Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

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I'm surprised nobody's here considering the election is tomorrow. Polls are all over the place but  Lescano, López Aliaga, Fujimori, De Soto and Mendoza seem to be in the lead, though vote shares shift rapidly. Forsyth appears to have faded hard to right wing candidates and Guzman to Lescano and Mendoza.

Most runoff polling indicates Fujimori would be crushed regardless of opponent and that Lescano would have a strong (but not necessarily insurmountable) lead against everyone else but most other matchups (eg. Mendoza v LA or De Soto v LA) have pretty wide variation. Considering how close the first round polling is you could easily see the right or left get locked out entirely.

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1380979333712408579

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My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

"Gee Brain De Soto, what do you want to do tonight?"

"The same thing we do every night Pinky Fujimori, try to liberalize the Peruvian economy!"

More seriously, De Soto and his party remind me a lot of Novo in Brazil; hardcore libertarian activist types at the bottom, bloodless neoliberals at the top. Still, he has by far the best approval ratings of anyone running so I'd imagine he's got an advantage against anyone except Lescano.

Castillo vs Fujimori might be exciting to watch from afar but not a result I'd want were I Peruvian

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1378843165680136195

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Just before results come in, here's LA casting his vote to a live band playing the Looney Toons theme:

https://twitter.com/Jorgedelama/status/1381281968982229000

Also, Pedro Castillo's horse tried to make a break for freedom while he was riding in to vote

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I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Taking bets now, if it comes down to Castillo vs Fujimori, who wins?

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Apparently the Congressional election exit polls go like this (I've associated the party with the presidential candidate for clarity, because the party names seem meaningless)
 
Congressional Election (compared to 2020)
Popular Action (Lescano): 10,7% (+0,5)
Free Peru (Castillo): 10,7% (+7,3)
Popular Force (Fujimori): 9,5% (+2,2)
Popular Renewal (López Aliaga): 8,8% (NEW)
Go on Country (De Soto): 8,4% (+5,9)
Alliance for Progress (Acuña): 7,9% (=)
Together for Peru (Mendoza): 7,7% (+2,9)
We Are Peru (Salaverry): 6,4% (+0,4)
National Victory (Forsyth): 5,7% (NEW)
Podemos Perú (Urresti): 5,6% (-2,8)
Partido Morado (Gúzman): 5,4% (-2,0)
FREPAP (None): 4,3% (-4,1)

And the others don't surpass 2%.

Not sure how that shakes out in terms of seats but by my count the non-centrist right have just over 40% of the vote, the centre right, centre left and less ideological parties constitute 27.1% and the combined cultural and economic left have 23.8%, though realistically Gúzman and Castillo are on the opposite sides of almost everything so you could easily put the former in the "centrist" basket.

Seems like if Castillo somehow won the second round he'd be powerless to do anything.

Actually, that's not quite right; he might be able to muster the support to ban teaching gender ideology in schools or to suppress gay marriage or something like that.

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I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Looks like this is exactly what happened:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1381462918550577153

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Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

I just don't understand what the appeal of Fujimori is. Even RLA is a wacky character with strongly held beliefs, Fujimori is just a crooked politician.

Hopefully RLA or De Soto still have a chance of taking 2nd.

EDIT: Supposedly the votes from Lima come last, so it isn't out of the question.

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Here's to the official count holding up better than the quick count. Supposedly the last quick count was off slightly:

https://twitter.com/erisliberta/status/1381474930341122048

EDIT: You can keep up with the official count here, complete with a neat map.

The bad sign is that Lima's returns are slightly overrepresented (26% reporting vs 21% overall) but the good sign is that De Soto is doing a lot better in the provinces than I expected, at least of the results so far.

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Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

It's not the first time the forgotten Peru shows its face. Just look at the recent electoral history of Peru and remember how the now discredited Ollanta Humala was perceived as a threat, or look further into the past to recall how Keiko's father defeated Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990.

