patience and refused to take any questions from the media. All parallel counts show him the winner by around 1.5% of the vote, but given the momentum, it is a far cry from the convincing win that exit polls showed for much of the day. It is becoming a pattern that PP-DB voters are excessively keen to talk to exit pollsters, while GERB and BSP voters are more reticent.

PP-DB-SS may have made a clear sweep of the run-offs for district mayors, but it will be scant consolation if they fail to gain the municipality mayorship.

2. Edit: As it appears that Boyko Borisov's close personal friend in his hometown Bankya maybe has lost the district mayorship, Borisov is currently on TV, accusing PP-DB of collaborating with Vazrazhdane and threatening the end of the non-coalition

3. There appears to have been been a massive tactical anti-GERB vote throughout the country in the run-off. Incumbents that nobody saw losing will lose to random PP-DB/minor party candidates. GERB will also fail to hold any of the municipalities where they retired the incumbent. OTOH they will gain a seat from the former Reformist Bloc turned ITN turned Radev-ite turned independent in Pleven. As the great philosopher once said:

A friend to all is a friend to none
             Aristotle Taylor Swift

[Beagle]

A separate post will follow for Sofia, where the PP-DB candidate's winning margin ended up around 1.2% - roughly 5,000 votes. Of course, given the Sofia-centric Bulgarian media, as well as the multiple narratives that can be spun around the surprisingly close race, the capital has sucked in about 90% of the election coverage that I've seen. But here is the 'big picture':

GERB : 13 (-8) oblast mayorships

At this moment in time, GERB are caught in a quandary - should they try to spin the results as a major victory or as a loss inflicted by the betrayal of their non-coalition partners. Until they settle on a narrative, I will just note that the 'non-coalition' or assembly does not have a negative affect on PP-DB alone.

DPS: 1 (-) oblast mayorship

Having won emphatic victories in their strongholds in the first round, the DPS were (relatively) disinterested observers in the second. In the few run-offs where they qualified in Bulgarian majority municipalities, the voters rallied around their opponents.

BSP: 4 (+2) oblast mayorships

BSP emerged as the surprising winners of the second round. I could nitpick - one of the mayorships they gained in the northeast of the country was won by a former 'Patriotic Front'/VMRO MP, the other was won against a GERB nominee who had previously served as a DPS MP and was thus tainted in the eyes of many  - but given the Sofia result, the fact that they won all but two (one of them Sofia) of the major run-offs they were in and, especially, that their position as a natural channel for the anti-GERB vote in the countryside and thus they gained numerous small municipalities, means that Ninova has every right to claim victory. One of their few losses was the second-to-last mayor who had served since 1991 and was going for a 9th term in office.

PP-DB: 4 (+4) oblast mayorships

There is a lot to unravel, but unless there is a particular interest in a topic, I will just point this out:
- PP-DB received a better outcome than what was expected immediately before the first and, especially, after the second round;
- OTOH, they failed to achieve any sort of breakthrough in the countryside (holding less mayorships in 228 non-oblast municipalities than in the 27 oblasts) and are currently in a soul-searching mode having to stay up until 5 am when the official vote count finally moved past the point where Sofia could have been lost;
- Outside of Sofia and Varna, where the pre-election expectations were high, the other two oblast wins came out of the blue (or rather out of the red/brown of BSP (and its offshoots) and nationalists that supported the PP candidates in the second round). Before the first round, one of the two new mayors would have been given, charitably, about 20% chances of winning, and the other was considered to have no chance at all against the entrenched incumbent/oligarch. Whereas in cities where PP-DB were hopeful beforehand and which saw considerable efforts and expenses, they finished a rather distant second or failed to qualify for the run-off.

The spiciest run-off contest (in a city someone might have heard of) is Varna, where the scandal-plagued incumbent is probably the slight underdog against the PP-DB candidate, but he is going down fighting.

Wasn't particularly close in the end - a 53:41 drubbing for the corrupt incumbent.

Vazrazhdane: 0 (-) oblast mayorships

Lots to unravel here too, but in two words - Vazrazhdane lost.

