March 2020; No Covid yet Yellowstone Valcono Erupts who wins?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Let’s say that Rather than Covid the main crisis of 2020 is a Yellowstone valcano erruption. Governments take the same kind of action they did during the pandemic who wins? Would Trump F this up as badly?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera

For those of you who do not know Yellowstone is a supervalcano, which would impact almost all of The US and Canada for a decade if it erupted, to find out the full effects of recommend googling what I’d Yellowstone erupted, let’s say that both Trump and Biden survive the initial eruption.

Please don’t question what decides to pop into my head at the most random times.

[Utah Neolib]

Let’s say that Rather than Covid the main crisis of 2020 is a Yellowstone valcano erruption. Governments take the same kind of action they did during the pandemic who wins? Would Trump F this up as badly?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera

For those of you who do not know Yellowstone is a supervalcano, which would impact almost all of The US and Canada for a decade if it erupted, to find out the full effects of recommend googling what I’d Yellowstone erupted, let’s say that both Trump and Biden survive the initial eruption.

Please don’t question what decides to pop into my head at the most random times.

Depends on if trump handles it well or not

[Chips]

The Yellowstone volcano erupting would be a far more serious problem than COVID. It's so bad, the whole world could go into a long winter.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I doubt the election could be held with most of the country in an apocalyptic state, covered in ashes. Most likely it is suspended or postponed and some sort of emergency government leads the nation for a period of time.

[Duke of York]

I doubt the election could be held with most of the country in an apocalyptic state, covered in ashes. Most likely it is suspended or postponed and some sort of emergency government leads the nation for a period of time.

It can't be postponed. There is no legal mechanism to do so. The new Congress must take office January 3rd and the new president January 20th.

[Chips]

That said, It's unlikely the volcano would erupt without some kind of warning beforehand. That said, that doesn't mean we'd be able to do much to prepare aside from storing away food and hoping for the best.

[new_patomic]

I doubt the election could be held with most of the country in an apocalyptic state, covered in ashes. Most likely it is suspended or postponed and some sort of emergency government leads the nation for a period of time.

It can't be postponed. There is no legal mechanism to do so. The new Congress must take office January 3rd and the new president January 20th.

Be that as it may, there is literally no mechanism to hold new elections in the event of a super volcanic eruption.

Wyoming for one has ceased to be a functioning entity. Colorado, Montana, Utah, and Idaho have all been destroyed by ashfall big enough to collapse buildings in their largest population centers. Logistics systems between much of Chicago and San Francisco are severely disrupted, including large scale damage to agriculture and industrial equipment. The death toll due to the immediate volcanic eruption, ashfall, logistical collapse, post-ashfall silicosis, and then global winter would be unimaginable. The country would be fighting for survival.

So this is very much a case where the government would go "sorry the constitution just doesn't count right now" and most would probably think we're justified in doing so.

[dw93]

I agree that an emergency government would form, that said, I think Trump would likely be deposed by the brass of the military before the close of 2020 due to gross incompetence, and thus said emergency government would be a military run government.

[Skill and Chance]

The Yellowstone volcano erupting would be a far more serious problem than COVID. It's so bad, the whole world could go into a long winter.

This. 

Yellowstone erupting would be on par with the Black Death or a nuclear war.  It's almost a given that less than half the US population would survive. 


IDK how the election would be handled, but assuming the US form of government survives, the most likely outcome by far is legislative appointment of electors in a majority of states.  This would almost be assured in the NW states.  Life would be more recognizable in the SE, where the main issues would be limiting lung damage from aerosols and how to prepare for New England level snowfall for the next several years.

[President Johnson]

The Yellowstone volcano erupting would be a far more serious problem than COVID. It's so bad, the whole world could go into a long winter.

This. 

Yellowstone erupting would be on par with the Black Death or a nuclear war.  It's almost a given that less than half the US population would survive. 


IDK how the election would be handled, but assuming the US form of government survives, the most likely outcome by far is legislative appointment of electors in a majority of states.  This would almost be assured in the NW states.  Life would be more recognizable in the SE, where the main issues would be limiting lung damage from aerosols and how to prepare for New England level snowfall for the next several years.

I fully agree.

It's actually a problem there is no clear mechanism in place for the government to continue in case such a disaster happens.

If an election could be held, it depends on how Trump handles the disaster.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

You didn't specify how Yellowstone would erupt. It's not a given if Yellowstone erupts, it would be a supervolcanic eruption, and if it would, there likely would be major precursors and warnings, it's not going to blow massively out of nothing in complete surprise, but good, even if i'm not right and it would be a supervolcanic eruption.

It would have major impacts for the surrounding states which are republican, they would still stay Republican. The entire US would be engulfed by the ash cloud, and it would travel around the world, but in less high concentrations. The climate would change enormously in short term, and almost everything from modern climate change would be undone for a while, perhaps entirely undone, as the cooling involved with it might return the climate after it's impact is over to pre-industrial normal levels.

It would be a major crisis, and a lot would depend on how the Trump administration would respond. If it's not serious to them, they will be punished for it. I however don't think Trump would minimalize such a volcano eruption as the direct impact itself will be major, but i'm not sure if the Trump administration would be capable enough to deal with it, and it will be easier to create opposition (others however prefer stability during crisis, and therefore go with the incumbent, but Trump isn't exactly a pillar of stability).

I honestly think the Democrats would do better in this TL than the covid TL.

[Skill and Chance]

You didn't specify how Yellowstone would erupt. It's not a given if Yellowstone erupts, it would be a supervolcanic eruption, and if it would, there likely would be major precursors and warnings, it's not going to blow massively out of nothing in complete surprise, but good, even if i'm not right and it would be a supervolcanic eruption.

It would have major impacts for the surrounding states which are republican, they would still stay Republican. The entire US would be engulfed by the ash cloud, and it would travel around the world, but in less high concentrations. The climate would change enormously in short term, and almost everything from modern climate change would be undone for a while, perhaps entirely undone, as the cooling involved with it might return the climate after it's impact is over to pre-industrial normal levels.

It would be a major crisis, and a lot would depend on how the Trump administration would respond. If it's not serious to them, they will be punished for it. I however don't think Trump would minimalize such a volcano eruption as the direct impact itself will be major, but i'm not sure if the Trump administration would be capable enough to deal with it, and it will be easier to create opposition (others however prefer stability during crisis, and therefore go with the incumbent, but Trump isn't exactly a pillar of stability).

I honestly think the Democrats would do better in this TL than the covid TL.

It could get considerably worse than that.  At a minimum, the Feb 2021 winter storm in Texas would be an annual event.  In the extreme, it's 50 years of constant January and basically all US agriculture outside of Hawaii and the Gulf Coast has to be moved indoors or abandoned entirely. 

[Agonized-Statism]

Definitely some kind of military government, but they would try to maintain the illusion of electoralism somehow. I could see David Petraeus being put forward as a yes-man unity candidate if they saw professional politicians as a liability.