But yeah, a runoff between Castillo and Fujimori is the nightmarish scenario I was fearing last night. Remember that in cases like this, when they have to make a choice between extreme options like communism or fascism, neoliberals and fake progressives always opt for the fascists

Because when Chavismo is implemented everyone starves. I'm sympathetic to Castillo's voters but if he won and somehow imposed his vision then it would be those very same people left holding the bag. The rich Venezuelans left for Miami, the less rich left for Colombia or Argentina and the poor were left to starve. At least traditional corrupt right wing dictators leave a country behind when their reign of terror is finished. The best argument in his favour is that he wouldn't actually be able to achieve any of his goals which isn't exactly a great sign for him.

Still, I'm holding out hope De Soto or even RLA passes Fujimori into the second round. De Soto's results in southern Peru still seem to be a lot better than expected. In his home province of Arequipa he got 22% and almost beat out Castillo for first while in Cuzco he's got 9% to Fujimori's 4%. If the northwestern and northeastern Fujimorist strongholds don't swing it to her then southern Peru could keep Fujimori out. There are still plenty of votes left from Lima too.

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Even with a fairly high 57% of the votes counted, the race for the second place is still extremely tight

Pedro Castillo (Perú Libre) 16.375% (1,376,193 votes)
Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) 13.422% (1,128,004)
Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) 12.945% (1,087,882)
Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 12.823% (1,077,677)
Every one else is under 9%

Blank votes 10.655% ( 1,102,113)
Null votes 4.858% (502,444)

The blank and null vote results for Parliament and the Andean Parliament (which are at 20%  and 12% of the votes counted) are extremely high, which isn't all that surprising after the events of the last couple of years, at a staggering 37% combined

Up to 66% and HdS still barely ahead with 13.25% to Fujimori's 13.03%.

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Rafael López Aliaga making noises about supporting Castillo and telling his voters not to write him off as a Chavista Shining Path supporting terrorist. Castillo is more socially conservative than Fujimori but still a bit surprising. Then again, RLA really dislikes Fujimori on a personal level so I suppose it isn't that surprising.

Still, it means Castillo has just enough support in the legislature to avoid instant impeachment if he wins the second round.

Also he promised to free the ethnocacerist leader Antauro Humala from jail and to ban abortion and gay marriage.

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Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

North Korea greatly benefitted from the reforms of KJI; its clear Peru Libre is signaling to the land reforms and independence of North Korea from becoming a vassal of China or the Soviet Union, instead staying clear of revisionism and colonization by getting rid of would-be comprador bourgeoisie, willing to become the overseers of the land. The anti-corruption stance of PL assures me Pedro Castillo, if placed in power, won’t place or won’t be successful in placing an incompetent successor who got it from nepotism.

So far, given the fact that PL will have to work with the Humanists and wider left to get anything done, I’m becoming greatly reassured that they’re going to be historic in benefitting the Peruvian people.

Edit: I’m very concerned they are looking up to KJI and not who I assumed they were talking about, KIS.

lmao

I wonder if any of the first round candidates will support Castillo (I highly doubt it). I can’t see Mendoza doing anything but calling for a blank/null vote or abstention. Maybe Ciro Gálvez, although I don’t know much about him.

Humala maybe. PL is apparently full of ethnocacerists

Also as mentioned before Castillo wants to bust his brother Antauro out of jail.

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If the question was which candidate would be worse if they actually were able to push their agenda that'd be Castillo pretty much without question. Peru under Fujimori was corrupt and poor but it was like Switzerland compared to Maduro's Venezuela.

But that isn't the question, so it becomes more complicated. Castillo threatens to shut down Congress but would he really have the popular support to get away with it? Hugo Chávez was an officer so he won the support of the army, Castillo doesn't really have those connections. Plus, to my understanding the army is quite anti-communist thanks to several decades of fighting the Shining Path. It seems like he'd have a tall mountain to climb to actually achieve his goals.

The best case scenario would be if Castillo won but was too unpopular to get anything done or else had a Humala style change of heart once in office. Fujimori winning is bad no matter what and she could probably finagle support for her corruption from the legislators but even the worst Fujimori administration wouldn't lead to millions of Peruvian refugees fleeing for their lives. Good thing I don't have to make that choice.

