Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I bet on an upset by some random candidate™ that manages a last-minute surge. 

Watch it be Pedro Castillo.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I wonder what the vote share of the "winning candidate" end up being.  I suspect it will be below 20%.

I’d be surprised if it weren’t below 15%, including blank and voided votes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls close in 40 minutes. Exit poll results will come out immediately, while the ONPE quick count will likely take several more hours.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls close in 40 minutes. Exit poll results will come out immediately, while the ONPE quick count will likely take several more hours.

I thought polls close 7pm Lima time and not 6pm Lima time

You’re right. I just assumed they were in the same time zone as me (as they usually are) and forgot about Daylight Savings Time. My mistake.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

Much more likely that Keiko or Lescano gets it, with the rural vote being underrepesented here.

Oh, certainly, just making a li’l joke at the expense of the exit polls (hence the asterisk).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

Yeah, I don't disagree here. The two choices are both pretty terrifying, but I believe if I lived there I'd choose the one less likely to take away my rights. Still sucks that the two paths before a country are, on paper at least, the Venezuelan path vs the fascist dictatorship path. Also sucks that the hope to avoid either rides on an inability to govern.

Given the fact that the Armed forces, Peruvian police, and now-deactivated death squads most likely universally hate PL and given the anti-corruption messaging and support groups they draw support from, I highly doubt Peru will become anything like Venezuela no matter what a hypothetical future with Castillo as president holds.

I of course need to mention that once in office, like most claimed revolutionary or “extremist” movements, they’ll most likely moderate and learn to be pragmatic as such groups like the PCCh and MAS have done in Chile and Bolivia respectively. I get where your coming at, but labeling all nominally leftwing anti-elite movements as Chavista is generally wrong.

On this election, can I just say how embarrassing and weak the campaign of Veronika Mendoza really was this election. She literally went through two electoral lists (BF and JPP/NP) and drove her moderate Humanist-oriented electoral partners to the more radical candidate. Even taking into the fact that Peru is indeed a more socially conservative country and that Castillo and PL have closer indigenous ties, how she didn’t crack 10% even after going through a basically several-year long campaign and all the name recognition given to her shows her deficiencies.

Honestly, given the state of the Peruvian Left after this, it’s going to be interesting where things develop from here and if an all-encompassing alliance is even possible.

To be fair, Mendoza was the target of many more attacks than Castillo throughout the campaign, due to the mere fact that Castillo went largely unnoticed up until the end - but yes, she and JP etc really blew this one.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is there a belief that Castillo will be impeached if the Center-Right forces win more than 2/3 of the seats ?  Surely he has to have done something to be justified.   Namely if he does win 50% of the vote then some of the Center-Right parties must have implicitly backed him making it hard for them to then turn around to impeach him without cause.  As much as I back Fujimori in this race it seems to me that she is much more likely to be impeached if election given the ongoing corruption instigations.  

The idea is that he will likely do something almost immediately.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I wonder if any of the first round candidates will support Castillo (I highly doubt it). I can’t see Mendoza doing anything but calling for a blank/null vote or abstention. Maybe Ciro Gálvez, although I don’t know much about him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

North Korea greatly benefitted from the reforms of KJI; its clear Peru Libre is signaling to the land reforms and independence of North Korea from becoming a vassal of China or the Soviet Union, instead staying clear of revisionism and colonization by getting rid of would-be comprador bourgeoisie, willing to become the overseers of the land. The anti-corruption stance of PL assures me Pedro Castillo, if placed in power, won’t place or won’t be successful in placing an incompetent successor who got it from nepotism.

So far, given the fact that PL will have to work with the Humanists and wider left to get anything done, I’m becoming greatly reassured that they’re going to be historic in benefitting the Peruvian people.

Edit: I’m very concerned they are looking up to KJI and not who I assumed they were talking about, KIS.

lmao

I wonder if any of the first round candidates will support Castillo (I highly doubt it). I can’t see Mendoza doing anything but calling for a blank/null vote or abstention. Maybe Ciro Gálvez, although I don’t know much about him.

Humala maybe. PL is apparently full of ethnocacerists

Also as mentioned before Castillo wants to bust his brother Antauro out of jail.

Doesn’t everyone in the family hate each other ever since Ollanta went normie? I remember Antauro saying Ollanta should be shot once.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Spicy! I know there were polls saying a majority of people said they would never vote for Keiko back before the first-round vote, and I also recently saw a number of about ~30% of people saying the same for Castillo - is that real or did La República make it up somewhere?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Spicy! I know there were polls saying a majority of people said they would never vote for Keiko back before the first-round vote, and I also recently saw a number of about ~30% of people saying the same for Castillo - is that real or did La República make it up somewhere?

I don't know if that specific poll was real, but I can believe it, and such sentiment appears to have carried over. Ipsos also surveyed rejection rates, and they found that 55% said they will definitely not vote for Fujimori, while 33% say the same of Castillo.

Thank you yes; I think this is what I’d seen.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently a new poll (I know) has Castillo leading Fujimori by 61-38

I’m seeing 41-26 from Datum, including undecideds. Same patterns as the Ipsos poll (Keiko leading in Lima and among classes A and B, Castillo everywhere else).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New IEP poll to be out tomorrow, which will apparently have another huge lead for Castillo.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

“Who’s Vladimir Cerrón? Never heard of him.”

Btw, the IEP poll has Castillo at 42% and Keiko at 22%. As was let on, it’s the largest margin out of the second round polls so far.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Update: Castillo’s campaign says he’ll be released from the hospital soon and will participate in the debate. He was having respiratory symptoms (and has been having constant, large campaign rallies outside), but it turned out to just be a throat infection.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

It’s actually today (I forgot how to count, and then forgot that I’d said Sunday)! At 8 PM. No agreement on future debates (presidential, vice presidential, or between advisors).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Didn’t watch the debate because I’m far too busy with finals. Seems like a wash but I don’t know a damn thing. New Ipsos poll out:

Castillo: 43 (+1)
Fujimori: 34 (+3)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-pedro-castillo-lidera-intencion-de-voto-pero-diferencia-con-keiko-fujimori-se-acorta-a-cinco-puntos-segun-datum-noticia-1335544

Datum/Gestión/Perú 21 poll 

Castillo         41 (-2)
Fujimori        36 (+2)

FWIW, this is the first poll after the unofficial debate. 77% are aware of it in some form or another, and 44% say Keiko won while 32% say Castillo won. So I’m sure that’s helping the anti-left vote consolidate around her.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New IEP poll is out

Castillo: 36 (-6)
Fujimori: 30 (+8)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll is out

Castillo: 44 (+3)
Fujimori: 41 (+5)

Castillo still dominating in the center and south of the country, Fujimori now takes the lead in the north and east. In other news, Castillo is said to have three separate options for an official platform and circle of advisors: the original one from the first one (written by Vladimir Cerrón) and two new ones, one written by officials in Nuevo Perú in conjunction with Perú Libre and another written by Miguel del Castillo (son of former aprista Lima mayor Jorge del Castillo) and several members of the Partido Morado and Victoria Nacional. Castillo’s official platform is to be presented tomorrow in advance of the platform/advisors’ debate on the 23rd.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Wasn’t able to get this until just now (been very busy the past few days), but Castillo’s official platform for the second round (which he has still not officially presented) will be/has been written by his party in conjunction with Nuevo Perú. He’s also named several advisors, including the head of the congressional commission that investigated the Lava Jato scandal and one of the lawyers who put Alberto Fujimori on trial in 2008.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Ipsos poll:

Castillo: 37 (+1)
Fujimori: 30 (nc)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win