🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
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  🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
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DavidB.
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« Reply #200 on: July 12, 2022, 02:33:23 PM »

Many thanks for your elaborate response.
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Beagle
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« Reply #201 on: July 18, 2022, 09:22:58 AM »

In a few minutes - for the third time in succession over the past 15 months - President Radev will hand BSP leader Ninova the third and final government formation mandate. Like the previous two times, the expectation is that it will fail and we'll head to new elections, most likely on 5 October. IMO Radev's protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, choosing BSP is a rather clear sign that he and his advisers are getting ready to take over the reigns of the country again. By the end of that new government's time in office, Radev appointed caretakers will have been in charge for just about one year of his six years in office.

BSP state that they have every intention to realize the mandate with the help of the other 'non-toxic' parties, including both ITN proper and the ITN dissidents. In comparison to the other realistic alternative - handing the mandate to DB - Ninova has more of a chance to get ITN support. However, the way to do that would, presumably, ensure that ITN continues to have control or at least influence over the Foreign ministry, where the incumbent:
.. the defence nominee from the failed ITN proposed cabinets of 3 months ago. Who, while having some experience with NATO summits and the like, is a career military woman and was mostly known as Radev's advisor.
has had quite different policies than PM Petkov and his party, especially on the Macedonian issue. Radev, BSP and ITN were all 'hawks' on blocking Macedonia's EU accession, with the outgoing FM accusing Petkov of betrayal when he negotiated the 'French proposal', which resolved the issue*, behind the FM's back. But a BSP/ITN/Radev-ite foreign policy is not something PP and DB are likely to sign up for - e.g. negotiation with Gazprom for resumption of gas deliveries against payment in roubles is no-go for both parties, but something BSP and Radev are quite insistent on. Also, many ITN proper/PP bridges burned down in the past few weeks, so while ITN have sounded keen on prolonging the life of the parliament, PP are emphatically toning it down and getting ready for elections. When the DB leader Ivanov proposed holding talks with ITN, PM Petkov put up (and then deleted) a facebook post rejecting the 'limp diplomatic wrists' that would compromise on the corruption fight.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



The expectation is that Ninova will nominate as PM the 34-year-old ex-chairman of parliament Nikola Minchev from PP, whose ouster was the first flexing of the 'new majority'.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


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MRCVzla
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« Reply #202 on: August 01, 2022, 06:22:02 AM »

Radev will dissolve parliament tomorrow. 4th round legislative election on October 2nd (plus in the meantime, new caretaker govt.). BSP returned the 3rd mandate last Thursday (July 28) because their program about elect a new anti-corruption commision head backfired (opposition voted against).
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #203 on: August 01, 2022, 07:25:23 AM »

So how long until Donev also starts his own party?  Mock
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Beagle
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« Reply #204 on: August 02, 2022, 08:23:15 AM »

4th round legislative election on October 2nd (plus in the meantime, new caretaker govt.). BSP returned the 3rd mandate last Thursday (July 28) because their program about elect a new anti-corruption commision head backfired (opposition voted against).

Quite so, although to be pedantic, the "let's keep this parliament/government on life support until the locals in late '23" talks had already collapsed and the vote was after the point of no return. The ostensible reason for the failure was the meeting the DB parliamentary group held to discuss the ongoing negotiations. The problem was that the meeting was held in the same room in parliament where some committee had just met and the livestreaming was still on. GERB MPs drew attention to it on social media and everybody could watch... nothing particularly interesting. The whole thing was extraordinarily ordinary (well, the language was a bit more colorful than a standard interview), but ITN leader Slavi Trifonov took umbrage about a passage in which the DB leader talked how PP can no longer claim purity now that they (PP) have allowed for the possibility of continuation of partnership of sorts with ITN. Which Trifonov took to mean that DB and PP refer to ITN as 'mafia' behind closed doors and, accusing them of being power-hungry hypocrites, broke off conversations.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



So yeah, ITN keep mashing that self-destruct button. Just the other day they rejected VMRO overtures for a broad patriotic coalition (with Yanev's BV and the ex-United Patriots) and will, of course, run alone as the sole defenders of truth, justice and the Am...Bulgarian way. All others are liars and hypocrites.