ITN: 1 (+1) oblast mayorships

Another case where all parties (+ the deselected incumbent) rallied against GERB in the second round, but it caps off a surprisingly good local election for ITN.

Minor parties - 3 (-)

Both the loss (Pleven) and the gain (Kyustendil in the southwest of the country) in this category were already covered. Local business interests play too much of a role in these cases to bring national implications to light.

On the whole, unlike the first round, the voters threw out a lot of incumbents, which stands to reason - when the majority felt that the mayor needs to be replaced on 29 October, it would take a rather bad challenger to make them change their mind by 5 November. There is an observable backlash against the non-coalition, but it does not appear strong enough to seriously threaten the GERB-PP-DB-DPS 'assembly', unless it dissolves itself.

[Beagle]

So, Sofia.

Tons of (digital) ink is spilled already on the much-closer-than-expected Sofia result, talking heads choose to interpret the results in whichever way can get them most clicks/attention. I find most of these explanations overwrought - e.g. I don't think that there has been a realignment which replaced the old 'communist'/'anti-communist' dichotomy with a 'globalist'/'traditionalist' one, nor do I find allegations that the Russians were financing Grigorova particularly credible.

I do not lend particular credence to the vote flows based on the exit polls either. But if they are to be believed, there is a likelihood that  the PP-DB-SS candidate's virtually entire winning margin comes from the 10% of voters who switched to him after supporting the Vazrazhdane candidate in the first round, while some 70% of Vazrazhdane supporters voted for Grigorova and the rest selected None of the above (with many pundits stating that had Vazrazhdane explicitly endorsed and worked for Grigorova, she would have won). Since Terziev is antithetical to virtually everything Vazrazhdane stand for, the only explanation I can come up with are hardcore misogynists and/or believers in the theory that Grigorova is ethnic Romani. She certainly does not identify as one, but she was raised (in part) in a Roma ghetto in Sofia.

The voter flow analysis also indicates that Grigorova picked up more support than Terziev from all the defeated candidates, including GERB, despite the last minute endorsement. The sole exception is the 'Old Right' candidate. However, one in four of the 'Old Right' voters apparently decided that they needed to stop the scion of Communist Secret Service operatives by voting for the candidate of the coalition between the Russophile Party, the Bulgarian Communist Party, The Party of Bulgarian Communists and the People's Front of Jud... Communist Party of Bulgaria.

Anecdotal observations from my own turnout drive: I've had three separate people tell me they would have voted for Terziev against the GERB candidate if the run-off had been between them. However, it would have been a vote against GERB and not a vote for Terziev and, in GERB's absence, they saw no reason to go to the polls.

[Beagle]

Sofia district mayors map (slightly monochrome this time):



Comments:

- GERB ended up winning the run-off with Vazrazhdane in Boyko Borisov's hometown of Bankya (district 24) quite comfortably. They also unseated the independent incumbent in Pancharevo district (district 23), who did nothing to endear himself to any of the major parties through his term and was left without partisan support in the run-off. He was also running against a fairly high profilet sitting member of parliament. Other than that, GERB went 1/18 in run-offs against PP-DB, losing 11 incumbents in the process, many by landslides.

- PP-DB lost the internal duel against the de-selected incumbent of district 16 (originally elected as DB), but I've marked the winner in their colors. I also did that for the independent candidate in district 21, since he was the 2015 Reformist Bloc candidate and had been running for the DB nomination for quite a while, however the DSB/DB quota within the PP-DB-SS coalition for district mayors was filled by incumbents and he was switched out at the last minute. I don't expect either of the dissidents to be particularly confrontational against PP-DB-SS, even though both are understandably aggrieved.

- In 'red' Izgrev, the winning candidate was the incumbent, elected in 2019 for BSP. He spoke out against the BSP fight against voting by machine and on other issues, was expelled by Ninova and promptly switched parties. The incumbent in district 22, originally elected as a joint candidate by SDS, GERB, DB and VMRO also switched and ran as PP-DB-SS alone.

