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  Rasmussen: Stabenow(D) holding delicate lead over Bouchard(R)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Stabenow(D) holding delicate lead over Bouchard(R)  (Read 1513 times)
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« on: August 15, 2006, 01:02:43 pm »
« edited: August 16, 2006, 04:58:34 pm by overton »

New Poll: Michigan Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-08-10

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2006, 02:17:21 pm »

Let's hope this is an outlier. Seems like Senator Debbie is getting dragged down by the Govenor's negative coattails.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2006, 02:20:50 pm »

Hmmm...  Another poll saying Stabenow lead in single digits and under 50%.  Moving to Lean D right now and awaiting future polling.

Still, I'm pretty sure this is just the expected Bouchard consolidation bounce I was referring too during the primaries
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2006, 04:34:11 pm »

Outlier! Still Bouchard will no doubt get some help from Devos.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2006, 06:43:41 pm »

Maybe Bouchard isn't as dead as once imagined, he's keeps gaining ground, but I still don't think he wins.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2006, 06:58:04 pm »

Maybe Bouchard isn't as dead as once imagined, he's keeps gaining ground, but I still don't think he wins.

Bouchard wins if McGavick, Steele, Kennedy, Ricketts all win -- you get the picture.  Bouchard can't win in this climate against a Democratic incumbent with a great political acumen and a prodigious fundrasing ability.
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nick
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2006, 07:06:16 pm »

For the record (and hopefully someone backs me up on this)...

I have been saying this race will be competitive from the start.  Back when Stabenow was breaking 60%, I said - "Watch this race, its a sleeper."
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2006, 07:36:53 pm »

Bouchard is gathering up the GOP base in michigan. Independents arent going to vote for him. The GOP base is about 45-46% in Michigan. Thats what he will get in November.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2006, 07:37:24 pm »

Also its stAbenow
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2006, 08:05:00 pm »

I don't for a minute think she loses, but that's not to say Bouchard can't make it competitive. Could be that Republicans have gone through the summer polling doldrums, but it seems several polls have shifted a bit toward the Republican candidate. The MO race has even leveled off a bit to be about where it should be.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2006, 10:35:52 pm »

I really doubt this be close. The other poll shows this was an outlier.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2006, 09:15:57 am »

I really doubt this be close. The other poll shows this was an outlier.

Or does this poll show the other to be an outlier?  Don't pick one poll out of two just because you prefer the results.

Looking at the polling page, we have three fairly recent polls:

Date   Poll Source   Spread   Rep   Dem   Ind   Und   M.O.E.  Sample
08-15   EPIC/MRI     D +12   42%   54%   0%   0%   4%   600 R
08-10   Rasmussen D +5     44%   49%   0%   0%   5%   500 L   
08-07   Survey USA D +7     41%   48%   8%   3%   4%   730 R


Looking at that, which one seems to be the outlier?

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2006, 09:51:50 am »

It's not as though 5pts is a tiny lead anyway...
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2006, 11:02:55 am »

Don't forget, he's got the best chance of all, yes I may be biased in saying that but you have to be in NJ to understand the hatred of Corzine and love of his father.  Also, the AG resigning that Menendez wanted appointed really hurts him.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2006, 01:12:23 am »

I really doubt this be close. The other poll shows this was an outlier.

Or does this poll show the other to be an outlier?  Don't pick one poll out of two just because you prefer the results.

Looking at the polling page, we have three fairly recent polls:

Date   Poll Source   Spread   Rep   Dem   Ind   Und   M.O.E.  Sample
08-15   EPIC/MRI     D +12   42%   54%   0%   0%   4%   600 R
08-10   Rasmussen D +5     44%   49%   0%   0%   5%   500 L   
08-07   Survey USA D +7     41%   48%   8%   3%   4%   730 R


Looking at that, which one seems to be the outlier?



You'll have to do better then show me one other poll that has higher lead then this one no less.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2006, 01:41:24 am »

I really doubt this be close. The other poll shows this was an outlier.

Or does this poll show the other to be an outlier?  Don't pick one poll out of two just because you prefer the results.

Looking at the polling page, we have three fairly recent polls:

Date   Poll Source   Spread   Rep   Dem   Ind   Und   M.O.E.  Sample
08-15   EPIC/MRI     D +12   42%   54%   0%   0%   4%   600 R
08-10   Rasmussen D +5     44%   49%   0%   0%   5%   500 L   
08-07   Survey USA D +7     41%   48%   8%   3%   4%   730 R


Looking at that, which one seems to be the outlier?



You'll have to do better then show me one other poll that has higher lead then this one no less.

I was referring to your comment that the EPIC/MRI poll showed that this one is an outlier.
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Nym90
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2006, 09:50:40 am »

Interesting. I'm inclined to believe Stabenow's lead is about 10 points right now. It's still her race to lose, and barring a massive blunder on her part or a massive change in the national climate (highly unlikely at this stage of the campaign) she will win.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2006, 09:52:32 am »

Interesting. I'm inclined to believe Stabenow's lead is about 10 points right now. It's still her race to lose, and barring a massive blunder on her part or a massive change in the national climate (highly unlikely at this stage of the campaign) she will win.
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