🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
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  🇧🇬 Bulgarian elections megathread (next up: European and National (?) Parliament 09 June 2024)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #150 on: August 10, 2021, 08:37:18 AM »

And question 3 - could the BSP go any lower or have they bottomed out now?
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Beagle
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« Reply #151 on: August 10, 2021, 10:10:06 AM »

Good questions!

I have two questions -

1. How likely is it for the early election to change the political scene in a meaningful way and make the formation of a political government possible? I know a fourth election is a no-no and some technocratic, national unity or minority govt would emerge if the scene stays the same but will the new election make the formation any easier?

Apart from some far-fetched scenarios, the only way I see for a radical transformation is if Radev himself adopts a party (it is too late procedurally to form an entirely new party of his own) and throws his entire political weight behind it. He is the most popular politician in the country right now, and, reading the other parties messages, he could potentially put together a coalition of the 'change' parties with or without BSP (or factions of BSP).  

Of course, this would give credence to the already mentioned GERB allegations that all non-status-quo parties are Machiavellian mastermind Radev's minions and that he is performing a very elaborate hidden coup, intending to seize all power for himself and his Russian benefactors. Meh... we'll get there when we get there, I guess.

A new "Great Bulgaria" nationalistic project is likely to happen in time for the next election, but I doubt it will make much of an electoral wave. I am mostly mentioning it because it is helmed by boxer Kubrat Pulev. Unlike his one time opponent and presumptive role model Klitschko, though, Pulev has never been that good of a boxer and I want to take this opportunity to share some of my favorite wisecracks after one of his famous bouts: "Notice how Pulev wisely used his face to defend against Joshua's punches" and "Trying to shatter an opponent's fist with the face is a traditional strategy in Bulgaria".

2. Radev is probably the frontrunner for re-election, but which parties will endorse him, and will ITN or DB run someone against him? Oh, and also, will Borisov run? He seems smarter than that but Wikipedia says he is the potential GERB candidate.

As of today, Radev is endorsed by ITN and ISNI. Ninova is twisting herself into a pretzel, since she has a personal conflict with Radev and would love nothing more than to see him defeated (ironic, since his 2016 victory secured her leadership position), but he is still very popular with the BSP base and the party leadership issued some half-hearted statement of support after the April election, where the underwhelming result was attributed in no small part to Ninova's conflict with Radev. There are some grumblings among the most ardent Russophiles, since Radev has taken a very active role in some initiatives that are viewed as anti-Russian, but under the circumstances, I can't see BSP not supporting Radev officially. DB, well, I realize I'm speaking for my faction and that there still are some anti-communists within the DB coalition to whom support for a red is anathema, but while DB is certainly running a candidate on its own, there is a recognition that Radev is more electable than anyone more palatable and more palatable than anyone more electable.

GERB are, obviously, Radev's biggest opponents, but Borisov has said at least half a dozen times in the past year that he's not going to run himself. Pre-election polling may not be up to scratch in Bulgaria, but from what we know, Borisov running will mobilize far more of his haters than wavering GERB supporters. The candidates I've seen mentioned as potential GERB contenders don't appear likely winners to me, but a lot can change in 3 months. DPS don't like Radev, but there is no benefit for them to actively oppose him if he is as strong as he appears today, so they may yet endorse him in the second round (if there is a second round, of course).

Of course, it is entirely possible that ITN will drop their endorsement and run Trifonov or another candidate of their own, especially if Radev appears vulnerable, but as of today, he is largely viewed as invincible. I will post a more detailed preview of the Presidential election when the time approaches.

And question 3 - could the BSP go any lower or have they bottomed out now?

I think that a potential Radev party can cut another 4-5% from BSP's support, otherwise they must surely be hitting rock bottom at 11-12%. There is an important caveat, though: we don't know who is coming out to vote in a 2 in 1 election. There is, for some unfathomable reason, a not insignificant segment of the electorate who do not come out to vote in legislative elections, but want to vote on a person. It is possible that the Presidential election drives turnout up and I, at least, have no idea who would benefit or lose as of today.
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Beagle
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« Reply #152 on: August 27, 2021, 02:47:13 PM »

I'm sure that nobody relies on this thread for up-to-the minute info, this is far from breaking news, but Bulgaria is definitely heading back to the polls again:


Technically, the possibility still exists that this parliament forms a government on the third try - President Radev is entitled to choose any one of the other parties, the political reality is that he's going to pick DB or BSP. BSP have promised to nominate the (very popular) caretaker cabinet without any changes - including the DB friendly ministers - but both GERB and ITN are on the record that they will vote against a continuation of the current government.

President Radev gave the third mandate to BSP. BSP have walked back their statement that they will nominate the caretaker government and invited all non-GERB and DPS parties for discussions about the makeup and program of the government, but with DB going on record that they cannot support a BSP-led government, it is a hopeless endeavor. There is an unsavory contest at the moment between the two biggest parliamentary parties - ITN and GERB - about who is more opposition-er; apparently being in opposition is what all the cool kids are doing. The result is a Mexican standoff where parliament is at a standstill, we can only hope that in its brief remaining lifetime it will at least set the date for the presidential election and pass a budget amendment. BSP, strictly speaking, don't have a constitutional deadline to nominate a PM candidate and it is expected that they will prolong the parliament lifetime by a week or two, but the assumption is that they will pull the plug once the budget amendment is passed sometime in early September.

And yes, I hope you don't rely on this thread for updates, because if I did update it more often, it would be with profoundly stupid stuff. Like, for instance, the current scandal about the citizenship of the informal leader of the Harvard crew in the caretaker government: he emigrated with his parents to Canada as a young child and had acquired Canadian citizenship. As Bulgarian law bans holders of dual citizenship from running for high office, once he agreed to take part in the caretaker government, he took steps to renounce the Canadian citizenship - but he only received notice that this has taken effect a week ago. The case is in the Constitutional court, but it is pretty obvious that his appointment was unconstitutional. The GERB/DPS-friendly press tried to make much hay of it, but the reason I'm raising this up at all is what transpired at a meeting the President called with the leaders of parliamentary groups. DPS leader Karadayi demanded that the minister be removed from the meeting, as he may be betraying Bulgarian state secrets to [checks notes] Canada*. Radev took this opportunity to pounce on Karadyi's statement when he was with Erdogan (see June 15 entry above) and to question his allegiance to motherland Bulgaria.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Anyway, the end effect is that the caretaker government are as popular as ever. Rumors abound that the Harvard crew are looking at forming their own party, which may or may not enjoy Radev's support and may or may not partner up with DB. But it is far too late in the day to formally form a party to take part in the upcoming election...

