Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues (user search)
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Author Topic: Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues  (Read 65959 times)
Adam Griffin
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: June 07, 2021, 12:42:17 AM »

With 63% reporting, here are the reporting %s by region:

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Adam Griffin
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Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2021, 01:03:41 AM »

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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2021, 03:27:22 AM »

Yeah, this feels over. The Peruvian tradition of electing extraños to the presidency continues! Even if Castillo pulls out a national win, the two-thirds or so of wealthy expats will do him in ultimately.
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2021, 03:43:22 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 03:48:11 AM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

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Adam Griffin
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*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2021, 07:02:27 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 07:15:22 PM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

The remaining jurisdictions where 10% or more of voting stations have not reported.

Current margin in these 11 jurisdictions:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

(Keiko's winning the most northern 5, while Castillo is winning the remaining 6)

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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2021, 07:10:10 PM »

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

Late edit, but the 11 remaining jurisdictions combined have their currently-counted votes as:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2021, 07:57:32 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 08:05:20 PM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

If the outstanding domestic stations contain a proportionate number of voters compared to what has been counted, that'd suggest roughly 208k votes remaining. If the counted margins in the 11 jurisdictions that had more than 10% outstanding (60-40 Castillo as of my last update; pre-recent update) were reflective of what's to be counted, that'd net Castillo another 42k votes, giving him a Peru-based lead of 152k and a total lead of 133k votes. Keiko would 300k more expat votes to exist & need to win 72-73% of them to pull even.
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2021, 08:09:55 PM »

The real question is of course just how many expat votes remain.

Proportionally/based on stations reporting, that'd suggest around 330k expat votes total (85k of them have already been counted). That'd mean Keiko would need 80% of the remainder to have a shot.

If however there are 300k expat votes outstanding, then Keiko winning 72-73% is quite reachable.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2021, 10:37:04 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 10:41:51 PM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

As of the 99.06% update, here are all provinces with outstanding votes (16 in total):

I went through and weighted outstanding vote in these 16 provinces, matching the margins to the votes in each province already counted.

End result?

Castillo 73.00% (92705)
Fujimori 27.00% (34303)

This would point to a Castillo domestic win of 183,000 votes.

Castillo 8634705 (50.54%)
Fujimori 8451376 (49.46%)


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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2021, 06:16:32 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 06:26:11 AM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

Big US dump (plus some other internationals), bringing Castillo's lead to 86875 votes overall. Around 19k new US votes (plus around 10k from elsewhere). 39% of US stations now reporting.

Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, New Orleans, Oklahoma, SLC, San Antonio & DC are now fully reported (along with NJ from the previous update). Hilariously enough, OKC was the most pro-Castillo of the bunch (71.86-28.14 Fujimori).

Outstanding US stations (all of which are 100% out): Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Hartford, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle & Tampa.

There are 638 US stations remaining, 1386 expat stations outstanding elsewhere and 748 Peruvian stations outstanding.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2021, 06:21:06 AM »

Looks like Chile was the predominant share of the other international dump. Now at 7484 votes (14% of stations), with Fujimori at 50.53 and Castillo at 49.47 overall. That means what dumped was only like ~55% Fujimori...? Not great for her if that holds.
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2021, 06:32:04 AM »

Basically everything left in Chile is defined as "Santiago" (334/337 stations; the other 3 are Concepcion). Fujimori will likely improve. All of the north and all of the south seem to be reporting.
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Adam Griffin
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*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2021, 06:49:04 AM »

Based on station proportions holding steady, there are 185k expat votes remaining. If Keiko won 80%, she'd net 111k votes. Given she's currently down by 87k and by the same exercise there are an average of 55k net Castillo votes remaining in Peru, she'd still lose by 31k votes.

She needs something like 88% of the remaining expat vote to tie it up based on the above modeling. This is all but over unless there is unprecedented turnout in the US and/or an unprecedently severe discrepancy between what has been counted and what will be counted in Chile and Spain (and/or in Peru).
 
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2021, 09:28:16 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 09:42:49 AM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

Another US dump from New York (probably the second biggest US group) has 143/144 stations reporting and 52% of stations nationally reporting (up from 39%). 7,930 new US votes in all.