Donev himself is quite unlikely to start a party on his own behalf. He is a nondescript social security guy, whose career as a BSP-aligned civil servant never really brought him into the limelight until he became Radev's adviser and took part in all 3 of his caretaker governments as labor/social policy minister. The Donev government shows a distinct lack of Harvard alumni (although there are quite a few US graduates), but the caretakers seem to fall in 3 categories:
- token ministers for the less relevant ministries from all parliamentary parties sans GERB and Vazrazhdane/the nationalist spectrum
- BSP inner opposition to Ninova figures
- Radev advisers and loyalists

However, this latter group, of which Donev is most definitely a part, may very well form a Radev-ite party before too long. This post is long enough as it is and I'm not sure if there is any interest, but Radev seems to me to be heading on a collision course not just with GERB and/or Ninova, but with the entire Bulgarian political system of the past 20-odd years. It would be fascinating to see if and how the system will defend itself (as alluded to earlier). I'd guess this fight will be postponed until after the 2022 election, since Radev has been making painstaking efforts to disassociate himself from Yanev's BV. But if Radev wants to avoid the fate of 4 of the 5 former Bulgarian presidents who flopped miserably in their post-presidential party leaderships, he'll need to act soon-ish.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #205 on: August 09, 2022, 06:38:31 AM »

Bulgaria [handshake] Italy

Populist 'anti-corruption' party started by TV show personality that's been slumping in the polls pulls out of coalition of chaos forcing early elections in autumn 2022. sh**tshow ensues.
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Beagle
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« Reply #206 on: August 18, 2022, 06:59:07 AM »

Party registration deadline was yesterday. As widely expected, despite PP never explicitly ruling out DB's coalition overtures, the two will run separately. And so, the playing field will be much the same as it was 6 months ago:

- PP will run as a formal coalition between Volt and a local party-for-hire (their third coalition partner from 2021 left with most of their state subsidies), apparently the ITN renegades will be accommodated on the PP party lists;

- GERB-SDS, DPS, Vazrazhdane and, obviously, ITN-proper are running alone;

- BSP and DB are running more or less their usual coalitions, although it may be noted that the most ardent russophiles from the BSP constellation - ABV, the one time 'reformist leftist' project of ex-president Parvanov - have left/been removed and have endorsed the new BV project (see below);

- BV, like PP, failed to get their party legally registered on time, so will run as a formal coalition between аn Ataka-offshoot microparty, an astroturf-Greens microparty and a microparty that started as a split of split of the Agrarian Union that was a major force in pre-WWII Bulgaria, to the extent that its many post-1989 zombies could still command a couple of hundred thousand votes between them until the turn of the century. Anyway, this principled organization has in its 15 years of existence been in partnerships with: Lider, RZS, BSP, Bulgaria without Censorship, Reformist Bloc (2017 version), ISMV/ISNI, managing to snag a seat or two in 3 parliaments (with the partners in bold). If you aren't a committed Bulgarian politics watcher, most of these abbreviations will mean nothing to you, but that's not a bad thing. The 3 micro-parties combined could muster, at best, an MP and a half's worth in votes, so BV, by choice or not, will not have a sizable launch vehicle and their entry into parliament looks more doubtful by the day.

Like DB, VMRO were desperate for a coalition, but in their case the prospective partners didn't even matter - anyone (who could bring them into parliament) would do. However, they got rejected publicly, so they're going alone in the hope of getting 1%. Unlike 2021, there are no plausible paths for anyone outside of the 7 parliamentary parties and BV to pull a surprise entry into parliament, so the remaining 20 or so participants (including no less than 4 separate entities that once were part of ISMV/ISNI) are doing so only to qualify for the state subsidy for getting over that 1% hurdle (and to spite their erstwhile friends and coalition partners, of course). My best guess is that none of them will manage even that.

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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #207 on: August 18, 2022, 07:48:48 AM »

(their third coalition partner from 2021 left with most of their state subsidies)
lol, how much money would that be?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #208 on: August 19, 2022, 07:16:05 AM »

In lieu of actual news, I'd like to share a few jokes about our caretaker PM, whose rather rare and antiquated first name means 'pigeon' in Bulgarian, as you may have found out if you used online translators from Bulgarian news sources. Yes, 'flying rat'.