... or is it? Apparently the parties are looking at November 7 or November 14 as the date of the first round of the Presidential election. Radev has indicated his displeasure at a 2 in 1 election, but it would be monumentally stupid to call the voters to the polls on three consecutive Sundays. For cost reasons alone, it is almost certain that the parliamentary election will be on the same date as either the first or the second round of the presidential election - and given that it will be at or near the latest possible date, it may give a small window of opportunity for a new party to be formed.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Under the circumstances, it is not surprising that polling indicates a rather substantial exodus from ITN - perhaps 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 ITN voters in July are now indicating they plan to vote for someone else. With the usual caveats about Bulgarian pre-election polling, about 3 in 10 former ITN voters are going for GERB or DB, 2 in 10 are (returning to) BSP and 1 in 10 are going nationalist or not voting. So currently the polls indicate GERB threading water compared to July with 21%; DB, ITN and BSP in a neck-and-neck race for 2nd at around 16% (with a slight advantage to DB under the turnout model of our second best pollster) and DPS just behind (if you consider the margin of error) at 11%. ISNI are teetering precariously close to the threshold at 4% and maybe the russophilic, nationalistic Vazrazhdane will actually make it in this time since they are almost precisely at 4%.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #153 on: August 31, 2021, 10:31:50 PM »

Rooting for v!
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Beagle
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« Reply #154 on: September 09, 2021, 08:06:05 AM »

I am fed up with waiting for President Radev to officially declare that he is doing the only sensible thing and schedule the 2-in-1:

Parliamentary and 1st round presidential election on 14 November, with the second round of the presidentials (if needed) on 21 November

The presidential election has been fixed already; Radev has hemmed and hawed (consulting with the electoral commission, waiting for confirmation that the voting machines can handle the double election etc) about the parliamentary date. But with the lame-duck parliament barely functioning*, it will be a spectacular own goal to prolong its miserable existence in order to have the parliamentary election after the presidential one, or even to have it coincide with the 2nd round on Nov 21. He could, but IMO it will put him in more danger of losing than his stated fear that partisanship will overwhelm his own 'unity' candidacy in a 2-in-1 election. So I'm declaring that the double election will be on 14 November, I will edit if needed.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



As to the electoral lay of the land, I must expand on a few things in my previous post:

- Borisov may prove me spectacularly wrong (again) and run for President himself, as he is now saying that a 2-in-1 election requires a partisan GERB vote-getter, otherwise he would have nominated a non-partisan 'healer' type of candidate. We should know soon enough who GERB will nominate, as well as if there is going to be any other candidate of significance (looking quite unlikely at the moment).

- Radev, of course unofficially, is supporting the new political project of the Harvard crew. Recently he reassured 'the left-thinking people of Bulgaria' that even though others may have betrayed them (a not so subtle attack on BSP, or at least its present leadership), he will never do so, and the new party is almost certainly going to go for at least a centrist if not a moderately left-wing profile, alongside its modernizing, reformist image. A BSP deputy leader** suggested that emissaries have been trying to get local BSP organizations to defect en masse.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


It is becoming more improbable by the day, however, that the new party will take part in its own name in the upcoming election. Even if they manage the logistics, even a completely frivolous lawsuit will inevitably delay the formation beyond the deadline for registration. A huge number of parties are ready to serve as launch vehicles for the project by letting it run under its registration (and some political parasites have already declared their allegiance to it), but it would kind of be self-defeating for ostensibly 'new faces' to run under old banners.

- there is plenty of time until the election, but ISNI (previously known as IS!MV!) are almost certainly out of the next parliament, although many, if not all, components of their coalition may still make it in some form. I doubt there is enough interest to expand on the number of reasons why, but it is probably enough to say that this movement has outlived its purpose.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


 
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« Reply #155 on: September 09, 2021, 08:39:03 AM »

- there is plenty of time until the election, but ISNI (previously known as IS!MV!) are almost certainly out of the next parliament, although many, if not all, components of their coalition may still make it in some form. I doubt there is enough interest to expand on the number of reasons why, but it is probably enough to say that this movement has outlived its purpose.
I, for one, would definitely be interested. Is it just to do with DB being more credible and Manolova being a highly-strung personality?
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Beagle
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« Reply #156 on: September 21, 2021, 12:35:17 PM »

This effortpost has been in the drafts for a while now, but you'll still see it tapering off quite a bit towards the end - there's so little time and so much stupid. Apologies to Heat for not answering his question earlier.

President Radev surprised the cognoscenti (and more than a few lobbyists) by naming a virtually unchanged caretaker government for the next 2 (eh, we'll see about that...) months. The only departures were the Harvard crew, who left to prepare their foray in electoral politics [see below] - but one of their replacements is another Harvard alumnus anyway; as well as the Transportation minister, who was the cabinet member closest to DPS and who notably failed to explain a €200 million giveaway to the DPS honorary leader Ahmed Dogan that happened under his watch prior to his appointment as caretaker minister. The new transportation minister was the old one's best man at his wedding, though, and is also quite close to DPS.

Oh, and obviously the date of the parliamentary election is confirmed - 14 November, same as the first round of the presidential election.

With that, I wanted to give you an overview over the parties' fortunes at the start of the 2-in-1 campaign in the order of the vote share I expect each would get if the vote was held today, which does not necessarily match the pollsters' view. Two months being an eternity in politics, this is obviously not a final prediction, but don't expect me to be very active re: updates, except for a preview of the presidential election once the candidates are clear (this can be as late as 14 October, which is registration deadline day)

GERB: (April: 25.8%; July: 23.2%)
Parliament: With every passing day, the outrages of the Borisov III government pass more into memory and there is little reason to expect that any GERB voters in July will switch their votes in November, while more than a few stray sheep will return, having observed the chaos of the previous parliament. I expect them to take 25%, ± 3%, but unless something radically changes, I don't see any way for them to govern after the election.
President: It would be wrong to suggest that the paranoid style is something new or peculiar to GERB only, but I really struggle to understand the histrionics against the Radev dictatorship.  GERB will explain at length to anyone who will listen how Radev has subverted the constitution, executed a silent coup and turned the virtually powerless Presidency into the command center for all three powers; all the while being a Russian plant and/or surrenderer of Bulgarian sovereignty to EU/US interests. We even have a Seth Rich story now*. GERB are now claiming the Presidential election is going to be #rigged and are kind of throwing in the towel, but will put up a candidate, who is apparently going to be male, well known and the polar opposite of Radev in every respect. Borisov has again rejected any notion that he will run himself and this time I really don't see him walking it back. Another notable refuser is former 1997-2002 President Petar Stoyanov. Candidate: TBA

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



ITN: (April: 17.4%; July: 23.8%)
Parliament: Polls show that the vast majority of people hold ITN responsible for the second failed parliament, despite their protestations that their fellow 'parties of the protest' betrayed them and the chance to form a minority government with BSP support. The voters they gained between April and July have left in droves, while the two proposed cabinets full of establishment figures and/or (alleged) criminals have worn off their novelty. As far as I can tell, they are now reverting to being antivax as their chief campaign cornerstone. Trifonov himself has not been seen in public since voting in July, but he's been posting vitriolic fb posts at suggestions from GERB and ISNI that he's unwell (spoiler alert: he's unwell). Predicted share: 15% ± 3%
President: Eh, there was a rumor that they were trying to get Radev to replace his VP with the ITN chairwoman of the last two parliaments, but even if they did try it, it went nowhere. In essence, they are trying to tie themselves to Radev's popularity and Radev is not refusing their support, even though it is pretty clear that neither party is exactly thrilled by their loveless coupling. Candidate: Rumen Radev