Can somebody show me the code for resizing images - I want to present the 5 elections in which Sofia district elections were held (1995*, 2007, 2015, 2019 and 2023) in chronological order, but can't get the pictures I've uploaded in the gallery to show in the same size.

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At some point in the past few years somebody made a visualizer for the old MS-DOS database of the elections between 1991 and 1999 that was sitting around on the Electoral Commission's webpage, so now I can check results down to the precinct level

I would be happy to create maps along these lines for Plovdiv and Varna too, but I haven't found any decent online representation of Plovdiv and Varna districts yet. Also, GERB swept both cities in 2015 and 2019.

In the 2023 election, the 5 GERB vs PP-DB run-offs in Plovdiv resulted in 3 GERB and 2 PP-DB wins. The GERB vs "Bulgarian Progressive Line" resulted in a GERB landslide.

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Here I need to make a distinction, since I saw MRCVzla describe BPL as 'BSP splinter': in Plovdiv BPL sold their ballot line ran a local interest slate of candidates for a local conglomerate group of concerned citizens named 'Bravo Plovdiv'. Given that BPL are non-existent normally, their acronym was the most valuable contribution to the project.

Given the rout in Varna, the 3 GERB district candidates (including a former MEP) who were not elected in the first round were swept: two by PP-DB and one by a local list.

[Beagle]

Sofia Municipal Council update:

PP-DB - 23
GERB - 14
BSP - 9
Vazrazhdane - 8
'Old Right' list - 3
ITN - 3
VMRO - 1

GERB are grabbing the last seat at the moment, it can change with the last trickle of votes still outstanding and during the mandatory retabulation. If all parties fulfill their pre-election promises, the only option for a 31-seat majority is PP-DB & BSP, since Boris Bonev has sworn numerous times that he and Save Sofia people will never, under any circumstances, accept any partnership with GERB. Hypothetically, Save Sofia can split-off and there could be a 'right-wing' majority of the 14 remaining PP-DB councilors, GERB and the 'Old Right' list. Doubt that the mayor-elect (assuming Terziev wins, of course) will allow that, though. 

Gridlock is the natural state of Bulgarian politics, but even by the current standards, the parties took the stalemate to the brink of a never-before-applied arcane provision in the relevant law: when the municipal council fails to meet for three months, it gets automatically dissolved and a snap election is held.

As mentioned above, the expectation was that PP-DB-SS would work with BSP for a working majority. However, within 2 weeks of the election, the re-elected district mayor and the oblast governor (both of whom belong to the DB 'Old Right' faction) took steps to dismantle the prominent monument to the Soviet army in the Sofia city center, which was seen a long time bugbear of the SDS/DSB/DB hardcore vote. This produced howls of outrage from BSP and Vazrazhdane (although their attempts at forming a human chain and other protests fizzled out) and the BSP municipal council grouping outright refused to work in any form with PP-DB-SS. On the other hand, the SS component of PP-DB outright refused to entertain any form of cooperation with GERB. Vazrazhdane and ITN, as is their wont, also refused to do... anything, really.

As a result, the newly elected Sofia Municipal Council failed to elect its chairman since the first 7 (private) votes yielded the exact same straight party line result (GERB refused to participate in the procedure out of spite). Even an agreement brokered by the Old Right faction, in which a temporary chairman from PP-DB-SS would be elected by them, ITN, VMRO and some Vazrazhdane splinters* failed when ITN pulled out at the last minute.

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Keeping with a long-established tradition of the Bulgarian nationalist parties, the Vazrazhdane group suffered its first breakaway even before the oath was taken and by now more than half of their grouping are no longer taking orders from the leadership

Only today, 9 February, 2 months and 25 days after the first sitting of the municipal council did a temporary chair from PP-DB-SS get elected, with only ITN, the rump Vazrazhdane and a handful of BSP/GERB holdouts voting against. It seems that despite some posturing, nobody was really eager to test the uncharted legal territory whether or not a municipal council is meeting when it cannot even elect its chairman, without whom it is impossible to move on to any other business.