Oh, I'm sure he will get along well with the Slovenian PM then!
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Beagle
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« Reply #209 on: August 19, 2022, 01:13:36 PM »

Quite!
As a nod to the 2016 Slavi Trifonov-backed referendum (see 2016 Presidential election thread -  Electoral Rules Referendum Part 2: Electric Boogaloo), the state subsidy was reduced by a third back in 2017 - from 12 BGN per vote to 8 BGN for a calendar year. Given that the parliament sat for just over half an year, the total subsidy paid out came to something like 240k BGN (around half that in €), so we're not talking huge money here. I must also add that it was always the understanding that the microparty in question (one of the myriad Bulgarian Social Democratic parties) would receive more money than the rest, since unlike Volt and the third party, they do not have a MP elected. Still, it was rather a surprise that they chose to go into a no-hoper social democratic coalition for the 2022 election.
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Beagle
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« Reply #210 on: September 10, 2022, 04:38:32 PM »

3 weeks to go, but you wouldn't know it, given the complete lack of posters (a significant break with Bulgarian electoral tradition), of significant debate or of (credible) polling. Still, I thought I'd pop in with an update about the start of the campaign... and the elephant in the room, aka president Rumen Radev.

The thing is, Radev is either playing a very long and clever game... or he's completely lost the plot, and given the actions of his 'best and brightest' advisers in the caretaker government, I'm more inclined to agree with the latter. For unfathomable reasons Radev has completely burned his bridges to the PP-BSP-DB government, constantly finding reasons to fire broadsides at their management of the economy (especially gas supply), foreign policy (especially Macedonia) and lack of tangible results. The caretakers are, obviously, trying to toe that line and undo as much as possible within their limited capabilities. In recent weeks, Radev has also taken to concern trolling the EU support for Ukraine, 'just asking questions' about how Europe is going to get heat and energy during the winter and is it right for the EU Commission to interfere in the free market for ideological reasons etc.

Now, I obviously disagree with Radev. But the thing that perplexes me is, he's cruising towards impeachment and for what? Because each and every of his statements/policies may be popular - although the Donev government are only the second deeply unpopular caretakers in modern Bulgarian history, according to polling - but the parties that espouse them are emphatically not. For various reasons, of the 4 parties that supported his reelection (PP, BSP, ITN, ISNI) Radev only has the support of ITN now (see below) and has given ITN some love back, ie appointing their hapless FM in the Petkov government as deputy defense minister (which she is much more qualified for anyway). But even in the unlikely event that ITN makes into parliament, they + BV + Vazrazhdane under any plausible scenario will not come close to 1/3 of the seats in parliament. GERB, PP, DPS, BSP and DB, who will certainly have more than 160 seats in parliament combined, all have reasons for deposing Radev - especially now, after Radev appointed Ninova's chief intraparty opponent to his government, it is expected that there will be no Radev-ite faction within the BSP parliamentary group. So, the math is brutal against him, and I simply don't see what his thinking or short-term goal is. Long-term it is clear by now that he wants to either take over or, more likely, supplant the BSP, but others have tried before and failed and they were much more popular than Radev is now + they didn't have impeachment looming over them.

As to the parties (listed below in predicted order), in a weird coincidence all 4 of PP, Vazrazhdane, ITN and BV had the right-hand-woman* to their party leaders depart the party and sit out the election.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



GERB last election: 22.7% are running around promising a return to the good old days, prosperity and stability, but they have run into the reality that Boyko Borisov is both their best asset and their worst curse. Sure, around 1 in 4 Bulgarians are fans, but the other 3 absolutely detest him. In an year and a half since they lost power, GERB have failed to (re-)gain any support worth mentioning and, while they will almost certainly be the largest party after the election (by default) with 24% or so, there is no appetite for a Borisov return anywhere outside hardcore GERB partisans.
Red lines: currently, while expressing a preference for partnership with DB, they have only explicitly ruled out DPS as a post-election partner, but this strikes most as posturing; while no cordon sanitaire against Vazrazhdane is in place, the 'nationalists' are making themselves unavailable by absurd demands, and a GERB-BSP will be a suicide pact, while working with DPS is what they have been doing for at least 6 years now.

PP last election: 25.7%- obviously no longer seen as Radev's party or the fresh new faces, they are polling exactly where they were before the shock result of the November '21 election, so they are hopeful of a reprise. Immediately after the fall of the Petkov government, they had something of a sympathy rebound, but the two most recent credible polls place them quite a bit behind GERB - in the 17-18% range.
Red lines: PP are rather adamant that they want a continuation of their coalition with BSP and DB, ruling out any cooperation with GERB, DPS, Vazrazhdane and - especially - ITN, should they make it.