BSP: (April: 14.8%; July: 13.2%)
Parliament: As I'm writing this post, I don't know if and how many notable BSP people/organizations will depart for the new PP project [see below] - a couple BSP MPs were named as being on PP's wishlist. But unless more than a handful of the red barons defect, I don't see the new party having that much of an impact on BSP - to be voting for BSP nowadays, you're either a staunch Ninova supporter or a diehard 'red'; anything short of Radev outright campaigning against BSP is not going to cut much into their remaining support. Which is not to say that BSP are doing well, the only reason why I expect them to have a slight uptick in support is because of low information voters, who come out to support Radev and still consider him the BSP candidate, despite what I write below. Predicted share: 15% ± 3%
President: Ninova is fuming, as expected, at the formation of the new party and the attempted (?) steal of BSP organizations, supporters and MPs. As a result, despite the earlier half-hearted declaration of support for Radev's reelection, BSP has now opened the floor for nominations from the party's supporters and Ninova's cronies started attacking Radev for 'renominating the caretaker cabinet full of neoliberals' and for betraying the party that got him elected. Still, Radev has an approval rate close to 80% among BSP rank-and-file and no nomination process that is remotely free and fair will result in anything but support for his reelection. For that reason: Candidate: Rumen Radev

DPS: (April: 10.4%; July: 10.6%)
Parliament: Nothing to report, really. Predicted share: 11% ± 2%
b]President[/b]: DPS have now made it clear that they will oppose Radev's reelection. However, association with DPS will be the kiss of death for any candidate - for every vote they can provide, s/he will lose three from people who despise DPS. Their calculation, presumably, is that they can work behind the scenes and mobilize their supporters in secret for the 2nd round of the Presidentials - if there is a second round. Candidate: TBA

DB: (April: 9.3%; July: 12.5%)
Parliament: DB were practically begging the Harvard crew to join up, but, admittedly, their offer was quite meager - receiving safe MP seats was hardly enough for the ex-caretaker ministers. Polling shows that about 20 to 25% of DB voters in July are probable to likely PP voters in November - with two of those defectors, in all likelihood, being the two Harvard ministers themselves, since one of them is a DB-member-party-founder and the other formed a think thank with current DB leaders. I was expecting that one or two of the parties in the DB coalition might defect to the new project, though, and that hasn't happened, at least so far. With the expected shrinkage of support for PP once they announce their candidates and policies, I think that there is not going to be that much of a leakage. But DB were definitely on the upswing, probably in 2nd place, and now that growth has stalled.  Predicted share: 11% ± 2%
b]President[/b]: DB were ready to sit out the Presidential election if that is what it took to get the Harvard crew to join. But not running a sacrificial lamb candidate was not as enticing as DB might have thought - Radev is on course to win resoundingly with or without DB competition - and the Radev advisers behind the PP project laughed the offer off. DB will have to run a candidate now, but as to who it will be remains unknown. Candidate: TBA

PP: (April, July: N/A)
PP stands for Prodalzhavame promyanata, We are carrying on with the change, which is the name of the Harvard crew's project. It is a rather unwieldy name in Bulgarian too, presumably they are going to play with the 'Pro-' syllable, with 'professional' and 'progress' also being in Bulgarian.

My personal hope and expectation was that the Hahvahd crew would get more (most) of their erstwhile colleagues from the caretaker government, especially the PM, to join their project. 45% approval rate, which is what the government has, is practically universal support in Bulgaria. I could see them going the 'National Salvation' route, with prominent participation of figures associated with both BSP and the Old Right, as well as a GERB defector or two, which could have potentially made them the winners of the upcoming election, especially in conjunction with Radev's strong support. Instead we got... something:

- the leaders of the party, as stated earlier, are two businessmen, who did graduate level courses in Harvard at some point in their lives and who were recruited by Radev to be economics and finance ministers in the caretaker government. Most people consider Kiril Petkov to be the actual leader of the party - he is the Canadian-Bulgarian that was mentioned earlier - as he is very photogenic (as is his wife, who is Canadian, but immigrated to Bulgaria and is speaking the language fluently), well spoken and has a flair for publicity (ie publicly auctioning the luxury car acquired by the ex-director of a state-owned bank;
- the stated ideology of the party is 'achieving left-wing goals through right-wing means', whatever that means;
- the core of party candidates will be students of the Harvard crew, who took part in the extracurricular courses they ran for high-achieving undergraduates, mostly of Sofia University, over the past 8 years. There are also recruiting, but with three requirements: that the prospective MPs are successful in their private lives, that they have been members of no more than 1 party and that they sign a loyalty pledge that allows the party leaders to look into their bank/tax/private information, which, uh... anyway. Another selling point is that they will not parachute candidates in and everybody must run from their hometown, which may mean that at least Petkov struggles to make it into parliament.

I don't think anybody is actually quite sure what PP is. Radev's VP has called them a Bulgarian version of French LREM or Spanish Ciudadanos, which I don't think was coordinated with the PP founders. Some pundits, especially those living abroad, see them as their long-awaited progressive left-of-center project that is not socially conservative, as under Ninova BSP has even stopped pretending to support any social reform. But outside of twitter and facebook, I don't see much, if any, demand for that. Among other reasons, the vast majority of people who would consider voting for a left-of-center party have at least a positive-on-the-whole view on the Communist era and in most aspects (except, notably, for female emancipation) that era was as far away from progressivism as it gets. At the moment everybody is projecting their hopes and fears on PP, but  I think it is fair to say that their current image is of yet another party designed to appeal to the Sofia young-ish well-off good-government-type professionals that form the stereotype of the smartbeautiful and are rightly or wrongly resented by a significant proportion of the other voters.

Relevant xkcd:
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Parliament: As mentioned earlier, it is far too late in the process to form a new party, so the PP leaders went on the hunt for parties that were willing to surrender their registration in exchange for a probablу unelectable seat or two.

 
I see Volt is a part of IS!MV!. Would have thought DB would be more logical. From what I can see, the Bulgarian division does not seem to be that big, so probably unlikely any of their candidates get in.
Volt have bolted :P and are one of the two such parties (so far - there may be up to 8, but none electorally significant afaik). PP have rejected the overtures by DB and ISNI to form a coalition, explaining that they want the voters who want change to have a choice between DB on the right, ISNI on the left and PP in the (presumable) center. It remains to be seen who they will run, how they will campaign and if Radev is actually willing to go to bat for them. People who I trust suggest that the answer to the last question is no - PP being a pet project of some of his advisers, but not of Radev himself. With that in mind, I think they may struggle to make into parliament at the end, but since this is the forecast as of today my predicted share is: 8% ± 2%
President: Candidate: Rumen Radev
___________________________
4% threshold

ISNI: (April: 4.6%; July: 5%)
I, for one, would definitely be interested. Is it just to do with DB being more credible and Manolova being a highly-strung personality?

