Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Red Velvet]

Whoever goes against Pedro Castillo in the runoff wins. Peru is one of the most conservative countries in the region alongside Colombia, I really doubt they will elect a leftist.

Imagining if it’s Fujimori again lol. RIP Peru.

[Red Velvet]

Castillo’s best chance is definitely against Fujimori.

I wouldn’t put my bets on him, but he could benefit from having an outsider status and less power in congress, making people on the fence think he will be powerless if elected, unlike Fujimori who can be more perceived as a well-known figure from the corrupt political establishment AND also her father’s dictatorship. I think he can capture an idea of hope and change better considering how abandoned Peru currently is.

That said, it’s hard to see Peruvians electing a Marxist-Leninist who supports Venezuelan government. Personally, I don’t care about such scaremongering tactics and in most places it would likely be an easy Castillo vote, but it’s Peru we’re talking about. Just like Colombia with the FARCs, many many in Peru have reservations about the left because of Sendero Luminoso history. You just know that kind of stuff has a bigger weight in Peru.

I imagine both Fujimori and Castillo would have the strongest “antivote” so it’s hard to have an idea. It’s probably the scenario where both candidates would have their strongest chances, against each other lol.

[Red Velvet]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

[Red Velvet]

Does Castillo get >40% in the runoff?

Very possible, considering how anti-Fujimori sentiment is strong. He also benefits from being outsider.

Anyone else would likely destroy him but against Keiko it could be close. Just not sure how much. Depends on how much he signals to the center, I guess, since it will be a very polarized battle.

[Red Velvet]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

I just don't understand what the appeal of Fujimori is. Even RLA is a wacky character with strongly held beliefs, Fujimori is just a crooked politician.

Hopefully RLA or De Soto still have a chance of taking 2nd.

EDIT: Supposedly the votes from Lima come last, so it isn't out of the question.

Old people who liked Fujimori dictatorship in the 90s, I guess. Populist right has the appeal we all know even when they’re super corrupt.

Besides, while Colombia may be the most economically right-wing country in South America, Peru is extremely conservative socially speaking, maybe the most conservative one in the continent. While still swinging kinda more towards neoliberalism in the economy.

If the far-right has success in so many places nowadays, including in South America, it just makes sense it would be strong in Peru too. Especially in a scenario where there is no clear option and the country feels abandoned.

Just look how even the left with power in Peru (Castillo) tends to have strong conservative rhetoric on social issues, against gay marriage, abortion and “gender ideology”. It feels like practically a consensus in order to be electorally viable in Peru. No wonder the more progressive Veronika, who I was rooting for, died on the beach.

And the Fujimori right has a history of sterilizing thousands of Indigenous women against their will when they were in power, as part of their family planning program to address the “Indian problem”. So, it’s quite a complicated situation to be fully at anyone’s side, although for me Castillo definitely is the lesser evil even if still very far from ideal IMO.

[Red Velvet]

It’s pretty clear by the vote trend that Fujimori will surpass the center-right candidate for 2nd place.

News are already reporting that will be a Castillo vs Fujimori showdown.

[Red Velvet]

Not surprising at all that RLA prefers Castillo over Fujimori. The only reason I assumed the vote would be close is because I already thought many of his voters would go to Castillo. Probably the same for Veronika Mendoza ones but even those may be more resistant to both Castillo and Fujimori.

People forget that Castillo still represents the anti-establishment in this election promising big change, while Fujimori IS the corrupt establishment in Peruvian politics. The anti-system sentiment for RLA more populist voters can be easily be stronger than any policy-oriented opinion.

Add to that the fact Lescano voters will probably be in the middle, likely won’t favor in big numbers either Castillo or Fujimori. What base Keiko can significantly expand from? I imagine it’s De Soto voters and mostly because of an anti-Castillo vote.