Vazrazhdane last election: 4.7% - I'm going out on a limb (and rather hoping to jinx them) by placing them 3rd; all credible polls show them behind DPS, some - even behind BSP and/or DB. Given their supporters' demeanor, I don't think there is going to be much of shy Tory factor in polling - almost all are loud and proud Putinist/anti-vaxxer... eh, you know the type. Rather, I think what the Vazrazhdane problem is that their supporters are the least trustful in electoral democracy, and thus least likely to turn out + the fact that the Vazrazhdane leader is so obviously a grifter. So, while in an election where every Bulgarian over 18 would somehow be compelled to vote, Vazrazhdane could very well reach 20% in support, I think they will get around 12-13% - which is still a rather significant improvement over their polling around 8-10%.
Red lines: everyone

DPS last election: 13.0%- currently on a 'unity' trip, they are campaigning for a broad coalition between the 'Euro-atlantic' bloc (them + GERB, PP, DB). Given how toxic DPS are, I cannot discount the possibility that the goal is to make 'Euro-atlantic' into a dirty word, akin to the 'smartbeautiful' perjorative. Still oligarchic and kleptocratic, they no longer control as much of the media as they used to, but remain in their usual 10-12% range, possibly more if they mobilize their Turkish vote again (but the other parties are better prepared this time).
Red lines: as stated above

BSP - last election: 10.2% BSP and DB stump me by ostensibly increasing their polling numbers while being the junior partners in a coalition of chaos. Back in November '21, there was a clear and obvious wave towards PP from all 'protest parties' at the last minute, so it is natural for some of their supporters to flow back. The only reason for the increase otherwise is unusually engaged retirees, who are grateful for the numerous pension increases under the former government that were pushed through by BSP (in 6 months the pensions outlay increased almost precisely as much as it did in 12 years of GERB rule) - but PP took full credit for those increases and, naturally, anybody pleased with the last government is likelier to vote PP than the two smaller parties. Ninova also turned a blind eye to arms exports for Ukraine (against substantial kickbacks, of course), which cannot have endeared her to hardcore Socialists. So I am betting that this is a polling bounce that will not be replicated in the actual votes (same as happened in July and November '21) and instead of the 11-12% where BSP are polling, they will come under 10%, possibly significantly so.
Red lines: while Ninova has mooted an intraparty referendum on potential coalition partners (she has done that 4-5 times before, only 1 was ever held: for the presidential election '16, which elected Radev), BSP are officially running on a continuation of PP-BSP-DB. Cooperation with GERB and DPS is ruled out, but that promise isn't worth all that much.

DB - last election: 6.4% See above. The narrative for the DB increase is that the unusually engaged pro-Westerners are grateful for the expulsion of Russian diplomats and other support for Ukraine, but the counter-narrative is how DB supported the former government spending like a drunken sailor (money which Bulgaria emphatically does not have) + co-habiting with the (former) Communists. Polling gives them 7 to 9%, my guess is the result will be a percent or two lower than that, but it is not completely implausible for DB to fall below the 4% hurdle in a nightmare scenario.
Red lines: The other potential narrative why DB show an increase is that they were the ex-ruling party that was by far the most interested in avoiding early elections. So while the official line is, again, PP-BSP-DB, there may be some GERB-curiosity.

BV - last election: NA BV have positioned themselves on sort of BSP ground (part of the reason why I think BSP are overpolling currently), running on a mix of social conservatism, populism, pro-Russian stance (but, as stated earlier, not loud-and-proud Putinism, just 'we all know Russia will win, let's not anger them') and absolute lack of any political fireworks. Drab candidates (the few that have electoral experience come from the nationalist spectrum, ITN and BSP) are running a drab campaign, basically relying entirely on the party leader's residual popularity from his days as caretaker PM to drag them over the line. My feeling is that the only reason that BV have a chance of getting in parliament, if only just, is a sizable cohort of Bulgarian voters with an admirable commitment to democracy and a deplorable lack of common sense*. BV are polling just over the cusp of 4%, my guess is they will be just under on 2 October.
Red lines: None. But nobody is really keen on working with Yanev, he will just be indispensable in case PP-BSP-DB want to continue their coalition, but not have the votes (as is almost certain).

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



ITN - last election: 9.5% In a last throw of the dice, ITN have proclaimed that the Bulgarian constitutional model is hopelessly out of date, the country should switch to a Presidential republic and that ITN are the only possibility for that to happen. Cue the gunshot meme - after destroying the last 3 parliaments, ITN are now saying 'Why would parliamentarism do this'. Slavi Trifonov, wouldn't you know it, called for a referendum, except that the present constitution explicitly rules referendums as a way to change the country governance. So now ITN are saying that the wording of the referendum would be such as to force the next parliament to dissolve itself and call a constitutional assembly. Which is also unconstitutional, but what's a little unconstitutionality with ITN. If it wasn't for Radev's tacit support, ITN would be completely doomed, now they are just regularly doomed - polling shows them just under the threshold, but almost everybody who had any sort of profile except the 'scriptwriters' and the ex-chairwoman of parliament has left the sinking ship, so I'd expect them to remain comfortably under 4% at the end.
Red lines: everyone

No other party is emerging as anything more than a footnote in the election.
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Beagle
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« Reply #211 on: October 01, 2022, 08:11:09 AM »

Ok, so this is tomorrow, I will be manning a polling station again (a different one this time, this one is probably in the top10 DB precincts overall in the country, so I don't expect many issues).