Both things are true, but also:
- it goes without saying that most people in politics are narcissists, but the leaders of ISNI factions are raging narcissists. They have always made it clear that their coalition is completely transactional, but by now they have resorted to calling themselves unspeakable names semi-publicly. I typed them out, but deleted them - really, you don't need to know. And yet they are - as of today - sticking together
- all the ISNI factions have - independently from one another - attempted to hitch their wagon to PP and got rejected. A significant swath of ISNI supporters, however, have made the move.
- the final nail in the coffin was when ,movement 21 leader Doncheva - somebody who I have mentioned before - was accused by ITN* of vote-buying: apparently she made an offer of €500 000 for support of the government that would have been formed on the 3rd try. For an ostensibly anti-corruption party, this was obviously not great publicity. Predicted share: 2% ± 1%
President: Candidate: Rumen Radev

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



As to other parties, VMRO are running alone this time - they stand no chance of making a comeback to parliament, but they will at least qualify for the state funding that is provided to the single parties that get over 1% of the vote, but not to coalitions. Their leader is also running for President for the 3rd time, but he will be much closer to his 2011 result (1%) than to his 2016 one (15%).
Vazrazhdane is still polling below the threshold, but with a strong campaign, they may yet return the nationalist/far-right spectrum to parliament.
Volya, NFSB and all other detritus of the Bulgarian political scene are shaping to be non-factors in the upcoming election.

And finally, a question: should I change the topic to 'next up: 14 November General elections' or do you have another suggestion? I think "parliamentary and presidential elections" will make the topic three-line and will look rather ugly.
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« Reply #157 on: September 22, 2021, 02:11:05 PM »

Apologies to Heat for not answering his question earlier.
Not to worry, it was more than worth the wait!

Quote
And finally, a question: should I change the topic to 'next up: 14 November General elections' or do you have another suggestion? I think "parliamentary and presidential elections" will make the topic three-line and will look rather ugly.
I'd say so, aye.
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Beagle
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« Reply #158 on: September 28, 2021, 10:23:07 AM »


Yay, at least 1 person made it to the end of the wall of text, thank you!

Couple of minor updates:
- ISNI managed to somehow snatch the earlier-mentioned minor leftist party from the BSP coalition;

- Radev announced the committee supporting his reelection (nothing worth mentioning there) and literally goaded Boyko Borisov to run for President - saying that it is up to Borisov to protect his party honor and run himself instead of hiding behind his party. GERB (like DB) have announced that they will keep their nomination a secret until the last possible filing day;

Correction: PP leaders apparently want their prospective MPs to lift their banking and tax secrets in front of the authorities, not themselves;

Mostly wanted to post an answer to a question some of you may have been asking themselves - why do all Bulgarian parties tend to veer sharply to the right during campaign season or shortly after. One of our more reliable pollsters decided to stand out among the relative flurry of pre-election polling in the past week and published a broader survey than just the horse race.  Among other stuff - like that 4 out of 10 Bulgarians are neither vaccinated or intend to get the vaccine - it was illuminating for me to see the answers to the question: "What kind of government do you want the next parliament to elect?"
  • 23.7% - a non-partisan 'expert' government
  • 13.7% - doesn't matter, as long as they govern in the country's best interests
  • 11.3% - a right-wing government
  • 10.7% - a center-right government
  • 4.6% - a left-wing government
  • 4.2% - a center-left government

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Beagle
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« Reply #159 on: October 06, 2021, 05:10:58 AM »
« Edited: October 06, 2021, 05:31:43 AM by Beagle »

GERB (like DB) have announced that they will keep their nomination a secret until the last possible filing day;

...and within 48 hours both the GERB and DB Presidential contestants had leaked out; they were officially confirmed over the weekend. We still need to learn the DPS nomination (apparently it's going to be a partisan one), but DPS (like DB) have no realistic chance of winning or even making it to the second round. So, with 40 days to go, it's time to do the Presidential preview, I will update it with the DPS candidate whenever they get around to announcing him, I will also update in the unlikely event that a compelling contender emerges from the mass of independents/minor party candidates (ie somebody likely to get more than 6-7% of the vote).

General Rumen Radev - incumbent - supported by ITN, BSP, PP and ISNI*
* the 'NI' part of ISNI has co-endorsed Radev and Panov

The Bulgarian presidency has some appointment powers and national security prerogatives, so it is not completely ceremonial, but with a relatively-easy-to-override veto, it's virtually toothless. The President's greatest power by far is the proverbial bully pulpit and Rumen Radev has used it to good effect. The former Air Force chief was having a rather non-descript first term until 2019, when his criticism of the captured state became more pronounced and pointed at GERB-DPS corruption. Things escalated dramatically when the chief prosecutor's Bureau for Witness Protection stormed the presidency to arrest two Radev advisors* for the flimsiest of reasons. This brought out massive protests by virtually all non-GERB/DPS parties - from the Old Right through the far-left, and yes, including exiled oligarch-paid mobs, nationalists and general malcontents. Radev became the target for a sustained attack by the GERB-friendly media (which is pretty much all mainstream media in Bulgaria) and GERB jabs that bore increasingly little contact with reality. Intentionally or not, this made Radev into the focal point for Borisov opponents, which outnumber Borisov supporters by at least 2 to 1. This, as well as Radev's populism (ie attacking the government for being too soft on the Macedonian EU accession), has all but guaranteed him reelection.

Vice-president: the incumbent, a former BSP MP/MEP - Radev becoming the second president in modern Bulgarian history who finishes his first term on speaking terms with his VP;

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Prof. Anastas Gerdzhikov - Head (rector) of Sofia University - supported by GERB, pre-emptively endorsed in the second round by DPS

A third generation academic, Gerdzhikov was apparently GERB's fourth or fifth choice, but heads of hospitals that became prominent during Covid, as well as successful GERB mayors, all declined to run. Although ambitious, Gerdzhikov was a surprising choice, because he has never been associated with GERB - after a stint as a deputy Education minister in the NDSV government, he has been largely absent from the political battlefield - and, without going into too much detail, I can attest that he's been close to the 'Old Right' parties in recent years. IMO this is a stop-loss, damage control nomination that GERB needed in order not to weaken their parliamentary campaign. Nobody is coming out to vote against Gerdzhikov, while Borisov or another GERB partisan figure would have brought out the GERB haters and a doctor would have brought out the Covid deniers. Very few people are coming out to vote for Gerdzhikov, but as long as he's not hurting the parliamentary result, he's perfect for GERB. From first impressions, Gerdzhikov is definitely not going to run an incendiary campaign, leaving the over-the-top accusations against Radev to Borisov and other GERB figures*. His hope is to sneak under the radar and rely on strong DPS support in the second round, which could potentially lead to an upset, but as of today, Gerdzhikov is very much an underdog.

Vice-president: A 1988 Olympic swimmer who parlayed being a swimming coach for the military swim team into a career in the HR/PR departments of the Bulgarian armed forces, eventually being promoted to colonel. She is an activist for female participation in the military, but it's pretty clear that her nomination is because of her one-time position as the Air Force's PR head under Radev - with her immediate predecessor becoming Radev's lover/wife (see 09 September post above).