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

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Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

Being in power is corrosive to your reputation, especially in corrupt countries and especially in corrupt countries where the internet is becoming widespread. Things go bad, the status quo is blamed and the most credibly anti-status quo forces are the most extreme and thus the least connected to current ongoing corruption. Bolsonaro wasn't clean of corruption initially because he was such an upstanding guy but because he was so extreme and fringey that nobody wanted their money connected to him. Similarly, Peru Libre's candidates aren't very corrupt (excluding the ones with actual power like Cerrón) because the guy who thinks North Korea is a model to emulate or the lady who speaks of having critical journalists imprisoned as some minor party nobody don't exactly look like great returns on investment.

Ecuador is incredibly illustrative: Lasso in 2021 beat Arauz in almost all of the provinces Correa won in 2006 and vice versa. It's like that old rotating statue meme.

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

For a somewhat bolder prediction I also think Petro will win in Colombia unless some dark horse comes out of nowhere.

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Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

Grading on a Latin American curve, sure. By modern international standards, not exactly. By my ideal standards, not even close.

Market systems have to start from the bottom up, whereas the usual neoliberal tack in Latin America has been to appeal to the ruling elite to impose a market system from the top. This might help with capitalizing companies and attracting international loans to capital cities but that's all irrelevant to some guy living on a mountain that's about to be evicted so the government can collect fat taxes from a new mine.

De Soto's idea of formalizing property for the poor was a great one even if he's a bit of a lizard person. It would also help reduce regime uncertainty; knowing that the government will seize land for you or divert huge sums your way for contracts is great for a corrupt international corporation but not so good for the small and medium sized companies that make the backbone of a healthy economy and won't get the same favoritism. A consistent and fair system means people can actually invest and expand in their own communities without worrying about it being stolen by the local authorities or criminals (but I repeat myself). The direct size of the state isn't as relevant when there are death squads, guerrillas and paramilitaries (the latter less so than in Colombia) that go out kidnapping people, stealing stuff and blowing up infrastructure.

Ending the War on Drugs would also be a great boon, albeit again less than in Colombia or Bolivia. Formalizing valuable former black market sectors of the economy like coca growing would be hugely beneficial to farmers and would undercut criminal wealth.

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snip

It's definitely an uphill battle, but I think we're just starting to see a new model for electoral success start to emerge. Namely, libertarian populism. Radical libertarianism is anti-political anyway, and abolishing your own job or weakening your own power isn't appealing to the typical crooks that litter the political parties of corrupt countries. Radicalism also serves two useful purposes: it keeps out odious elites and it attracts the sort of true believers who can punch far above their weight, what Lenin called "vanguardists". When someone is willing to put their body or even life on the line it can inspire otherwise jaded people. No regular liberal would risk arrest to give the finger to the government like Daniel Fraga did and no corrupt politician would get tortured by the police and respond by redoubling his efforts like the kids in Argentina have.

The most pure example of this is Milei in Argentina who hasn't compromised his purity in the slightest and seems to be in a position to do well, but of course there's still plenty of time until that election and the polls could be garbage. So in terms of proven electoral success the best example I can think of (who I'm sure you've heard of) is Mamãefalei. Running on a mostly solid libertarian platform and with no real institutional help he almost managed to pass Bolsonaro's lackey with almost 10% of the vote and a lower middle class base of support. Once Bolsonaro is gone a sizable portion of his support (plus some of the other right/centre-right parties) will likely be within reach of anti-systemic libertarians too, and you don't need much to start getting such candidates within spitting distance of making the runoffs of important elections like the SP governor/mayor.

The biggest disadvantage (that you indirectly brought up) is that the benefits of libertarianism aren't immediate, but the upside is that it works just as well regardless of scale. So it isn't necessary that libertarians win national elections outright, decentralization combined with solid candidates could give enough influence to implement good policies at the local level. Ideally such a place would be a kind of reverse Venezuela that would provide a model that would make libertarian ideas more palatable even to non-radicals. One of the biggest obstacles is the idea that being wealthy is the result of Europeans just being inherently superior and Latin Americans are just doomed to corruption and poverty forever. Once a counterexample exists then even mainstream parties will have to consider alternatives besides the status quo, Marxism or mindlessly copying whatever the Europeans/Americans are doing.