I realize international interest is middling. Of all the 'B' elections on 2 October, the Bulgarian one is by far the least consequential. Even in a 'black swan' event, the consensus on the issues that matter most to foreign observers is so broad that there is absolutely zero chance for a pivot. And, in any event, everybody expects a round 5 some time in the spring, or at the latest at the same time as the scheduled local elections an year from now.

The most realistic chance to avoid round 5 - the prospect of an 'Euro-Atlantic' coalition of GERB-PP-DPS-DB - was torpedoed a few days ago, when the PP co-leader gave the game away, saying something along the lines of 'Foreign [read American] emissaries offered us GERB and/or DPS cooperation to prevent new elections if we were willing to compromise on our corruption fight'. To sum it up, PP are adamant that there will not be any partnership with GERB or DPS under any circumstances and will actively seek new elections rather than accept any alternative to the PP-BSP-DB arrangement. So, given that Vazrazhdane are certain to at least double their seats, there is no chance for any stable configuration among natural allies, especially if ITN are also a part of parliament.

There is little point in discussing the campaign, I will just record the perceived movement over the past month or so.

GERB - upward trend; their dominance at the local level is really paying off, as their turnout machines are much more important when the participation levels are falling off a cliff.

PP - downward; PP, at least to some degree, have positioned themselves as the party which stands for putting Boyko Borisov in prison, but not much else.

DPS - upward; and the pollsters aren't recognizing the increased number of polling stations in Turkey, I think they may be well positioned to get more than 40 MPs.

Vazrazhdane - upward; I personally think it is likelier that the pollsters were undercounting their vote earlier and now it has moved to a more realistic 12-14% range; there are quite a few pundits that claim that V will be the major surprise of the election and could even become the 2nd largest party.

BSP - downward; much to noone's surprise, Ninova's attempts to straddle a number of issues, most importantly Ukraine, are not winning any of the sides over;

DB - slightly upward; almost entirely from PP loanee voters coming back to the roost;

ITN - upward; to the extent that if only one of ITN/BV makes it in, I'd wager it'd be ITN. Radev's tacit support is paying off for them, but also they are tapping into the general discontent with the Bulgarian elites, so maybe people are voting for them precisely because they don't want a stable government.

BV - downward. I certainly hope it will be enough to keep them out of parliament, especially given that their diaspora vote will be minuscule. We'll see soon enough, I guess.

My guess for tomorrow:
GERB -27%
PP - 15%
DPS - 15%
Vazrazdhane - 14%
BSP - 8%
DB - 7%
ITN - 4% (above the threshold)
BV - 3%
Others - 7% combined

If anybody has any questions before the event, I'd be happy to answer tonight.
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GMantis
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« Reply #212 on: October 02, 2022, 11:31:15 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2022, 11:43:37 AM by GMantis »

Unfortunately I didn't manage to keep my promise about the maps, only finishing the election maps of last year's parliamentary election after the current election started. You can see them here.


Ok, so this is tomorrow, I will be manning a polling station again (a different one this time, this one is probably in the top10 DB precincts overall in the country, so I don't expect many issues).

I realize international interest is middling. Of all the 'B' elections on 2 October, the Bulgarian one is by far the least consequential. Even in a 'black swan' event, the consensus on the issues that matter most to foreign observers is so broad that there is absolutely zero chance for a pivot. And, in any event, everybody expects a round 5 some time in the spring, or at the latest at the same time as the scheduled local elections an year from now.

The most realistic chance to avoid round 5 - the prospect of an 'Euro-Atlantic' coalition of GERB-PP-DPS-DB - was torpedoed a few days ago, when the PP co-leader gave the game away, saying something along the lines of 'Foreign [read American] emissaries offered us GERB and/or DPS cooperation to prevent new elections if we were willing to compromise on our corruption fight'. To sum it up, PP are adamant that there will not be any partnership with GERB or DPS under any circumstances and will actively seek new elections rather than accept any alternative to the PP-BSP-DB arrangement. So, given that Vazrazhdane are certain to at least double their seats, there is no chance for any stable configuration among natural allies, especially if ITN are also a part of parliament.