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



judge Lozan Panov - chief judge on the Supreme Cassation Court - supported by DB co-endorsed by NI faction from ISNI

Panov was elected chief judge by the votes of GERB-DPS over a more qualified judge. Yet in a David Souter-like transformation brought about by his second wife, who he married 4 days after his appointment, he emerged as a vocal critic of the captured state and the GERB-DPS dismantling of the rule of law. Another victim of sustained GERB-DPS media attacks, Panov has become something of a rallying flag for the Old Right's fight for judicial reform, so with his term as chief judge expiring, he was always going to be DB's nominee if he ran and there are even pipe dreams that he can make it into the second round somehow. This is absolutely impossible - judicial reform is not the priority for the majority of the voters and, in any case, Panov is... uh... eccentric and his speaking style is probably off-putting for most.

Vice-president: a journalist/columnist/author, who is far from a household name - both because she is not that well known and because her double-barreled surname reflects her marriage to a French journalist and her father's - a popular actor from the 70s and 80s who died young - Albanian heritage.

Note: All of the above are technically running as independents and all the VP candidates are female, if I wasn't clear enough above

Every nationalist party is running separately - Vazrazhdane,VMRO, NFSB, Ataka and 2-3 more; at least 2 of the party leaders are running just to spite the others. I may have occasion to return to this spectrum if the polling indicates that one of these candidates is about to consolidate the 'nationalist' support behind himself, with Vazrazhdane's leader by far the likeliest contender, but even in a best-case-for-them scenario, there will not be a nationalist in the second round.

There's a ton of hustlers running - at least 7 independents in addition to the main ones above + however many party candidates - but unless there is popular demand, I am not going to do the freakshow as in 2016. While amusing, it really doesn't enlighten anyone any.

A second round is looking likelier than not, as it will take 50+% for both turnout and vote share to avoid a run-off on 21 November.

Edit: forgot to write up DB's VP candidate earlier, not that it matters that much
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Beagle
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« Reply #160 on: October 10, 2021, 04:45:28 PM »

Today was the second round of a minor local by-elections day, caused by a number of convictions, covid deaths and resignations - in one particularly illustrative case of prospects in rural Bulgaria, the mayor resigned because she found it more worthwhile to go and take care of nonnas in Italy rather than to serve her community of 4,000.

The two biggest prizes of the night went, respectively, to GERB (a notional gain from SDS/Old Right) and to Ind. (a gain from BSP). But both cases are far from straightforward. In the former, the SDS mayor in the only municipality outside of the major cities where the Old Right won precincts in national elections as late as 2009 (until 2021) got convicted for driving on hard drugs and GERB, taking advantage of their coalition with SDS, got a veteran of the SDS administration to run under the banner of GERB-SDS. In the latter, where the BSP mayor resigned after getting elected to the short-lived July parliament, GERB dropped their 2019 candidate in favor of the 2019 DPS candidate (who had been deputy mayor in the BSP-headed administration), but got beaten by a GERB dissident, endorsed in the second round by all non-GERB/DPS parties.

Then there was a mayoral election in this place too:
The Roma village of Bukovlak in the vicinity of Pleven became a by-word for, uh, extraordinary results in 2011 – 85% turnout, 66% for the GERB candidate in the first round, 92% in the second. In 2015, new heights of civic enthusiasm were achieved – 96% turnout, 94% GERB in the first round, 99% in the second [...]
Result was:
DPS - 68%
GERB-ITN-DB 29%
BSP - 3%

It must be pointed out that the DPS candidate was Roma, while the other two were Bulgarian. The police went heavy-handed against vote-buying in the days before the poll, so the election may be considered rather fair for Bukovlak standards.

DPS are probably the winners of the round. Every other party suffered at least a few disappointing results (particularly ITN), while DPS scored a couple of wins in Bulgarian majority places (albeit in the guise of minor parties that were 'endorsed' by the DPS)

Are these results indicative of the election on 14 November? Almost certainly no, I just posted them because of the picture they paint of the Bulgarian political scene in 2021. The only presumable lessons are that the turnout will again be atrocious (although probably higher than 11 July) and that the DPS is going to be more, uh, assertive this time around. Speaking of which...
-----------------
DPS have announced their presidential candidate - party leader Mustafa Karadayi. Of course, Karadayi is just a front for the party's honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan, but still: for the first time in the 7 Presidential elections so far, DPS are running a party candidate instead of endorsing another party's candidate (as in 1996 and 2006), an ostensible independent (2001 & 2016) or sitting out (1992 & 2011). It is also the first time that an ethnic Turk will gain more than a negligible percentage in a Presidential election. DPS, despite having a support base that is overwhelmingly Turkish/Roma, have scrupulously pushed ethnic Bulgarians as the party's faces (outside of the party leader himself), with about half of DPS ministers being Bulgarian (or at least non-Turkish). The decision to run a party presidential candidate may have been induced by the desire to have the same number on the presidential ballot as the parliamentary one - all the parties that support an independent will need to campaign 'vote X on the parliamentary, but Y on the presidential', which would have been very difficult for substantial parts of the DPS electorate that are unable to read Bulgarian.

Vice-president candidate is an MEP ex-environment minister.

With the party leader running himself and with the comeback to the party lists of the infamous Delyan Peevski - "an oligarch who previously served as a Bulgarian MP and media mogul and has regularly engaged in corruption, using influence peddling and bribes to protect himself from public scrutiny and exert control over key institutions and sectors in Bulgarian society", as per his Magnitsky act sanctions - there is little doubt that DPS are going all out in this election and may even contend for second place in the parliamentary election unless the caretaker government manages to reign in their vote buying. The polls for the presidential election will come with the formal opening of the campaign in 3 days time, but here's what my gut feeling* tells me the current state of the now-set presidential race is:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


 

Radev (i) (supported by ITN, BSP*, PP and ISNI) - 44-52%
Gerdzhikov (supported by GERB) - 21-25%
Karadyi (DPS) - 9-13%
Panov (supported by DB) - 8-11%
Kostadinov (Vazrazhdane) - 3-4%
other Nationalists - 2% combined
20-odd others - 4% combined

* this asterisk is going to be needed for any mention of BSP's support of Radev. I don't ever watch the BSP party television, but apparently the Ninova loyalist presenters are all outright campaigning against Radev's reelection (or at least concern trolling his campaign). As stated earlier, the rank-and-file appear to be firmly behind Radev, but the party leadership will be pretty happy if he loses.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #161 on: October 10, 2021, 05:06:30 PM »

Today was the second round of a minor local by-elections day, caused by a number of convictions, covid deaths and resignations - in one particularly illustrative case of prospects in rural Bulgaria, the mayor resigned because she found it more worthwhile to go and take care of nonnas in Italy rather than to serve her community of 4,000.

Ah yes, famously badanti i.e. elderly carers seem to be disproportionately Eastern European women here. But I had no idea some were mayors back home, lol.

Anyway, thanks yet again for keeping posting these update effortposts. Yes, some of us manage to read them!
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Beagle
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« Reply #162 on: October 14, 2021, 07:58:07 AM »

PP revealed their candidates. Apart from one or two celebrities, prominent businessmen and a few representatives of the 'launch vehicle' parties, there is a conspicuous absence of politicians/public figures apart from the Harvard crew themselves. Last month there was a 'wishlist' circulating of BSP, ITN and ISNI MPs who PP wanted to appropriate for themselves (some of them even mentioned as 'model MPs' by the party leader Petkov), but none have made the switch. The PP's biggest 'get' was a deputy district mayor from DB.

