New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/dnvolz/status/1384467147594862595?s=20

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1384493126077849601?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384507769601069056?s=20

[Woody]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

Interestingly, the electoral districts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts that are under control of the government all voted for the pro-Russian party in the 2019 Presidential election (in the first round anyway, the pro-Russian candidate didn't make it to the second round). So, despite not being under separatist control, just how pro-Kiev the populations of those parts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts is questionable.

2019 Presidential election 1st Round:

Yeah. The East-West divide is even more clear from the previous presidential elections. The Oblasts around Odessa & Oblasts east of the Dniepr were the base of the Party of Regions:

2010:

2004:

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384568277582626817?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384579617479135232?s=20

[BigSerg]

Panic!
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1384589084350373890?s=20

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1384591874225278978?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1384594301947162628?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1384594301947162628?s=20

Was just going to post this... I think this just seals the deal for what is going to happen, a new military campaign, the biggest campaign conducted by Russia since the Afghan-Soviet war.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1384594301947162628?s=20

Was just going to post this... I think this just seals the deal for what is going to happen, a new military campaign, the biggest campaign conducted by Russia since the Afghan-Soviet war.

Timeline

Putin speech at 21
Lukashenko meeting and climate summit at 22
Federation council meeting at 23

[Storr]

This is what it seems like to me at this point.
"Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis:

I believe the Kremlin is intent on war with Ukraine because Russia is increasingly confident that the West will not actually do anything about it. We didn’t really do anything about their invasion of Georgia in 2008. They saw our failure to act in Syria and our failure to punish them in any meaningful way after their invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

Our reaction so far [to the current crisis] has been ineffective and confused and is a manifestation of the absence of a comprehensive strategy for the greater Black Sea region."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-ukraine-war-can-the-west-prevent-a-new-russian-offensive/

Do you think Putin cares about NATO and Western threats of "sanctions"? Sanctions and a UN resolution (non-binding, of course) condemning the action is all the Kremlin faced for annexing Crimea. Putin knows sanctions will not hinder his military's capabilities in Ukraine. In my opinion, threatening military intervention on Ukraine's behalf if Russia invades is the only thing that would make Putin reconsider.

[Omega21]

This is what it seems like to me at this point.
"Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis:

I believe the Kremlin is intent on war with Ukraine because Russia is increasingly confident that the West will not actually do anything about it. We didn’t really do anything about their invasion of Georgia in 2008. They saw our failure to act in Syria and our failure to punish them in any meaningful way after their invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

Our reaction so far [to the current crisis] has been ineffective and confused and is a manifestation of the absence of a comprehensive strategy for the greater Black Sea region."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-ukraine-war-can-the-west-prevent-a-new-russian-offensive/

Do you think Putin cares about NATO and Western threats of "sanctions"? Sanctions and a UN resolution (non-binding, of course) condemning the action is all the Kremlin faced for annexing Crimea. Putin knows sanctions will not hinder his military's capabilities in Ukraine. In my opinion, threatening military intervention on Ukraine's behalf if Russia invades is the only thing that would make Putin reconsider.

Well, they're not wrong.

Armed conflict with such a well-armed nation over the already separatist-held areas would not be worth it. Those territories are, de facto already lost.

If they actually started advancing further, however, a sort of Maginot line would need to be put in place.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is what it seems like to me at this point.
"Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis:

I believe the Kremlin is intent on war with Ukraine because Russia is increasingly confident that the West will not actually do anything about it. We didn’t really do anything about their invasion of Georgia in 2008. They saw our failure to act in Syria and our failure to punish them in any meaningful way after their invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

Syria isn't like the other things you mentioned. Russia was not the aggressor in Syria.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Armed conflict with such a well-armed nation over the already separatist-held areas would not be worth it. Those territories are, de facto already lost.

Not only they lost it physically, but also mentally and politically. There is actually a sizable and vocal share of Ukrainians (esp in West) who think that a lot of people who lives there a sort of traitors or just stupid old "Homo Sovieticus" who need to die out. In fact, some think something like this in more broadly term of East Ukraine's population. A bit like in US (but worse) - "how can they still vote for Trump pro-Russian parties after all this ?!!!1111"


I don't believe, that we'll annex Donbass, but I'm very interested to hear what Putin has to say today (now). It was reported, it's be big and very important. Recognize Donbass? Something else? I don't know. But, at the end, like one of the greatest Russians ever - Anton Pavlovich Chekhov - said: if you put the gun on the wall if the first act, it has to be used in last one; otherwise don't put it there  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If someone wants to follow (in English)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Nuh, nothing special re: Foreign Policy. Biggest thing was probably to repeat Lukoshenko's cringe theory that there was a coup against him. Wounder what Putin get in return for this crazy hoax.

Blah blah, red lines. Payback will be tough and fast (alluding Ukraine?).

Not quite Chekhov, but was quoting Kipling about that there are always Tabaquies around Shere Khan. Alluding US being Shere Khan and Poland/Baltics/UK/EU Tabaquies. Is Putin Akela, the Lone Wolf? Then who's Mowgli? Or is USSR/Russia of 90th Akela and Putin is Mowgli?  Questions, questions...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1384861256318951427?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1384904029470343169?s=20

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1384901378225618944?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1384846421749374976?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1384909290436186112?s=20

[BigSerg]

MMM...
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1384949824047431685?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1384946314862022660?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1384846421749374976?s=20

A 2008 Georgia-like scenario does make sense, now that I think about it. The Russian build-up was similarly publicized and meant to pressure a neighboring government into reacting in disputed regions thus giving Russia rationale for intervening in said regions. The difference with the current situation is that Zelensky, unlike Saakashvili, has so far refused to take offensive action despite separatist provocations including shelling government positions/towns (just as happened in Georgia).

From the Politico article linked in the tweet:


"A broad assessment of the military situation compiled by Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and obtained by POLITICO said Russia was conducting “plausible preparations to conduct offensive military operations to ensure water supply to the” Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

It also assessed that there is a “high probability of a Georgia-like provocation against Ukrainian Joint Forces in the East” aimed at seizing more territory in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And it predicted that Russia would deploy the necessary troops and assets to counterbalance the massive, Army-led NATO exercise taking place in the region called “Defender Europe.”

[BigSerg]

It's russian army, so obviously take with a grain of salt

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1385247079711248389?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MMM...
https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1384949824047431685?s=20

Bombing Kiev? What?

[BigSerg]

It's russian army, so obviously take with a grain of salt

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1385247079711248389?s=20

Yeah, Grain of salt!!

https://twitter.com/SoberCDA/status/1385306951731453952?s=20
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1385310603011665921?s=20