There is little point in discussing the campaign, I will just record the perceived movement over the past month or so.

GERB - upward trend; their dominance at the local level is really paying off, as their turnout machines are much more important when the participation levels are falling off a cliff.

PP - downward; PP, at least to some degree, have positioned themselves as the party which stands for putting Boyko Borisov in prison, but not much else.

DPS - upward; and the pollsters aren't recognizing the increased number of polling stations in Turkey, I think they may be well positioned to get more than 40 MPs.

Vazrazhdane - upward; I personally think it is likelier that the pollsters were undercounting their vote earlier and now it has moved to a more realistic 12-14% range; there are quite a few pundits that claim that V will be the major surprise of the election and could even become the 2nd largest party.

BSP - downward; much to noone's surprise, Ninova's attempts to straddle a number of issues, most importantly Ukraine, are not winning any of the sides over;

DB - slightly upward; almost entirely from PP loanee voters coming back to the roost;

ITN - upward; to the extent that if only one of ITN/BV makes it in, I'd wager it'd be ITN. Radev's tacit support is paying off for them, but also they are tapping into the general discontent with the Bulgarian elites, so maybe people are voting for them precisely because they don't want a stable government.

BV - downward. I certainly hope it will be enough to keep them out of parliament, especially given that their diaspora vote will be minuscule. We'll see soon enough, I guess.

My guess for tomorrow:
GERB -27%
PP - 15%
DPS - 15%
Vazrazdhane - 14%
BSP - 8%
DB - 7%
ITN - 4% (above the threshold)
BV - 3%
Others - 7% combined

If anybody has any questions before the event, I'd be happy to answer tonight.
Excellent analysis as always. I don't really have anything to add, except that I'm not entirely convinced that a GERB-PP coalition could not yet be formed, since in the last twenty years no has ever lost any bet by overestimating the influence of the "foreign emissaries"...

3 weeks to go, but you wouldn't know it, given the complete lack of posters (a significant break with Bulgarian electoral tradition), of significant debate or of (credible) polling.
Most parties seemed to have moved their entire campaign online, which from the environmental point of view is a great development even if it gets annoying after a while to wait until you can skip over the incessant election adds.
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« Reply #213 on: October 02, 2022, 12:08:11 PM »

First exit poll results (expected number of MPs in brackets):

GERB: 25.5% (67)
PP: 18.4% (48)
DPS: 12.6% (33)
BSP: 11.2% (30)
Revival: 10.4% (27)
DB: 9% (24)
ITN: 4.2% (11)
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« Reply #214 on: October 02, 2022, 12:30:06 PM »

Looks like Revival is the main gainer which seems to match pre-election polls.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #215 on: October 02, 2022, 01:42:00 PM »

A complete parallel count of the votes has been released:

GERB: 23.5% (64)
PP: 19.5% (52)
DPS: 15.2% (41)
Revival: 10% (27)
BSP: 8.9% (24)
DB: 7% (19)
BV: 4.7% (13)

ITN barely misses the threshold at 3.8%.
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Beagle
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« Reply #216 on: October 02, 2022, 04:10:31 PM »

Unstructured thoughts, based on my experiences today and on the 24% or so official results that are in already. It must be said that the 24 are mostly from the smaller rural-ish provinces, where PP were not expected to be strong, but - as last November - there was a flow towards them from their partners at the last minute, so the current results are 25% GERB to 22% PP.

- GERB were expecting a much clearer win, although they are also relieved since there is no real burden on them to form a government now;

- In a reprise from the July '21 vote, PP want to play the ITN 'the more opposition-er, the better' game; they theatrically conceded the election to GERB and asked them to form a stable government with DPS for the benefit of the country. As mentioned above, the results that are actually in show a potential significant increase compared to the exit poll;

- DPS are yet to record almost any votes from Turkey, so-o... they are definitely in 3rd, above 40 seats in parliament... and I can see a purely theoretical scenario in which they and GERB could be able to vote in a government with a strategic abstention by any of the other parties. I'd say a coalition GERB-DPS-BV coalition could be conceivable, but realistically an increase in the DPS vote from abroad would very likely push BV out;

Vazrazhdane don't seem to be having the swing towards them the late polls showed, but they too expect an increase from the overseas vote;