PP have also announced their platform 17-sentence-list of platitudes priorities. In summary, they are running on 'the system can work, as long as the people running it are fundamentally decent'. I personally happen to agree, but don't know if this sound appealing to the vast majority of people who demand radical change.

At this point, it is clear that even if there was a plan for PP to position themselves as left-of-center, their hearts are not in it. To quote myself, they appear to be yet another party designed to appeal to the Sofia young-ish well-off good-government-type professionals that form the stereotype of the smartbeautiful and are rightly or wrongly resented by a significant proportion of the other voters. PP are quite happy to concede the social progressivism mantle to DB (whose VP candidate and a couple of party list leaders are vocal supporters of same-sex marriage) and are very much 'neoliberal' on the economy.

The Canadian citizenship issue is not going away, as upon entry into the office of minister, Petkov signed a formal statement that he fulfills all requirements, including not-holding-dual citizenship. But developments in this case will be after the election.
----------------------------
DB thought they'd be cute and file their election paperwork with electronic signatures. And, of course, they filed at the last possible minute due to the fights for electable places within the coalition. So when problems presented themselves and people refused to rectify them because the electronic signature should be sufficient, the party list for one of the regions has been rejected, subject to court appeal. I will not go into the substance of the dispute, but even as their supporter, the DB legal argument does not look particularly great. If the court confirms the rejection, DB stands to lose 2 seats in the next parliament.

However, if the electoral commission follows through on the GERB proposal that the party lists for all 8 regions where DB filed with electronic signatures are struck down, DB may very well be reduced to insignificance in the upcoming parliament, even though participation in it is not itself in jeopardy. The DB legal argument against that is much stronger, but the court which would hear the appeal is a GERB/DPS fiefdom.
----------------------------
Following the outcry, BSP have fired their party television presenter who was calling for Radev's defeat.
----------------------------
A number of opening-day-of-the-campaign polls are not showing anything unexpected - the only marked difference is whether ITN is in the fight for 2nd with BSP and PP in the 15% range or in the fight for 4th with DB and DPS in the 10% range.
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Beagle
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« Reply #163 on: October 20, 2021, 06:25:02 AM »

DB won the challenge to the electoral commission's ruling against their slate - as per the court ruling, the ITN chief of the regional commission blatantly lied on the facts of the case - and the judgement is final, so now they will run in all regions.

Meanwhile, as covid cases and deaths spike (shocking as it may be, in a country where 4 out of 5 are not vaccinated), the caretaker government has introduced a 'green pass' scheme with 48 hours notice. At present, government buildings around the country are besieged by small crowds of rabid antivaxxers, helmed by the nationalists from Ataka and Vazrazhdane. The education minister was confronted by a couple of Vazrazhdane supporters and suffered a few blows. ITN and BSP leader Ninova* have also called for the health minister's resignation for this discrimination and assault on the freedom of choice.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



The electoral effects are obviously unknown at this point, but it must be pointed out that the only party from the 'Radev constellation' that is explicitly pro-vaccines is PP, all others are either outright deniers (ITN) or at least have broad skeptical wings. Since the present government is Radev's personal choice, if the anti-vaxxer crowd turns on him, the re-election campaign may be far from the walk in the park that it appeared a couple of months ago. As to the parliament campaign, I imagine that at least by the July election the anti- and pro-vaxx crowds have coalesced around the parties that espouse their views, so while there may be movement within the camps, I don't think there will be a significant number who change their vote on the green pass issue.

Good news (YMMV) is that the vaccination centers in Sofia, at least, are also besieged by people waiting in line to get the Janssen vaccine and be done with it.
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« Reply #164 on: November 08, 2021, 10:37:22 AM »

this is on sunday, deserves a little bump
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Beagle
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« Reply #165 on: November 11, 2021, 02:23:40 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2021, 03:39:42 AM by Beagle »

As good a time as any to post the final preview effortpost, even though the pollster that has typically performed best in pre-election polling won't publish their results until Friday.

The dual campaign has been defined by parochial petty squabbling against a backdrop of an increasingly dire Covid crisis, an energy crisis, an economy that has been deprived of vital remittances and foreign investment and a caretaker government that is scared to do anything that may hurt the popularity of the President who has picked them. Of course, it doesn't help that the bulk of the population hold all these things to be simultaneously true:
  • that vaccines are scary, harmful and/or unnecessary
  • that everything should be opened up at once and precautions are only for the weak/vulnerable
  • that neither they nor everybody close to them will get infected
  • that even the mildest form of restrictions for the unvaccinated amounts to a gross violation of their human rights
  • that the government should just provide handouts to anybody who has suffered any hardship from the crisis
(the latter two beliefs have been sustained both by the final few months of the GERB government and by the 5 months of caretaker government).

Entirely understandably, everybody is pretty sick and tired of elections - even the wikipedian who had been dutifully collecting polls for the page and converted the undecided/unreported numbers to a unified standard abandoned this sometime in October, making it a tad more difficult to get a grip on the outlook, but the various polls have converged (herded?), pointing to a rather clear picture.

Also predictably, the presidential race has sucked out the air from the parliamentary campaign. So I suppose I should start with it:

President

Rumen Radev - incumbent - supported by ITN, BSP, PP and ISNI

A second round was always likely, but now looks inevitable. Radev has refused to debate his opponents and his campaigning is mostly confined to three things:
- glad-handing at various campaign stops around the country;
- demonstrating that he's kept up with his physical training from the military days (hey, maybe the next EU summit should also hold a push-up challenge - with Radev's 50 per minute, Bulgaria may actually have a chance of coming on top of something for once);
- exchanging barbs with Boyko Borisov. Borisov has taken to calling Radev 'The Bulgarslayer'*, among various other insults and allegations (varying from 'bearing a degree of truth' to 'completely unhinged'). As long as the Borisov-Radev antagonism is that high, Radev's reelection is quite safe: many more people want to humiliate Borisov, even if Radev may not be perfect, than the opposite.
Prediction: 44% (I'd say a 3% MoE sounds about right)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Anastas Gerdzhikov - supported by GERB, pre-emptively endorsed in the second round by DPS

Well, you can't fault him for not trying and he has actually measurably improved his standing in polling compared to the beginning of the campaign. It is certain that he will outpace the GERB result by at least 3-4%. But in the end, Gerdzhikov has not made any significant inroads with any of the blocks which could have potentially carried him to victory, not made any noise with his policy proposals and has generally been content to go with the GERB flow. He - as was always likely - will make it to the second round, but it seems even reducing his loss there to a respectable 45:55 may be too much of a hurdle. Again, though, his was a stop-loss nomination and in that, he has fulfilled his purpose.
Prediction: 26%

