Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues (user search)
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  Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues (search mode)
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Author Topic: Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues  (Read 65872 times)
Lumine
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« on: April 11, 2021, 07:21:50 PM »

It's pretty telling that even though there's several candidates with a chance to face Castillo on the 2nd round, most of them would mean pretty appaling match-ups on both ends. Wouldn't be surprised if the winner ends up being impeached within months.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2021, 08:29:07 PM »

Apparently the Congressional election exit polls go like this (I've associated the party with the presidential candidate for clarity, because the party names seem meaningless)
 
Congressional Election (compared to 2020)
Popular Action (Lescano): 10,7% (+0,5)
Free Peru (Castillo): 10,7% (+7,3)
Popular Force (Fujimori): 9,5% (+2,2)
Popular Renewal (López Aliaga): 8,8% (NEW)
Go on Country (De Soto): 8,4% (+5,9)
Alliance for Progress (Acuña): 7,9% (=)
Together for Peru (Mendoza): 7,7% (+2,9)
We Are Peru (Salaverry): 6,4% (+0,4)
National Victory (Forsyth): 5,7% (NEW)
Podemos Perú (Urresti): 5,6% (-2,8)
Partido Morado (Gúzman): 5,4% (-2,0)
FREPAP (None): 4,3% (-4,1)

And the others don't surpass 2%.
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Lumine
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2021, 09:05:42 PM »

Not sure how that shakes out in terms of seats but by my count the non-centrist right have just over 40% of the vote, the centre right, centre left and less ideological parties constitute 27.1% and the combined cultural and economic left have 23.8%, though realistically Gilman and Castillo are on the opposite sides of almost everything so you could easily put the former in the "centrist" basket.

Seems like if Castillo somehow won the second round he'd be powerless to do anything.

Actually, that's not quite right; he might be able to muster the support to ban teaching gender ideology in schools or to suppress gay marriage or something like that.

Seems like a fair assessment. I was watching Peruvian news coverage and someone pointed out that regardless of the second round, Peru was undergoing a "conservative moment", which seems fairly accurate when you account for those congressional balances (such low numbers for the left are virtually unthinkable anywhere else in the continent).

I can't imagine how painful it would be to even try to get anything done with such a consistently unworkable congress (first due to the Fujimorista supermajority, then due to sheer electoral dispersion).
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Lumine
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2021, 08:25:14 PM »

I believe the Peruvian constitution allows for an election to be declared void if the null and blank votes go beyond 66%. Obviously that's not an attainable number, but I wonder if it will help fuel a lot of protest votes against Fujimori and Castillo. After all, it got to 17% in Ecuador...
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Lumine
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2021, 10:49:39 AM »

The nature of the impeachments in the last few years has been "shoot first, ask questions later", which is combined with Peruvian parties not being the least bit shy to u-turn in dramatic ways (to a comical degree) when they believe it suits their purpose. It's not impossible for a popular President to survive the first shot - it did look like Vizcarra was going to survive at first, and even PPK survived the first one -, but from what we've seen so far, if Congress wants a President gone, they'll most likely get him/her almost regardless of the charges.

Having said all that, yes, it's far easier to imagine Fujimori being easier to get rid of on account of corruption, but I wouldn't be surprised if Castillo either overreaches or gets involved in a scandal which is used as justification.
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Lumine
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2021, 07:26:56 PM »

Castillo hasn't done himself any favors with his amateurish campaign (though Keiko and Kenji are not far behind with a number of painfully cringe stunts), but people seem to be underestimating his chances. Not only are the polls difficult to trust with such a vast amount of undecided voters, it's also hard to tell what kind of voters will turn out to vote in the end, and it's really not like the prevailing political mood doesn't favor change as opposed to a perception of things as usual.

Personally, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Castillo does win and does so convincingly, just as I can also picture the narrow victory for Keiko many seem to be expecting.
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Lumine
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2021, 08:54:38 PM »

What with an almost perfect 50-50 split, I have to strongly agree with the narrative that Fujimori and Castillo are truly perfect for each other, and the only candidate the other could have hoped to beat. Had it been any of the other likely contenders against either, Peru would already have a President-Elect and it wouldn't be by a close margin.
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Lumine
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2021, 09:15:36 PM »

What with an almost perfect 50-50 split, I have to strongly agree with the narrative that Fujimori and Castillo are truly perfect for each other, and the only candidate the other could have hoped to beat. Had it been any of the other likely contenders against either, Peru would already have a President-Elect and it wouldn't be by a close margin.
Honestly; I doubt Forsyth, Aliaga, or Mendoza would do any better.

Well, I'd disagree. Mendoza would probably be vulnerable to a fair amount of scaremongering, but I can't see scaring the hell out of a substantial group that's voting for Fujimori solely out of how extreme they perceive Castillo to be. And if it were Castillo-Mendoza, Castillo wouldn't be able to count on the anti-Fujimori vote and I have to imagine the right would vote for her if only to stop him.

Forsyth and López Aliaga, in spite of their glaring, painfully evident flaws, would be free of Keiko's sheer baggage - at least in terms of public perception -, wouldn't be so easy to characterize as more of the same, and would be seen as far less controversial a choice against Castillo. And against Fujimori, both would still hold a clear advantage (López Aliaga because, like it not, he appears to have some residual skill at playing populist, and Forsyth seems adaptable enough).