BSP were optimistic, but they recorded yet another decrease in MPs, raw votes and percentage. Kind of proud of this call I made, since it was nowhere to be seen in the pre-election polling (or even in the leaked exit polls for most of the day);

DB did record an increase, but a rather smaller one than expected. People did seem to have chosen PP at the last minute again;

BV - I was quite surprised to see BV draw even with Vazrazhdane in 'my' polling station, so their message may have resonated with more people than I expected. I still think they will decrease from their present 5.2% because they lack any votes abroad, but they are almost certain to make it;

ITN - not yet quite dead, there is a slight chance they will pass the threshold, but I'd bet against it;

Otherwise - the deadliest of deadlocks. As expected.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #217 on: October 02, 2022, 04:33:32 PM »

DPS are yet to record almost any votes from Turkey, so-o... they are definitely in 3rd, above 40 seats in parliament... and I can see a purely theoretical scenario in which they and GERB could be able to vote in a government with a strategic abstention by any of the other parties. I'd say a coalition GERB-DPS-BV coalition could be conceivable, but realistically an increase in the DPS vote from abroad would very likely push BV out;
I don't see at all how this could be viable. There are more unlikely coalitions possible, but this one is not far behind. It seems as plausible as the suggested GERB-DPS minority government: that is, not at all.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #218 on: October 02, 2022, 05:10:09 PM »

What are the differences between Revival and BV?
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Beagle
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« Reply #219 on: October 03, 2022, 12:34:47 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 02:21:00 AM by Beagle »

Surprisingly, we already have the final results (bar 20 or so precincts in Bulgaria and 10-15k votes from the Western hemisphere - given the American Bulgarians propensity for Trumpism, there will not be the pro-'Old Right' influx from the US that was usual before 2016).

In other news from abroad, with just 40 thousand votes, despite having 44 more polling stations, DPS have definitely kept their powder dry in Turkey. As a reminder, last November there were over 90 thousand DPS votes in Turkey. The few dozen DB activists who went to observe and prevent the abuses of the previous vote were definitely not why DPS didn't put in an effort, I imagine it is the expectation that this election is another interim one, with another to come soon.

As to the actual results (note, these are my own back of the envelope seat calculations, they are bound to change by a seat or two):

GERB - 25.4% (+2.7%) - 67 (+8)
PP - 20.2% (-5.5%) - 53 (-14)
DPS - 13.6% (+0.7%) - 36 (+2)
Vazrazhdane - 10.2% (+5.3%) - 27 (+14)
BSP - 9.3% (-0.9%) - 25 (-1)
DB - 7.5% (+1.1%) - 20 (+4)
BV - 4.6% (new) - 12
________________________________
ITN - 3.7% - 0 (-25)

Now we come to the posturing phase (except for BV, who announced that they are available for any configuration). There is a slight prospect of a GERB-DPS-DB partnership - and I'm not saying DB are above it - but, simply put, nobody expects this parliament to last, so there is nothing in it for DB. By far the likeliest outcome is a couple of months of flailing, followed by yet another caretaker government appointed by President Radev and round 5 in the early spring.



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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #220 on: October 03, 2022, 02:19:26 AM »

Is there a turnout estimate yet? Sorry, I forget if this is easily found somewhere else.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #221 on: October 03, 2022, 02:42:28 AM »

Is there a turnout estimate yet? Sorry, I forget if this is easily found somewhere else.
On kapital.bg I’m reading 37.8%.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #222 on: October 03, 2022, 03:04:06 AM »

Apologies for the ignorant questions, but what are the main parties' positions on military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, and what does that mean for the likely future government?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #223 on: October 03, 2022, 05:41:30 AM »

What has happened of ISNI? Did it disband or did it simply fail to recover from not entering the previous Parliament? And if the latter, is it about to disband now?
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Beagle
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« Reply #224 on: October 03, 2022, 07:35:17 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2022, 07:49:55 AM by Beagle »

What are the differences between Revival and BV?

This was already discussed, albeit flippantly:

what the differences between v and that new party
...