Mustafa Karadayi
- DPS

Figurehead leader of DPS or not, the purpose of Karadayi running is to get their machine in gear for the parliamentary election. Obviously he's not going to come anywhere near close to the run-off - for some reason, his one redeeming quality, which is selfless devotion to the honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan, does not translate very well into votes from non-DPS voters. But he also will have accomplished his purpose.
Prediction: 10%

Lozan Panov - supported by DB

Political consultants probably don't advise calling the leaders of the party that supports you traitors for even contemplating entering post-election negotiations with BSP. Panov just did, though, and that's one more example of him being, uh, eccentric. I mean... he's not exactly wrong that GERB and BSP are both corrupt organizations that have nurtured, cultivated and benefited from the captured state and that every party - including DB and PP - has some shady influences and dependencies. But I have my doubts if he would have called Radev a wannabe despot in the Borisov mold if the National Revenue Agency (whose director was appointed by the first caretaker cabinet) didn't appeal against the initial court ruling that dismissed Panov's penalties for some error in his tax declaration. And in general, Panov seems to be laboring under the impression that once he tells the truth people will gather with pitchforks and torches to demand justice. Well, good luck with that.
Prediction: 6%

Nobody else has made any significant noise. Kostadinov (Vazrazhdane) is definitely going to be 5th, but his gimmicks (such as getting his goons to disrupt vaccination sites) were upstaged by others in that spectrum, so he has failed to gain significant traction. In this way, the low requirements for running for president, which coaxed every nationalist leader under the sun to run a separate presidential campaign (there's 8, including Volya's Mareshki as a borderline case), have been proven rather justifiable which I definitely didn't consider at first.

OK, I will post the parliament preview later today or tomorrow, since I have some work to do. Feel free to ask any questions.
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Beagle
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« Reply #166 on: November 13, 2021, 09:53:18 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2021, 11:10:50 AM by Beagle »

Apologies, seems like I locked the thread when I was logged in on my phone and attempted to add a few more details to my draft.

Now, Parliament. 3rd time lucky, eh?

GERB - they are going to win (as in come in first) and win by a significant margin, but this doesn't stop them from claiming the elections are going to be #rigged and stolen from them. What at first appeared to be common or garden variety paranoia became much more of a talking point after the storage where the voting machines are held was discovered to hold a number of machines that are not owned by the state. It didn't help that the supplier offered wildly inconsistent origin stories about them (they are for demo purposes in Georgia? No, Armenia! No, actually they are for spare parts. Actually, it's none of your [the media's] business) Of course, it is not like the caretaker government will announce a previously uncontacted Bulgarian tribe in the mountains and suddenly open new precincts using the new machines, but it has been a part of GERB's campaign to sow distrust in voting by machine. There is a clamor for returning to paper ballots, we'll see how this goes... and this is breaking news, the electoral commission has now announced that the poll workers will have to do a manual count of the paper trail of all voting machines. Just the news I needed :/

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Other than that, the party, like in the past 3-4 elections, relies entirely on Borisov's personality as both their chief campaign tool and platform.

If my prediction comes to truth, I will expound on a theory I have about GERB's performance, but for now I'll just say that they should receive a small boost compared to July, but nothing that makes them a plausible governing party under regular circumstances.

From here on there is an almighty scramble of the 5 other parties that are certain to be in parliament, and, given the MoE, it would not be a complete surprise to see any of the 5 come in 2nd. But the final round of polling, as well as my ear on the ground, indicates that the 2-3 order will be as follows:

PP - the Constitutional court gave (in a significantly shorter timeframe than it usually takes them) their ruling that PP leader Petkov did indeed hold his ministerial position illegally due to his Canadian dual citizenship. PP kinda leveraged that into 'see how threatening we are to the GERB establishment that they prosecute us for laughable reasons'. Many people lost respect for PP, but the Bulgarian parties have long since given up on the idea that they need to appeal to everybody and within the 'parties of the protest' camp, the PP position finds good reception. Radev did support Petkov in the citizenship row, which is also helpful.

The campaign drew a significant distinction between DB and PP. No, they continue to be carbon copies of each other in policy, but whereas DB are always doom-and-glooming about the Bulgarian captured state, PP are campaigning with almost relentless positivity, including a strict no-attack policy on DB and ISNI (and mild criticism for ITN and BSP). This lead to the rather incongruous picture of Petkov holding a joint campaign appearance with ISNI leader Manolova and appealing for voters to support ISNI as an indispensable part of a future 'change' coalition.
I am giving PP 2-3 points more than the polls predict. Two main reasons: the largest party that is neither GERB nor BSP always receives a slight last minute boost from the 'pox-on-both-their-houses' voters and, at least according to one survey, most of the wavering voters at this stage are choosing whether to vote PP or DB

BSP - the BSP leadership and the inner party opposition are running essentially two (at least two) separate campaigns. Ninova is preoccupied with keeping her hold on the party, not so much on the campaign (also, she did have covid), but she is happy with the BSP's position of potential kingmaker, so she is laying low. The opposition is very disparate, but there may unite under one of the younger BSP MPs, who was previously touted as Ninova's protege, but once talk began of him as a future BSP leader, he obviously got ostracized by the leadership.

BSP should get a better result than in July - but, again, I'd bet actual money that the overwhelming majority of 'new' BSP voters are low information voters, coming out for Radev and supporting 'his' party. BSP significantly underperformed their polls in both April and July, I expect they will so again, but maybe to a lesser extent.

ITN - I have little to report, they have hemorrhaged votes like crazy, but there is a hard floor under which I don't imagine they will fall. However, it is entirely possible that they are overtaken by DPS and/or DB. The argument that they got betrayed by their fellow parties of the protest is not taken seriously by the overwhelming majority, but, again, the parties mostly preach to the choir, figuring that under the circumstances a small but resilient base is preferable to a broad, but shallow support.

As near as I could tell, ITN laid pretty low during the campaign, reverting to making most appearances on the party's own channel. But they have also taken their anti-vaxxerism down a notch and appear more conciliatory about support for another party's cabinet. However, their demand is that PP's Petkov may not be PM, as they are the ones that first brought the scandal to the attention of the public.

DPS - it would have been pretty surprising if the DPS campaign had reached me. The impression I get is that they are going very heavily in the constituencies where they have established dominance. Since Peevski came back to the forefront, their campaigning has been much more visible (and/or more reported on by the Bulgarian media). The DPS are campaigning for a government by the 'status-quo' parties, latching themselves to GERB, who while not exactly thrilled, don't dare to disavow a coalition or outside support agreement with DPS. BSP are similarly keeping mum.

DB - the 3 component parties (DSB, Yes Bulgaria and the Greens) are getting along just fine, but still there was an internecine conflict when the party lists were negotiated. The IT sector, which provides a significant support base and finances DB to the point where they are the party with the most billboards and the sleekest TV ads (by comparison, PP's ads are atrociously bad, 'graphic design is my passion' stuff), demanded a few more electable seats, especially since in July a couple of their representatives lost out on preferences to the professional politicians. Some of the professional politicians didn't take this lightly and there were a few 'DB in disarray' stories. All in all, DB are going back to April levels of support, which isn't bad, given the emergence of PP.