We really need polls because this could end up being as close of an election like the previous two. I don’t underestimate anti-leftist sentiment in Peru but I also don’t underestimate anti-Fujimori one either. Polls will help clear whether anti-leftist or anti-Fujimori sentiment is stronger. Because that’s what will decide the election.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah this has potential to become an Indigenous people of Peru vs privileged elites in metropolitan Lima so easily.

Where Indigenous people are in Peru:



Places with >50% indigenous population, in the south near the Bolivian border, ALL voted for Castillo in big numbers. He also won in his province located in the North.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LetiziaRB/status/1381947141254430720
Also here are the separated results between Lima province (larger area) and the Metropolitan Lima (the capital):

https://mobile.twitter.com/botonazul/status/1381448522747248643
The larger province behaved just like the overall results, with Castillo 1st and Keiko 2nd.

The capital chose De Soto and RLA. Keiko finished 3rd and Castillo didn’t even make top 5!

It’s like the city of Lima is a completely different world from all the rest of the country. These are shocking gaps.

[Red Velvet]

I still don't understand this poll and the results

Peru, CPI poll:

"What kind of regime do you believe is the worst that could happen to the country?"

Chavista: 35%
Communist: 24%
Populist: 12%
Ultraliberal: 8%
Fascist: 5%
Ultraconservative: 4%

Unsure: 12%

Fieldwork: 6-11 March 2021
Sample: 1,300

The polls didn’t even show Castillo in the top 6!

It’s clear that polling companies in Peru oversample Lima and are not that representative of the whole country, especially Indigenous communities.

[Red Velvet]

The other thing with not having any base of support in the Lima area is that about 40% of the vote comes just from the Lima province...

Castillo won in Lima province though. It’s metropolitan area (the capital) that didn’t even know who he was.

Metropolitan Lima is probably still 33% though.

[Red Velvet]

Yup, I knew people shouldn’t underestimate the massive power of anti-Fujimori sentiment. There are probably even some anti-leftists voters who would rather become a Venezuela or Cuba than to be forced to vote for that woman regardless of their right-wing ideological allignement.

Besides the Fujimori brand being toxic and the hate being already deserved because of that, add to that the fact she also is a woman associated with corruption running in Peru. It’s almost like a far-right way more corrupt Hillary Clinton in a more conservative country where her father was a dictator and now is in jail.

The misogyny alone would be enough to make people personally look at outsider Castillo as a more friendly option. Add all the rest and this 58% vs 42% margin doesn’t surprise me at all.

That said, I think it may be closer to the two previous elections than polls are currently showing. Campaign is just starting. It could still go either way.

[Red Velvet]

I expect a lot of those wanting to spoil their ballots now will break for Keiko Fujimori. Still; seems like it’s going to take massive work to get Keiko elected, either in enthusiasm for her or in the eventual stealing of this election if normal electoral means are off the table.

Maybe, but I’m not too sure about that. From the same poll...

Pedro Castillo:
Definitely will vote for 34%
Could vote for 18%
Probably won’t vote for 8%
Definitely won’t vote for 33%

Keiko Fujimori:
Definitely will vote for 20%
Could vote for 15%
Probably won’t vote for 5%
Definitely won’t vote for 55%

That is a (current) ceiling of 52% to Castillo and only 35% to Fujimori. Meaning he also has more potential of growth.

What could benefit Keiko is how the campaign develops and how successful she is at attaching Castillo’s image to something more negative than hers. She could win but she will have to work hard.

[Red Velvet]

That’s a relevant support for Keiko, even if I don’t really think Pedro Castillo voters are people likely to care about Vargas Llosa lol. If anything, people who care most likely didn’t even know who Castillo was before the results. But some “in the fence” undecided center and center-right Anti-Fujimori voters from Lima could feel more comfortable in supporting her after this.

Pedro Castillo responded:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PedroCastilloTe/status/1383559854996873217

“This is the real Peru, the Peru of the invisible and of the fighters; a country that was never known by Vargas Llosa, who from his mansion in Spain continues to believe that Peru is a colony.

From Jaén, Cajamarca, the people of Peru are committed to a democratic country.”

