If you were Romney in 2012, Who do you pick as your running mate? (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  If you were Romney in 2012, Who do you pick as your running mate? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Without any hindsight, If you were Romney who would you have picked as your running mate?
#1
Paul Ryan (R-WI)
 
#2
Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
 
#3
Rob Portman (R-OH)
 
#4
Rick Santorum (R-PA)
 
#5
Bob McDonnell (R-VA)
 
#6
Marco Rubio (R-FL)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: If you were Romney in 2012, Who do you pick as your running mate?  (Read 1177 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« on: April 02, 2021, 12:29:38 PM »

I actually would've went with Santorum as not only would I have thought that Santorum gives me a good chance in OH but it also would've helped make PA competitive allowing me to focus on FL, VA and the smaller swing states.



247 guaranteed electoral votes for Obama with PA.



227 guaranteed electoral votes for Obama without PA.



OH, PA and FL along with the lean and solid states is enough.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2021, 12:32:57 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2021, 12:37:45 PM by Chips »

The line of thinking for Romney when he picked Ryan was probably that he could've had a good shot to deliver not only WI but IA to Romney as well and coupled that up with FL, VA and CO they thought that the upper midwestern duo would've given them a fair shot to win without OH.

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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2021, 02:58:33 PM »

What's this revisionist history with Santorum somehow being popular in PA? He was despised by the end of his tenure. Best-case scenario is he would've pumped turnout in the historically conservative sections of central PA though there was no way he was winning Luzerne/Erie/Northampton like Trump did in '16.


Romney's hypothetical path to victory was never making inroads in blue-collar strongholds like NE Ohio, the Coal Region of NEPA, Macomb County Michigan, or the Driftless Area of Wisconsin. Obama was winning those areas no matter what. A man that literally said "let Detroit go bankrupt" never stood a chance there. His path was heavily focused on the middle-aged suburbanites which have been a reliable part of the GOP coalition since time immemorial. The suburban voter that now votes reliably D was still fresh out of college with a hope and change poster on their wall in 2012.


For that reason, I would say Portman would've been the best choice. He would've coalesced support for Romney in western Ohio, helped him run better in NOVA due to his track record on foreign policy, perhaps softened the GOP hardline stance on immigration enough to win Florida, and maybe even peeled off enough suburbanites for him to win Colorado.

Granted, This was without hindsight. If I had hindsight, I would've agreed with you and picked Portman but I still would've made a bigger play for PA.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2021, 03:12:50 PM »

The way I see it Romney had three paths to victory.

One: Win FL, OH and VA plus one smaller swing state.



This was by far the most likely path Romney would've took if he were to have won. FL+OH+VA+either CO or IA seemed to be the most viable path for Romney in particular.

Two: Upper Midwest



OH was always in doubt. Romney also thought he needed a backup plan in case he lost OH. This is where the upper midwestern path comes to light with Romney squeezing out narrow wins in IA and WI while also winning VA, CO and FL making OH irrelevant. NV and NH are gravy.

Three: 2004 Redux



This would've been the 2004 map except NM goes solidly Obama and Obama ekes out a win in Ohio but Romney wins in NH, a state where Romney hoped his Northeastern coattails could've handed him a victory. He would've also needed to have won Nevada. Obama wins by a very narrow margin in WI while Romney squeaks out a Bush 04' margin of victory in IA.
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