Prediction (with 2% MoE)
GERB - 24%
PP - 18%
BSP - 15%
ITN - 11%
DPS - 10%
DB - 10%

Again, the latter 3 parties may come in any order, but it would be a major surprise if any of them gets over 14% or less than 8%.

I give ISNI about 25% chance of making it over the 4% threshold - I can't think of any example of 'lent' voters in modern Bulgarian history, like the FDP sometimes gets CDU support to get them over the hurdle in Germany, but maybe now is the time, since the closing surveys all indicate that they are either right at the threshold or just under it. For me, personally, they are overpolling and will remain below 4% by a significant margin.

Vazrazhdane remain below 4% in every single survey, but with a strong overseas vote and with nationalists probably realizing that Vazrazhdane is their only chance of representation, I still give them about 20% chance of making it.

As to what happens next... I was so sure that ITN, DB and ISNI would come to an arrangement last time that I'm scared to give any prediction. But, and take this with whatever dose of salt you want, my money is on a PP-BSP-DB-ITN arrangement (in which at least one party will be outside of government) for a short-lived 'program' government. The pundits uniformly predict that the next parliament will have roughly 100 MPs from GERB-DPS (representing the status-quo), 100 MPs between PP-ITN-DB (representing 'change') and BSP with 40-ish MPs as the kingmaker.

I will work the same poll again on election day, so don't expect any real-time updates, except maybe a turnout report towards the end of the day.
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Beagle
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« Reply #167 on: November 13, 2021, 10:18:42 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2021, 10:38:14 AM by Beagle »

Had a question by PM, presumably because the thread was locked:


How likely is a Radev-coalition of BSP (new leadership?) with PP+ITN+DB+antiCorruptionists?


Well, BSP will be heading very soon to another showdown between Ninova and her inner-party opposition, but with Ninova installing loyalists at almost every district organization outside Sofia and Plovdiv, a peaceful transfer of power is out of the question and so, for the time being, it is very very unlikely that BSP will have new leadership.

As to cooperation between 'parties of the protest' and BSP under Ninova, well, I'd say it can and it should happen, but it will by necessity be short-lived. And the best way Radev can help give birth to such a coalition is by coming out against it, as Ninova will do pretty much anything to spite him.

At the moment, the publicly announced red lines, ie. parties' promises on cooperation that they consider inviolable are:

GERB: no cooperation with BSP under any form; preferred partners: PP and DB
PP: no cooperation with GERB/DPS, until their corrupt leaders resign and/or are jailed. So no cooperation with GERB/DPS. Preferred partners: DB
BSP: can't think of any; Preferred partners: Uh... come back to me later
ITN: no cooperation with GERB/DPS. No support for any cabinet which includes Petkov (PP) as minister/PM; Preferred partners: PP and DB
DPS: no cooperation with DB. Preferred partners: GERB, to a lesser extent BSP;
DB: no cooperation with GERB/DPS. No support for any cabinet under BSP mandate or containing former Communist secret service operatives. Preferred partners: PP

In summary, yes, it is possible, although Radev is probably not going to play a significant part in its formation.

Edit: something that I was meaning to write in the earlier post, but it may as well go here: there is a sizable current in all 'parties of the protest' - mostly in ITN, but in PP, DB and ISNI too - that they need to stay in opposition at whatever cost. The thinking is that the next government is surely going to have to implement deeply unpopular measures and that it would be a poisoned chalice to enter it. Plus, they want the 'status-quo' parties to drop the pretense and make official their cooperation that has been going on for most, if not all, of the GERB years.
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bigic
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« Reply #168 on: November 13, 2021, 12:09:09 PM »

GERB: no cooperation with BSP under any form; preferred partners: PP and DB
PP: no cooperation with GERB/DPS, until their corrupt leaders resign and/or are jailed. So no cooperation with GERB/DPS. Preferred partners: DB
BSP: can't think of any; Preferred partners: Uh... come back to me later
ITN: no cooperation with GERB/DPS. No support for any cabinet which includes Petkov (PP) as minister/PM; Preferred partners: PP and DB
DPS: no cooperation with DB. Preferred partners: GERB, to a lesser extent BSP;
DB: no cooperation with GERB/DPS. No support for any cabinet under BSP mandate or containing former Communist secret service operatives. Preferred partners: PP
So there are two coalitions that could theoretically not breach the red lines - GERB + DPS and PP + BSP + ITN + DB. The first coalition obviously won't get a majority, and the second coalition (without PP) has been "tried" two times (who knows, maybe third time's the charm?)
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Beagle
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« Reply #169 on: November 14, 2021, 08:01:20 AM »

Midday-ish update frolm the polling place, turnout is notably up, all indications are that I *under*estimated the pox-on-both-houses vote, plus the desire to punish the parties of the protest for not forming the government last time around. Which results in a massive upsurge in PP support at the expense of ITN and DB and a battle for first between GERB and PP, while ITN and DB are around 7-8 percent
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OldEurope
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« Reply #170 on: November 14, 2021, 08:42:34 AM »


According to this turnout is down



https://results.cik.bg/pvrns2021/tur1/aktivnost/index.html
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #171 on: November 14, 2021, 11:15:23 AM »

This is not all that relevant but I just realized Hristo Ivanov looks weirdly like Matteo Salvini and I can't stop thinking about this.
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OldEurope
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« Reply #172 on: November 14, 2021, 02:36:04 PM »

GERB and PP neck and neck,
V in or out?
IBG.NI out

PP-DB-ITN with BSP support?

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Beagle
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« Reply #173 on: November 14, 2021, 05:48:11 PM »

Oof. Based on parallel counts, and with normal dynamics they should be *under*stimating PP, Vazrazhdane, DPS and to a lesser extent ITN and DB, while overestimating GERB and vastly overestimating BSP:

PP - 26% (!!) (new)
GERB-23% (-)
DPS-11.5% (+1)
BSP- 10.5% (!) (-3)
ITN - 9.5% (!) (-14)
DB - 6.5% (!) (-6)
Vazrazhdane - 5% (+2)
__________________
ISNI - 2.5% (-2.5)

Very preliminary comments, although the results are pretty darn eloquent by themselves:
- the dynamics are pretty clear - PP consolidated the anti-GERB vote behind them, cannibalizing their projected partners, but also taking a fair bit from BSP; they are coming 10% ahead from their pre-election polling which is a pretty glaring mess however you put it, but it does seem that a lot of the movement happened in the last few days
- GERB are already screaming about how the election has been stolen and #rigged
- BSP fall even further. No, I did not see it coming. Yes, it *should* spell the end for Ninova, although don't expect her to go quietly
- ITN and DB, well, it's pretty clear that the voters punished both, but ITN at least had some major policy differences with PP, while DB are pretty much offering the same thing as PP, only with tons of skeletons in their closet
- Vazrazhdane, surprisingly to a lot of pundits, did end up making it

More will be coming in the next few days, but the *only* path forward now is PP-BSP-ITN-DB finding some sort of working arrangements that should satisfy them for half an year or so.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #174 on: November 14, 2021, 06:53:41 PM »

Well that was unexpected. Will there even be a runoff in thebpresidential race with those results?
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