73.43-26.57 Keiko in NY; drops US margin for Keiko to 77.67-22.33 (from 78.74-21.26 - though obviously expands her US raw vote margin; from around ~19k to ~23k). Eligible US turnout is now 27.8% (down from 28.3%).

This leaves Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Hartford, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle & Tampa (+1 NY station), and Miami is the only likely one remaining to have a sizeable vote.

Based on adjustments and what remains in Peru, Keiko now needs 91-92% of global expats to tie.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2021, 10:22:10 AM »

Los Angeles, San Diego and Phoenix came in: basically 82-18 Keiko combined and around 9.5k votes.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2021, 10:46:05 PM »

We've crossed the threshold of impossibility for Keiko by now: Castillo leads by 92k and based on my calculations, there are only 90k votes remaining (domestic and expat combined). Given the JNE votes can't/won't be win by either candidate overwhelmingly, there is mathematically no pathway for Fujimori at this point.

Hopefully we'll start seeing some media calls soon.
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Adam Griffin
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*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2021, 11:34:25 PM »

With the Miami/Tampa dump in the last hour, Keiko netted 4k votes: Castillo's lead is now down to 88k. But there are still only 85k votes left...
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2021, 12:05:14 AM »

I actually made a weighting blunder on my earlier domestic figures: the situation is even grimmer for Keiko.

Castillo has a projected 24k net margin among the domestic outstanding vote (not 12-13k), of which there are approximately 40k total. This would bring him to a 108k vote margin (84k+24k) before any additional expats are counted. If Keiko gets 65-66% of remaining expat vote, then she can enjoy the privilege of keeping Castillo under a 100k margin.

Unless there are some huge discrepancies with the JNE, Castillo will win by 95-105k votes.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2021, 01:03:25 AM »

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2021, 01:58:25 AM »

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.

Aren’t they already included in the Actas Procesadas? That’s what I was about to say in answer to Nathan’s question - contabilizadas + observadas (sent to the JNE) = procesadas. Am I making a mistake somewhere?

Edit: looking at the ONPE they are definitely included in the Actas Procesadas, but not in the Actas Contabilizadas. So they technically do have left to be counted, but I assume they’re already included in the topline ONPE numbers that we’ve all been working with.

Yes, as far as overall turnout numbers go, they are included. See the formula on the page:



Currently, this produces 84727 and 86488, respectively. This produces a non-JNE number of 97.96%.

Actas procesadas are currently 85965: as a share of 86488, that gives you the 99.40% that's shown at the top of the elections page.
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Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2021, 02:10:01 AM »

Sestak and I (mostly Sestak) has been crawling through Lima (departments and provinces) to see where these JNE stations actually are and how these areas are voting. After doing some estimations, we're both pretty convinced that Lima, Lima JNEs will only favor Keiko somewhere in the 64-66% range: basically identical to the overall provincial vote thus far. If she's not hitting 70% here, then it's damn difficult to see it happening overall.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2021, 02:18:12 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2021, 03:00:49 AM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

Here's the current breakdown of JNE stations:

PERU 898
569 (Lima; 65% Keiko)
214 (Elsewhere; Keiko favored)
115 (Elsewhere; Castillo favored)

EXPAT 340 (Keiko favored)
89 USA
72 Chile
66 Spain
59 Argentina
16 Italy
8 Canada
5 Brazil
5 Japan
4 Germany
4 Switzerland
3 Austria
2 Paraguay
2 UK
1 Belgium
1 Colombia
1 Greece
1 Panama
1 Sweden

TOTAL 1238


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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2021, 03:00:24 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2021, 03:07:15 AM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

Another calculation: weighting each department's share of domestic JNEs to the current margins in the departments. If this were to produce an accurate result, then it's 59-41 Keiko among Peru-based JNEs. The same exercise for expats produced 65-35 for Keiko. All in all, this would give Keiko a 60-40 margin among all global JNEs (way, way under the needed 70% to remain viable, but enough to put Castillo's win within 50k votes or so).

 

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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2021, 09:29:35 AM »

Castillo will widen the margin back to around 90k from the remainder of outstanding Peru votes, and then Fujimori will shrink it again by 40-45k from the JNEs. Still on track for a 45-55k vote Castillo victory.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2021, 10:16:30 PM »

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

So we're on track for a Castillo win of about 40k when all is said and done?

Sestak and I just looked at what's left and this is the current expectation (down from 45-50k this morning).
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