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Apparently on the one hand a lot of previous ballot spoilers have moved towards Fujimori because of all the crazy things they've heard about PL and on the other Castillo's leaners are a bit less solid because he's been recently swinging all over the place ideologically like a weathervane. We're still on track for a narrow Castillo win though.

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New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Update: Castillo’s campaign says he’ll be released from the hospital soon and will participate in the debate. He was having respiratory symptoms (and has been having constant, large campaign rallies outside), but it turned out to just be a throat infection.

From Idice, the gap apparently keeps narrowing:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1388162981712773126

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A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

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A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Is it confirmed that it was SL? I’ve heard that it’s not and there are other possibilities as well (the Quispe Palominos, etc).

Officially SL declared a truce years ago after Guzman was captured, but a major portion of the membership broke off and continued operating to this day. This was apparently committed by a splinter group called the Militarized Communist Party of Peru.

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I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

Nothing I've seen from the polls has really changed my view. I still think Castillo wins narrowly thanks to underpolling of his base.

Might be a little closer than 54-46 though

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It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

Why is it that the old Fujimori poors rural base seems to no longer exist?

As Buritobr pointed out this election is more comparable to 2011 than 2016, and if the exit poll's geography is correct then Fujimori's rural support hasn't gone anywhere. If anything she's doing slightly better in that respect since she managed to win Ucayali. The thing is that poor Fujimorists are disproportionately concentrated in Greater Lima, the Northwest and to a lesser extent the Amazon.

Also with respect to the argument about Arequipa, Fujimori was never going to do well there even in the event of a win. De Soto did disproportionately well there but it's worth noting that he's actually from Arequipa and that actually matters in Peru (just look at Acuna in La Libertad). Those votes aren't just going to all transfer to Fujimori even if she has De Soto's endorsement.

I still think like Castillo is more likely to be underpolled than Fujimori but I guess we'll see

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If the present trend holds exactly then Castillo will squeak ahead in the Peruvian vote but lose overall thanks to the Expat votes. Peru could have an even closer election than 2016 if that actually happens.

An interesting thing I noticed, though, is that Fujimori is currently overperforming the exit poll in the Amazonian provinces (Amazonas, Loreto, Ucayali, etc). It's possible that this was a genuine polling miss but my guess is that the cities are reporting early and the (presumably pro-Castillo) jungle vote is just starting to show up. As an aside, I find it interesting how the mountain provinces have gone 80%+ for Castillo when the jungle provinces are much closer.

In other words, Castillo should probably outperform his current numbers in those provinces and he might actually accelerate his increase towards the end. So he still has a path to victory, albeit a narrow one.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This election is so close that it could go to penalties.

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If the present trend holds exactly then Castillo will squeak ahead in the Peruvian vote but lose overall thanks to the Expat votes. Peru could have an even closer election than 2016 if that actually happens.

An interesting thing I noticed, though, is that Fujimori is currently overperforming the exit poll in the Amazonian provinces (Amazonas, Loreto, Ucayali, etc). It's possible that this was a genuine polling miss but my guess is that the cities are reporting early and the (presumably pro-Castillo) jungle vote is just starting to show up. As an aside, I find it interesting how the mountain provinces have gone 80%+ for Castillo when the jungle provinces are much closer.

In other words, Castillo should probably outperform his current numbers in those provinces and he might actually accelerate his increase towards the end. So he still has a path to victory, albeit a narrow one.

and it looks like this is basically what happened, since Fujimori's lead in Ucayali and Loreto has steadily dropped as more votes have come in.

As things stand right now Castillo leads the Peruvian vote by just under 101k votes with 1.5% left to report. Meanwhile the amount of votes Fujimori could pick up from the international vote ranges  anywhere from 50k to 225k, but realistically I think Castillo almost certainly wins if his final lead in Peru is over 150k and he very likely wins if it's over 125k.

I'd say Castillo's odds of victory are over 75% but it all comes down to how pro-Castillo the outstanding jungle vote is and how pro-Fujimori the outstanding expat vote is, since in both cases they're going to be much more disproportionately one sided than the currently counted votes.