Let's not forget Keiko is only being competitive right now against an unrepentant Marxist running a chaotic campaign whilst being (fairly or unfairly) portrayed as linked to Sendero Luminoso, whereas Castillo is struggling against the personified embodiment of political corruption. Neither scenario points out towards two political titans.
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Lumine
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2021, 09:57:35 PM »

Well, all it really takes is a corruption scandal or either of them to do something stupid for Congress to assert a moral incapacity to govern. Since its Castillo and Fujimori we're talking about we can assume Congress will have no shortage of excuses IF there's a majority to get rid of them.

My guess is, much like PPK and Vizcarra, that either could survive a first impeachment attempt if they're reasonably popular, and would likely be outed at the second.

Barring some undemocratic move against the Peruvian Congress, I wouldn't bet on either making it through the entire term.
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Lumine
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« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2022, 05:13:06 PM »

Castillo was allegedly trying to flee to an embassy from the Presidential Palace, got intercepted on his car and arrested.

My concern and sympathy for Peru aside - no respite from political chaos - I have to say... what a moron.

What did he think was going to happen? Vizcarra succeeded in dissolving Congress because it was A. Legal (though questionable), B. He stuck to the constitution and C. He had public support. And Castillo seemingly just goes and tries to cosplay as Alberto Fujimori without proper planning and support.
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Lumine
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« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2022, 02:56:19 PM »

Thankfully, Castillo's new lawyer has explained the whole situation: the President was drugged before giving the speech by some shadowy conspirators.
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Lumine
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2022, 07:52:01 PM »

Unlikely as it seems, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the eventual right-wing nominee managing to screw up against Antauro. And christ, that would be frightening.
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Lumine
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2022, 03:58:57 PM »

Regrettably, protests have apparently resulted in four deaths already. It's not looking good at all.

Among other developments:

-Castillo and Betssy Chavez formally charged with rebellion and conspiracy against the state by the Attorney General.

-Castillo and allies double down on the whole "shadowy conspiracy, President was drugged" angle.

-Aníbal Torres becomes a self proclaimed fugitive, goes AWOL in physical terms and keeps claiming via Twitter the removal of Castillo was illegal.
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Lumine
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« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2022, 12:09:46 PM »

We can debate the merits of "moral incapacity" and its potential for abuse, but Congress hasn't done anything illegal or unconstitutional.

Castillo - who, lest we forget, has been blatantly and transparently corrupt - flagrantly tried to rip up the Constitution by taking actions that were nowhere near lawful. That it fell apart immediately is is no way grounds not to consider for what it is, an actual coup attempt.

There really is no comparison, and it is rather disgusting to see several left-wing South American governments close ranks without proper arguments.
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Lumine
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2022, 12:43:07 PM »

Boularte is the Vice President, first in line per the constitution, and ascended into office when the previous incumbent was legally impeached from office. So I don't see how she's an illegitimate head of state, unless we're going with the - rather irresponsible - argument that being elected shields Castillo from the consequences of his actions.

As for the specific case of AMLO, he may indeed not be extreme, but his foreign policy approaches have often been highly questionable. Including, for example, hiding behind a supposed principle of "non-intervention" to avoid questioning or condemning Nicaragua and Venezuela, or his stance regarding the war in Ukraine.

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Lumine
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« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2022, 06:09:39 PM »

Congress is debating over elections in 2024 or late 2023 and reforms or no reforms, with no consensus. Meanwhile, education minister Patricia Correa has resigned in protest over escalating deaths as the military is called in to suppress the protests.

Update: proposal for elections in December 2023 fails, 49-33 with 25 abstentions.

"Suicidal" is just about the kindest thing I can say about failing to bring the elections forward.

From what I've been reading, it failed due to several left and right-wing parties either abstaining or voting it down. Apparently, the justification from the left is that new elections must include a constituent assembly (and/or other lists of grievances), and from the right because they don't want to "cave to violence".

It has been suggested that, rhetoric aside, some Congressmen are using this to get rid of Boluarte, because unless the defeated bill is reconsidered, the matter won't be debated again until later in 2023, meaning that the only available route for new elections would be her resignation.
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Lumine
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2022, 09:17:39 PM »

Since this seems to be a rather persistent and a long term issue regardless of the President, I'll just ask: where the hell do they find these ministers? And, if mediocre people are liable to get appointed to the Peruvian Cabinet at any given moment, why don't they have the common sense to stop using social media to vent any thought that comes to mind?
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Lumine
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« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2023, 06:49:51 PM »

After a break for the holidays, protests came back with a vengeance. Not just in the south - including the by now usual storming of airports - but by reaching Lima over the past couple of days (including fires in the historic center of the capital). Sadly, more casualties.

Thus far Boluarte has held firm - to put it mildly - and refused to yield. From what I can ascertain from the press, a ton of controversy and really violent rhetoric over the protests, their endgame, police tactics, the role of Bolivia (?) and the eventual elections.

I'm afraid it's going to get uglier before there's anything resembling an exit to Peru's political - or rather, institutional - woes.
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