New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[PSOL]

7serig is most likely an actual bot with the idiocy I'm reading here. Again, this is all a nothing burger.

[Karpatsky]

Consensus in my circles is this is likely for Russian domestic consumption and/or as a stress test of Western solidarity. Russian MO for actual kinetic aggression would preclude preparations this visible.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

The EU imports more than twice as much Saudi oil as does the U.S.

Both are fairly insignificant compared to China, India, and other Asian countries as buyers of Saudi oil.

As for the U.S. being Saudi's military supplier, it gets plenty of assistance from the EU in supplying the Saudis.  The standard Saudi Army rifle is the German H&K G3.

In addition to the F15, the Saudis have plenty of Typhoons and Tornados in their air force.

The Saudi Navy is at present a mixture of French and US equipment, primarily French, and is currently acquiring Spanish corvettes and German patrol boats.

So it's pretty clear that if Europeans want to castigate the U.S. for Saudi arms sales, they've got some things to do first if they don't want to be hypocrites.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

7serig is most likely an actual bot with the idiocy I'm reading here. Again, this is all a nothing burger.

https://www.osce.org/files/2021-04-03%20Daily%20Report_ENG%20AMENDED.pdf?itok=80263

[PSOL]

7serig is most likely an actual bot with the idiocy I'm reading here. Again, this is all a nothing burger.

https://www.osce.org/files/2021-04-03%20Daily%20Report_ENG%20AMENDED.pdf?itok=80263

Ceasefire violations have been a constant occurring feature of the Donbass war.

[President Johnson]

I don't see Ukraine becoming a NATO member in the near future. Before that can even be discussed, the NATO's chapter must be modified since only countries with undisputed territory status can apply for membership. Given that neither Crimea nor Donbass conflicts will be resolved any time soon, there is little chance it succeeds. Putin is clearly eyeing to make this kind of a frozen conflict similar to Transnistria and in the Caucasus.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1379450321576022020

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1379511111184220162?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/1380184751932235778?s=20

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1380223680765120516

[Woody]

I am already getting Georgia 08' flashbacks, there were tons of columns of articles back then predicting a Russian invasion on the months leading up to it, and them mounting up troops at the Southern Millitary District.

Zelensky pushing his troops in Donbass & now publicly asking for NATO membership (a desperate move I might add) is only giving Putin a great opportunity to impress his people once again, and will give him a pretext and a mandate for another campaign in Ukraine, which will most likely be a swift one.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[BigSerg]

"The number of Russian troops at the border with the former Soviet republic is now greater “than at any time since 2014”, when war in eastern Ukraine first broke out and Russia seized the Crimea region, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, said in Washington"


https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1380272707271593991?s=20

[Woody]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665

A top Russian official has warned that Moscow could intervene to help Russian-speaking residents in eastern Ukraine if Ukraine launches an all-out assault on separatists there.

Russia has also been building up troops on the border with Ukraine.

The official, Dmitry Kozak, said that Russian forces could intervene to "defend" its citizens.

"Everything depends on the scale of the conflagration," he said.

He also warned that an escalation could mark the "beginning of the end" for Ukraine - "not a shot in the leg, but in the face".

In Moscow, Mr Kozak likened the current situation of the separatists to Srebrenica, the town in Bosnia-Hercegovina where 8,000 Muslim men were killed by Bosnian Serb forces in 1995.

"If, as our president says, there is a Srebrenica there, we shall probably have to come to their defence," Mr Kozak said. He is the deputy head of Russia's presidential administration.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh s**t it’s happening. It’s blatantly obvious the Russians want to find any excuse for an invasion as possible.
We can not allow any bit of Ukraine to fall to the Russians. We must stand strong against their attempts at recreating their awful empire, and Putin’s expansionism can’t be tolerated. This is eerily similar to the justification dictators such as Hitler used to takeover Sudentenland. While Putin is no Hitler, the point remains.
Appeasement will not work, and a clear line must be drawn now, or we risk endangering all our new allies in Eastern Europe.

[GlobeSoc]

To me, this kind of buildup is odd - if Putin was going for a limited objective I would think he would strike already before anyone has time to react? I was expecting this story to fizzle out a few days ago in any case.

While it is still unlikely because of the high possibility of this being a move for domestic consumption, the fact that Russia is taking its time to build up indicates a larger objective, perhaps a corridor to crimea offensive or even a full scale push to the Dnieper.

Mainly I'm just confused, I don't think he needs a big win that much right now, even with the nalvany thing. The only other thing I can think of is the legislative elections, but shouldn't he be able to ensure a good result for United Russia anyway?

I doubt that a campaign would go quite as smoothly as last time, even if it is a quick one. The conditions for uprisings and little green men don't particularly exist in Ukraine's remaining territory, especially in a lot of the areas they would need to solve the Crimean water situation. Casualty rated would be comparatively high on both sides, with amphibious assaults and tank battles in play.

For the us part, I expect that they won't react initially beyond sanctions and diplomatic channels. If the Ukrainian army holds the Russians back from their objectives long enough, perhaps we'll throw a ton of equipment and advisors at them.

Even if we wanted to, a full scale intervention in Ukraine could risk opportunistic attacks by China against Taiwan in October should we commit too much and the conflict get dragged out too long. Unlike Ukraine, the us is unofficially obligated to defend taiwan and we would look like idiots if we couldn't do so because we were busy helping someone we weren't obligated to.

The only way we'd intervene fully is if an offensive into Ukraine was launched a few days before or after a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and the Chinese have not done that kind of buildup at the moment.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1380548008647987204

[KaiserDave]

Хай живе, вільна Україна!

[BigSerg]

ugh...
https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1380938571180347392?s=20

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1380912125611237376?s=20

[KaiserDave]

Please do not post baseless unsourced garbage from "EndGameWW3"

[PSOL]

Russia would have quickly moved to annex eastern Ukraine already. Nothingburger

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1381980957624967170?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1381992450697392130?s=20

[PSOL]

Wow, it’s really concerning now

[BigSerg]

Wow, it’s really concerning now

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1382358571237662721?s=20
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1382359283459883011?s=20

[Storr]

At this point it doesn't seem like a simple show of force meant to discourage the Ukrainians from taking any actions in the Donbass in the Summer. Moving all this manpower, armor, equipment, and ships (including landing craft) isn't cheap. But why would the Kremlin publicly broadcast all these troop movements if they were planning an actual attack? Isn't it basic military logic to avoid letting your enemies know that you are massing troops and equipment in areas that would be necessary for an offensive attack?