My earlier statement is very much still valid:
Attempts such as the above to place the parties on the left-right/liberal-conservative axis are well-intentioned, but quite simply put, virtually all parties today are deeply personalist, they stand for whatever the party leader has claimed today - even though it may be the complete opposite of what the leader said yesterday

As of today, the difference is that while Kostadinov is/acts* an loud-and-proud Putinist, Yanev's position is that morally Russia is in the wrong, but it will inevitably win and it only prolongs the agony to support Ukraine, so the sooner things get back to 'normal', the better.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



I was hoping that BV would fade away and I wouldn't need to give any more detail. My cursory impressions of Yanev are that he is careful not to alarm anyone, while for Vazrazhdane - obviously - the alarm is the point. And while Yanev is commonly presented as pro-Russian, he has always insisted that Bulgaria's NATO and EU membership are non-negotiable and we just need to side with PiS and the like to steer the Union towards less focus on social issues, human rights and 'rule of law'. In a recent interview he proclaimed that the Bulgarian society is traditionally communitarian and deplored the liberal individualism coming from the West. His one outlandish proposal was that the parliamentarians should be subjected to an accountability board - composed of academics, Bulgarian Orthodox Church bishops, labor union leaders etc. - who would evaluate and in limited circumstances even expel MPs who violate their oath of office.

But as I mentioned earlier, the fact that BV are in parliament today has little to do with their positions, but with the cohort with admirable commitment to democracy and deplorable lack of common sense. Since they were the only actual 'newcomer' party, they managed to barely scrape in.

Is there a turnout estimate yet? Sorry, I forget if this is easily found somewhere else.
On kapital.bg I’m reading 37.8%.
Yeah. Although today the results of the 2021 census came out and apparently there are a 100 thousand more voters than actual people living in Bulgaria, so turnout % can give a rather false impression. Based on 'my' polling station, turnout was down to the levels of the presidential election 2nd round last year - very low, but not catastrophically so.

Apologies for the ignorant questions, but what are the main parties' positions on military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, and what does that mean for the likely future government?

The question isn't at all ignorant, but it's difficult to answer in light of the huge difference between public positions and actions for most Bulgarian political actors. You must bear in mind that the failure of the Bulgarian armament industry to timely retool from Soviet machinery now makes us a huge part of the 'Arsenal of the Free World'. So the Bulgarian arms plants are now running 24/7 to supply Ukraine with 152 mm shells etc. and even the income that actually reaches the state budget is in the billions of Euros, while vast amounts have been available for kickbacks, sales commissions and other forms of corruption.
So in actual practice, next to nobody is against the present form of pro-Ukrainian help: both new and old equipment is sold to various private entities that re-sell it to (mostly) Polish and American brokers with place of delivery in Rzeszow or Romania. Quite a lot makes its way to Ukraine through the black market. But the most important position, of course, is the one of President Radev, who has unequivocally stated that Bulgaria cannot provide official military aid because it would weaken the already depleted Bulgarian armed forces - and also to avoid making Bulgaria a side in the war, which is an excuse that seems increasingly ludicrous. But Radev and his caretakers have been quite OK with the arrangement described above.

As to the parties, while there are some minute differences between GERB, DPS and DB, they are all declaredly pro-military aid and pro-Russian sanctions. But I think there are too many intangibles for them to form a government together.

PP are very much anti-Russian, but a bit more reluctant to send meaningful military aid for much the same reasons as Radev.

BSP leader Ninova had promised that her Socialist party would leave the government if one Bulgarian bullet reached Ukraine... but then she was given direct control over the state owned arms plants and billions of Bulgarian bullets did reach Ukraine under the above arrangement. Since the BSP electorate is notoriously pro-Russian, Ninova also has a whole spiel opposing Russian sanctions, including threatening to leave the Party of European Socialists over that and gay marriage/wokeism. But this is little more than noise.

Vazrazhdane are anti-military aid and anti-Russian sanctions. Duh. It may be worth noting, though, that Vazrazhdane campaigned on 'strict neutrality', not on teaming up with Russia, and in any event, they were clearly less than comfortable discussing the Russian actions, generally trying to make the story about the actual 'Empire of Evil' - the US - and the hypocrisy of the West. We had no less than 6 micro-parties* campaigning on an actual pro-Russian stance that combined for just over 1%. Aside: one of the microparties in the nationalist spectrum, on the other hand, decided to go ultra pro-Ukrainian, with the party leader campaigning in Azov batallion gear - they got 0.07% of the vote and finished 3rd from last.

BV leader Yanev said that it would prolong the agony to send military aid to Ukraine, and is another in the 'sanctions hurt us more then they hurt them' camp. However, as stated earlier, he is rather malleable.

Another thing:My musings about Radev's impeachment etc. are no longer valid. Over the course of the past few weeks, PP have taken a radically conciliatory course towards him, which may or may not have something to do with the fact that Radev and his caretaker government have also been much less vocally pro-Russian in the past few weeks (they have never been that much pro-Russian in actual practice).
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