Which state is more likely to vote Republican in 2024?

[Xing]

I'm actually going to say Michigan, even if I don't think it'll be easy for Republican to win it. I'd rate Michigan Tilt D and Georgia Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI isn't voting R with Stabenow on ballot in 2024 lol

[Real Texan Politics]

MI isn't voting R with Stabenow on ballot in 2024 lol

Ticket splitting is still a thing lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI isn't voting R with Stabenow on ballot in 2024 lol

Ticket splitting is still a thing lol

D's are gonna win MI with Whitmer

[S019]

MI isn't voting R with Stabenow on ballot in 2024 lol

Stabenow is actually a pretty weak incumbent who did around a point worse than the House Dem slate in the state. I'm actually hoping she retires tbh, I think she'd lose if she ran again.

[Stuart98]

Neither is all that likely but Georgia trends favor Dems much more than Michigan's.

[SnowLabrador]

Georgia due to voter suppression.

[EastwoodS]

Neither is all that likely but Georgia trends favor Dems much more than Michigan's.

I’m just basking in is this EC map prediction here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Read this https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jim-clyburn-joe-manchin-voting-rights-192826753.html


Clyburn said GA is the most likely state to go red if voter suppression laws aren't lifted

Stop playing Xing, MI has gone D in every Election except 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Georgia due to voter suppression.

Didn't you say that Loeffler and Perdue were gonna win

[SAAuthCapitalist]

This depends on the Republican candidate.

A Ron DeSantis is more likely to win Georgia, but a Donald Trump is more likely to win Michigan. Of course, both are capable of winning GA and MI.

[Senator Spark]

GA. Michigan is very hard to win for a Republican.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

GA, as Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024 now appears not very likely.

[EastwoodS]

GA, as Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024 now appears not very likely.

Most people would say this helps us.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

GA, as Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024 now appears not very likely.

Most people would say this helps us.

Trump seemed like a uniquely poor candidate for the Atlanta Suburbs.

[beesley]

I'd rate both as Lean D, but I still think GA.

[CookieDamage]

Trends favor Dems in both, but they favor Dems a heck of a lot more in Georgia.

Trends favoring Dems are mostly population growth in Lansing and Ann Arbor, but the growth is slow and can easily be counteracted by population loss and further right-wing trend of the rest of the state + loss of Detroit's population. Georgia is much better equipped to give Dems a win in a narrow victory (as we have already seen).

I'd say Georgia - Lean D. Michigan - Lean/Tilt D.

[Medal506]

Georgia due to voter suppression.

Didn't you say that Loeffler and Perdue were gonna win

They did win, they were cheated just like Trump was.

[Chips]

GA.

[Jerseyrules]

I think it depends largely on who the nominee is and what kind of campaign they run. If the GOP continues heading in the direction of Trump-style protectionism and populism, I'd say it's more likely that Michigan goes red than Georgia. I'm still a bit surprised by the election results in that Georgia was consistently more red than Florida and North Carolina until 2020 in the elections during the 21st century. So if the Republican Party nominates someone that's more of a return to the traditional type of GOP candidate and they campaign as such, I think there's a good chance the 2024 map looks a bit more like the sort of ones we're used to seeing. But that's a pretty big if, and I'm not sure any of us can predict what's going to happen during the next few years. Trump himself will likely play an influential role, probably more as kingmaker than an actual candidate.

[Non Swing Voter]

Really depends if Republicans run on tax cuts or social nonsense.  If they run on tax cuts they probably improve in some of the Michigan suburbs that swung the election like in the Grand Rapids area.  Their problem is low propensity deplorable turnout is going to be lower if it's anyone but Trump so I think it hurts them in a state like Michigan.  The margin in these two states probably ends up being very close to each other.  This is a good/hard hypo.

[If my soul was made of stone]

GA, as Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024 now appears not very likely.

Most people would say this helps us.

Trump seemed like a uniquely poor candidate for the Atlanta Suburbs.

Nathan Deal and David Perdue both lost Henry County in 2014 after it voted for Romney in 2012. Trump was an awful fit for ATL, but the region was zooming left before him and would've still done so without him.

[Utah Neolib]

Georgia

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

GA, as Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024 now appears not very likely.

Most people would say this helps us.

Trump seemed like a uniquely poor candidate for the Atlanta Suburbs.

Atlanta suburbs would still vote the same way if it was Jeb Bush running for president.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

GA, as Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024 now appears not very likely.

Most people would say this helps us.

Most people would be placing "Jan 6!" over the reality of 2016 and 2020. Trump was a formidable candidate, and although that may be a dragon a comeback bid, he remains one of the more electorally formidable Republicans (who can win the primaries, that is). Candidates like Cruz and Haley would fare worse.