BSP leader Ninova is threatening the Sofia leadership with expulsion, since they went against party orders in voting alongside PP-DB-SS and GERB.

Sofia Mayor update: Defeated BSP mayoral candidate Grigorova* has appealed the election results in court and, while the count currently shows that Terziev, the PP-DB-SS mayor, has been denied significantly more valid votes than Grigorova has, the number of discrepancies and the votes having been stored haphazardly, make it not inconceivable that snap Sofia mayor elections may be ordered.

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who has effectively departed the BSP grouping in the meantime

Other local updates: The live video feed of the counting process had the (un?)intended consequence that a number of elections will have to be re-run, but the court system is still sorting out which ones exactly. In general, Bulgarian courts have been rather reticent to order new elections, even where there are deep and obvious flaws in voting and counting, but in some cases the discrepancies are rather egregious, so at least two oblast-cities are expected to have re-runs of their municipal council elections. As to mayors, GERB have challenged the elections of a number of PP-DB-ers on procedural grounds, but the lawyers have only begun their work.


Other other updates: As stated numerous times, I have no particular desire to discuss non-electoral news - and I would get quite depressed if I did cover the farmers protests, the energy sector protests or the idiotic things that the non-coalition is doing to keep inflation under the threshold needed to adopt the Euro at the beginning of 2025.

However some political happenings that may have direct electoral consequences need mentioning:

- GERB-DPS and PP-DB are currently embroiled in a dispute about the upcoming rotation, where PP-DB have reneged on the original non-coalition condition that the current PM Denkov (PP) shall step down and become deputy PM and Education minister under PM Maria Gabriel (GERB). The current demand is that Denkov should replace Gabriel in her position as Foreign minister, as well as becoming deputy PM when the rotation happens in about a month's time. Considering that a number of ministers will also be replaced - presumably by non-palatable GERB-ers, I consider it more likely than not that PP-DB will pull the plug on the rotation agreement. With the 2023 constitutional changes now in effect, GERB-DPS are feeling quite comfortable about the prospect of a caretaker government which will now be outside of President Radev's hands and early parliamentary elections, maybe together with the Euros, seem likelier than not.

- The DPS component of the GERB-DPS coalition unceremoniously dumped its official chairman and 2021 Presidential candidate Karadyi upon orders by honorary chairman and effective leader Ahmed Dogan. It was rumored that Karadayi's departure was orchestrated because of his fairly evident support for Kılıçdaroğlu in the Turkish Presidential election earlier. However, in a recent visit, the current Erdoğan FM made a point of meeting Karadyi individually and separately from the present DPS leadership.

The reasons may be more prosaic - Karadayi's successor as (co*-)chairman Delyan Peevski provided Dogan with an urgent cash infusion when Dogan's electric powerplant was hit with a record fine recently.

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Peevski was expected to become the sole chairman, however faced with an apparent revolt at the prospect of an ethnic Bulgarian leading the party of the Turkish minority, Dogan suddenly announced the co-chairmanship scheme

- As to the Euros themselves (which should be next on the electoral calendar), you would be hard pressed to know that they are happening in less than 4 months time. GERB and BSP are expected to have a whole-scale cleanout of their MEPs (and suffer slight (GERB) or significant (BSP) losses in their number), but nothing has leaked out so far. PP-DB have a proposed joint list out, but DB are currently pondering if they should not strike out on their own, given that they have recently overtaken PP in polls where the two entities are listed separately. And ITN are apparently strongly considering giving the VMRO incumbent and general gadfly Dzhambazki another lease of life in Brussels.
 

[Beagle]

Considering that a number of ministers will also be replaced - presumably by non-palatable GERB-ers, I consider it more likely than not that PP-DB will pull the plug on the rotation agreement. With the 2023 constitutional changes now in effect, GERB-DPS are feeling quite comfortable about the prospect of a caretaker government which will now be outside of President Radev's hands and early parliamentary elections, maybe together with the Euros, seem likelier than not.

