🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
GMantis:
Map of election results by districts:
Since there was so little variation in GERB's results, I switched to a 5% increment to show better their strongest and weakest districts.
Beagle:
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on October 03, 2022, 04:27:02 PM
Oh boy. Well, I guess that does explain a lot about your election results. :D
Either way I'm mostly focused on the leadership, since they're the ones who will be making policy. How would you rate the probability of each of these parties ending up in the government coalition?
The probability for any sort of government coalition, as in Bulgarian parties with more than 120 MPs actually agreeing to cooperate, nominate a mutually acceptable PM and ministers from each of the parties, is infinitesimally small. If one forms, it would be only because of the heavy external pressure both from Europe and the US for us to get our [act] together. In that scenario, the likeliest combinations exclude all of the above parties. The math isn't mathing for virtually any other plausible coalition.
A very rough guesstimate of the probabilities as they appear today:
60% - the new parliament dissolves after 3 failed attempts to form a government (probably after passing the budget of the caretakers), Radev appoints his 5th cabinet, round 5 in February or March of 2023;
25% - an assortment of parties (the only one I would categorically exclude is Vazrazhdane) support a short-lived 'technocratic' government with the main goal to guarantee and distribute the EU recovery funding;
13% - one or both of PP/DB bite the bullet and enter into an arrangement with GERB, most likely by having DPS support the investiture vote without providing any ministers. Some pundits have mooted the possibility of GERB voting in a PP/DB minority government, but after Borisov's arrest, GERB are really hostile to PP's leadership. Today GERB announced that the government formation talks will be led on their behalf by 2011-2016 President Plevneliev - without going into too much detail, this diminishes this probability even further.
1% - a party (most likely BV on the third round of government formation) proposes the current caretaker government for a vote, enough parties are scared to go to the polls again to vote them in, they agree to serve until the local elections next year, but most likely flounder at some earlier point;
1% - GERB form some sort of unholy alliance/national salvation government with any 3 of DPS, BSP, DB and BV - or just 2 of them and buy off enough MPs from other parties to get to the magic 121 number
Antonio the Sixth:
Thanks. Very informative.
It sounds like Bulgaria is engulfed in a serious political crisis with no end in sight. Best of luck dealing with that.
GMantis:
Map of election results by municipalities:
Some observations:
- Though not as immediately clear as last year, GERB has consistently done better in more rural areas (especially where they control what is euphemistically called the "company vote") and worse in larger cities.
-The results in Sofia are quite comparable to the April 2021 election, only with PP in the role of DB. In fact they'd probably have done better if they weren't competing for the same type of voters.
-With the abysmal turnout and the narrow split between the non-minority parties, DPS has won the most municipalities ever. Simultaneously, BSP had its worst result in geographical terms as well as in percentage of votes and rank.
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆:
Is the reason DPS won a lot of municipalities in Montana Oblast but zero in Sliven Oblast despite the latter being just as Romani and much more Turkish (I love Wikipedia) that BSP has much more residual strength in the former just like in all the northwest which lowered GERB's score? And relatedly, why is the northwest the most Socialist area of Bulgaria?
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page