New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1383478349528387586?s=20

Well known nutty man saying nutty things. This will truly cement his status as a man of the people.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1383579044969549826?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, sure

[BigSerg]

Can cross a river up to 5m in depth
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1383816234391592961?s=20

https://twitter.com/skywatcherintel/status/1383818800823341057?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1383820775614910464?s=19

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1383820775614910464?s=19

[BigSerg]

"EXECUTIVE: They were planning a coup against Lukashenko - Rumors that he will announce Belarus's union with Russia"
https://twitter.com/andreasmoun/status/1383827151250546703?s=19

[Storr]

Here's a couple recent Atlantic Council articles about Belarus' increasing shift towards Moscow, which one claims are the steps toward a "soft annexation":

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/soft-annexation-inside-the-russian-takeover-of-belarus/

"These denials are an indication that we should be increasingly vigilant about what Moscow is really up to in Belarus. And this is not only the case because it has become something of a running joke that we should never believe anything about Russia until the Kremlin denies it.

The statements by Peskov, Rapota, and Mezentsev are probably technically true. We are unlikely to witness a formal unification of Russia and its smaller western neighbor; nor will we see a full merger of their militaries. We won’t have to. The Kremlin’s strategy is much more subtle than that, and it is succeeding."

The second article is more recent (the first one I linked is from March, 31st) but is shorter and less in depth:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/belarus-is-the-new-front-in-putins-war-against-ukraine/

Luka has long been adept at playing "both sides" (the West/NATO and Russia): "On the sidelines of the February 2015 peace talks in Minsk, a live microphone picked up a conversation between Lukashenka and the then Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who were talking about Putin. “He’s playing a dishonest and dirty game,” Poroshenko said of the Kremlin leader. Lukashenka nodded sympathetically, replying, “I know, I know. Everybody realizes this.”"

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1383859989761060880?s=20

[BigSerg]

The regular Russian Army (excluding reservists) is 280,000 strong.  This means that if the EU figures are right, more than 50% of the regular Russian Army is now massed on the border with Ukraine
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384137431465660434?s=20

[Omega21]

The regular Russian Army (excluding reservists) is 280,000 strong.  This means that if the EU figures are right, more than 50% of the regular Russian Army is now massed on the border with Ukraine
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384137431465660434?s=20

So basically if Putin decides to "protect" the 2 Russian populated "countries", there's little Ukraine could do militarily.

Hopefully, this continues to be just a show of muscle and not a real confrontation.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384129979416399873

[Woody]

Video apparently from Belarus, Vitebsk:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1384196001825656837

[BigSerg]

Volodymyr Zelensky is a member of the party

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1384210231169716235?s=20

https://twitter.com/nigroeneveld/status/1384195765157842946?s=20

[Woody]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

[BigSerg]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1384219975284518914?s=20

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1384219226517348356?s=20

[BigSerg]

As you can see, there is much happening on many levels
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1384220686105792525?s=20

[Omega21]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

[BigSerg]

Mmmm, unification?
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384224457665875969?s=20

[Woody]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

[BigSerg]

Busy day!!!!
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1384234922743791626?s=20

[Storr]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

Interestingly, the electoral districts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts that are under control of the government all voted for the pro-Russian party in the 2019 Presidential election (in the first round anyway, the pro-Russian candidate didn't make it to the second round). So, despite not being under separatist control, just how pro-Kiev the populations of those parts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts is questionable.

2019 Presidential election 1st Round:

[Karpatsky]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution 
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

Interestingly, the electoral districts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts that are under control of the government all voted for the pro-Russian party in the 2019 Presidential election (in the first round anyway, the pro-Russian candidate didn't make it to the second round). So, despite not being under separatist control, just how pro-Kiev the populations of those parts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts is questionable.

2019 Presidential election 1st Round:

This is true but somewhat misleading, as Boiko took both oblasts by pluralities - ~35% in Donetsk and ~45% in Luhansk, and in both oblasts the vote was about 50/50 in the first round when summing up 'pro-Russian' (defined extremely loosely as former Regionaires) and other candidates. And a vote for such candidates is not in and of itself evidence of separatist sympathies, though doubtless some would like to interpret it that way.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/US_Stratcom/status/1384343498825027584?s=19