Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Not to count my crabs before they rave but at this point I feel like Keiko loses by the skin of the skin of her teeth, just like against PPK.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Is there a concrete reason everyone seems to have upped their expat turnout expectation?

Twelve or so hours ago the upper end of the bar was like 320-350K total expat vote. Now everyone seems to be operating under the idea that it's 400K+ or something. Has something come out on that?

Doomers gonna doom.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

"All right-wing Latin American diasporas are basically Miami's and Venezuela's with the serial numbers filed off"

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

So, question: what chance is there that the winner of this election, regardless of whether it is Castillo or Fujimori, is impeached in the 12 month period after they take office?

High.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Miami is coming in. Castillo is getting obliterated in it 93-7, but the turnout is only slightly better than in the rest of the US (about 34%).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Another Miami vote dump. Castillo's lead down to 85k.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

ALL REMAINING STATIONS:

La Convencion, Cusco 153
Datem del Maranon, Loreto 23
Satipo, Junin 1

Italy 137
Venezuela 69
USA 53 (Miami 43, Tampa 8, Charlotte 1, Hartford 1)
Japan 42
France 35
Spain 8
Brazil 2

Does this distinguish between "ACTAS PROCESADAS" and "ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS"?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

ALL REMAINING STATIONS:

La Convencion, Cusco 153
Datem del Maranon, Loreto 23
Satipo, Junin 1

Italy 137
Venezuela 69
USA 53 (Miami 43, Tampa 8, Charlotte 1, Hartford 1)
Japan 42
France 35
Spain 8
Brazil 2

Does this distinguish between "ACTAS PROCESADAS" and "ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS"?

No; only counts Actas Por Procesar. This is everything remaining not including the "sent to JNE" precincts.

Are Actas that have been Procesar'd but not Contabilizar'd those that have been sent to JNE?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Lima JNE votes seem to be trickling in. Nothing from that last batch of unreported Cusco precincts yet. Castillo's lead at 67k.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

So we're on track for a Castillo win of about 40k when all is said and done?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Ironic how the the South where Fujimori was defeated by large margins were the same places where the 1990 Fujimori the elder ran fairly strong in in the first round.

Were there barriers to indigenous Peruvians voting that have been removed between 1990 and today?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Could someone more knowledgeable speak to this? I was unaware it was possible to extend the deadline for contested votes, and apparently the judge has ties with Fujimori. Is this a soft coup attempt or is this unfounded?

https://twitter.com/VladEmpanada/status/1403438712642543619?s=19

The JNE plenum apparently just reversed this decision.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

So basically the attempted coup has failed?

To whatever extent it was an attempted coup rather than "just" corrupt and biased election administration, yeah.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

PL party Congress is going on rn. Hopefully some time soon after it’s finished we should have the cabinet ready (although Cevallos in health is all but confirmed, Najar looks strong for PM, and Francke still seems the most likely for finance).

What are Cevallos, Najar, and Francke like?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

So, pretty standard Latin American left-wing #populist stuff so far, with some "don't worry guys I'm not Maduro" thrown in?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

here it is. Given the totality of Japanese monopoly in displacing Korean elites, the “national bourgeoisie” talked about here were common traders and the small landowners whose land wasn’t appropriated during colonization. And the voluntary nature of giving up production centers to the state that were not Japanese colonists and Joseon noble holdouts is vital in understanding why North Korea is the way it is.

This isn't a remotely credible -- you're linking to Marxists.org from 1995. You'll need real sources for anyone to take you seriously.

I think direct quotes from WPK position papers (assuming the quotes themselves are accurate) are actually a perfectly acceptable source for discussions about the WPK's ideology, NCC. I do not agree with the conclusions that PSOL draws about how in-touch with reality some of this stuff is, but marxists.org tends to be a pretty good source on what Marxists have to say about Marxism!

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Betssy "Two-Speed" Chávez seems like a real character in her own right.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Betssy "Two-Speed" Chávez seems like a real character in her own right.

Can’t believe Peru’s first coup since 1992 is also by someone named Chino.

"Betssy Betzabet Chávez Chino" feels ripped from a telenovela adaptation of The Bird's Nest. If I gave that name to a fictional character who was from Peru a sensitivity reader would flag it immediately.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1604288975082070022

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1604270394856599552

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1604269064234598400

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1604267602356080640

I'm guessing the relatively high level of retrospective support for the autogolpe attempt is, uh, heavily informed by subsequent events.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

So was Boluarte always some sort of Keiko Lite sleeper agent within Peru Libre or is she just a weathervane?