If you have been following this thread for a while, you will have noticed that my predictions seldom hit the mark. Not this time, though*. Contrary to what the vast majority of pundits, observers and general all-knowers proclaimed for months - who were all convinced that 'the Embassy' would pull the required number of strings to ensure the rotation takes place - it seems that we are heading for (yet another) snap election, presumably at the same time as the EU parliament.

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Although in this case I rather wish I had been wrong, as the assembly is presently looking as a much better scenario than upcoming alternatives

The particular reasons barely seem worth mentioning - feel free to ask, but in general the a bunch of loathsome characters doing loathsome things to other loathsome characters description of Bulgarian politics on the first page of this thread will suffice.

We are heading into uncharted waters constitutionally, as under the amendments adopted in late 2023, parliament shall no longer be dissolved and the president no longer has free choice of caretaker PMs and ministers. Instead, the caretaker PM needs to be selected from a very short list of public officials - who at present are almost all GERB appointees - and then the PM-designate will select his or her own choice of ministers.

Given the general tomfoolery, it is not impossible that all the officials on the list will decline to serve, in which case nobody has the faintest clue what is supposed to happen. However, chances are that one of the GERB-ers will in fact be appointed. The other potential issue is that DPS would very much like the two elections to be held on separate dates - their constituents in Turkey are not allowed to vote in the Euro elections and, given that they have extensive 'donor vote' systems in place, a 2-in-1 election can throw a wrench in their machine. Given the number of witting and unwitting helpers DPS has, it is possible that the parliamentary election is held on either 02 June or 16 June, taxpayers be damned.

As a very rough state-of-play, the broad consensus is that GERB -DPS will score gains, though not in absolute terms, but relatively. Turnout is expected to be significantly lower, so their steady support base should yield proportionally higher results. As to PP-DB, at least 1 in 5 of their voters in the last election will not repeat, possibly more. Vazrazhdane are also expected to lose ground compared to 2023 after the wave of departures/expulsions which followed the local elections, even if only marginally. BSP were on the up, but the locals empowered the opposition to Ninova to seek her ouster yet again. It is quite likely that the broad left will - again - have two lists to choose from in both the Euro and the Bulgarian elections - the Ninova one carrying the BSP brand and the dissident list, which will carry the BSP substance. And, as previously mentioned, the BSP brand has always won this battle in the past. ITN will again be teetering on the threshold, but probably above it, according to pollsters. As to the long-awaited-President-Radev-ite party - many people expected it to launch on the date of the Bulgarian national holiday, 3 March, from the kernel of the movement which Radev headed to preserve that day as the national holiday against the PP-DB proposal to change it to a different date*. However, Radev procrastinated yet again, leaving a rather short window of opportunity if he is to endorse a list in time for the election.

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* having 3 March as the biggest national holiday is seen by some as a servile sop to Russia, as this is the date of the Russo-Ottoman armistice which brought about the liberation of Bulgaria, but:
- had absolutely no input by Bulgarians in its contents and little in the war which brought it about
- never actually produced any effect

  

I am trying to gauge if there is any interest in discussing other, ostensibly non-political elections - the chairmanship of the Bulgarian Football Union which was just held, as well as the election of the next Patriarch of the Bulgarian Orthodox church, which will be held after the parliamentary election. Unsurprisingly, these elections have turned into proxy political fights with significant implications. Post if you are interested in one or both, but if it is just one or two people, I probably will find other ways to occupy my time.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I am trying to gauge if there is any interest in discussing other, ostensibly non-political elections - the chairmanship of the Bulgarian Football Union which was just held, as well as the election of the next Patriarch of the Bulgarian Orthodox church, which will be held after the parliamentary election. Unsurprisingly, these elections have turned into proxy political fights with significant implications. Post if you are interested in one or both, but if it is just one or two people, I probably will find other ways to occupy my time.

I am interested in both, but especially in the former  because it reminds me of something I have been wondering for a while - what's up with Ludogorets? An oligarch club suddenly becoming a juggernaut is not shocking for a country like Bulgaria, but the scale of it seems truly unique.