[Red Velvet]

IRL tankies are often very socialy conservative sharing with many on the right the idea that social progressivism is an elite plot to divide and suppress working classes.

Not inherently, I agree these concepts are not contradictory at all indeed. But the way these conversations happen currently is a strategy from the richest to silence the working class material struggles, yes.

You cannot just pretend there isn’t a divide all over most places in which people from the big cities vote for the left when it’s about social progressivism, while economically they don’t tend to care much about inequality as they are generally speaking more economically privileged and have more infrastructure to attend their needs.

While people from the interior or smaller towns mostly feel abandoned in regards infrastructure and if they vote for the left, it’s because of the economic policies focusing inequalities as they want to have access to same services and have better quality of life.

City elites treat these people and their basic human needs as invisible regardless who they are and who they vote for. Because the real issue for them isn’t about conservatives vs progressives, they don’t really care about that, only maintaining their class privileges.

The forgotten ones can be the Indigenous people in Peru outside Lima who are the backbone of country but are treated like a weird foreign entity by the media.

They can be rural French voters who see their communities being abandoned and small business closed as the years pass as the only place where opportunities are in the big cities.

They can be US working class voters who don’t live in the coast and suffer with deindustrialization effects and get angry that no solution to their problems is offered by the political establishment, who uses a woke political speech only to create an image that they care about people without having to  propose real big change that affects their life.

The narratives to delegitimize these people’s existence are always the same, regardless if they’re more progressive or conservative; black, indigenous or white; male or female; etc.

It doesn’t matter who these people are to accept that their voices, their wounds and their demands should be heard. They are human beings with struggles like everyone else.

If most social progressives really care about inclusion like they say, they have to include the interests of the poor as well and make them participate on conversations instead of excluding.

People are more open to deconstruct themselves and their conservative beliefs when they have quality education background, good infrastructure surrounding them, job opportunities, when they don’t have to worry about their health or if their house is under risk of getting flooded, that kind of basic human rights things that STILL don’t exist in many places but high-education elites like to pretend it doesn’t because it’s outside their bubble of privilege.

Even in the US, the same arrogant woke progressive whites who love to call everyone racist, homophobic, etc are the same ones who on the top of all their privilege often criticize Latino communities and Black communities for sometimes being more conservative on some matters and call them sexist and other stuff.

Like the movie “Parasite” said, it’s sooooooo easy to be a good person (or a “woke progressive”) when you don’t have anything else to worry about.

[Red Velvet]

Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

[Red Velvet]

Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

Being in power is corrosive to your reputation, especially in corrupt countries and especially in corrupt countries where the internet is becoming widespread. Things go bad, the status quo is blamed and the most credibly anti-status quo forces are the most extreme and thus the least connected to current ongoing corruption. Bolsonaro wasn't clean of corruption initially because he was such an upstanding guy but because he was so extreme and fringey that nobody wanted their money connected to him. Similarly, Peru Libre's candidates aren't very corrupt (excluding the ones with actual power like Cerrón) because the guy who thinks North Korea is a model to emulate or the lady who speaks of having critical journalists imprisoned as some minor party nobody don't exactly look like great returns on investment.

Ecuador is incredibly illustrative: Lasso in 2021 beat Arauz in almost all of the provinces Correa won in 2006 and vice versa. It's like that old rotating statue meme.

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

For a somewhat bolder prediction I also think Petro will win in Colombia unless some dark horse comes out of nowhere.

Pretty much why anticorruption as a main political rhetoric is very effective as a destructive weapon. It blames only one person or a specific group for broad structural problems and always favors the outsiders in the extremes, be them left or right.

Besides, it never addresses the root of the problem and the extremes are eventually forced to be part of the system once they get into power and have to stop riding on the coast of such easy penal populism and moral personalism.

Every time it was used here in Brazil by a candidate as their single BIGGEST appealing narrative, it has always led to disaster:

- Jânio Quadros in 1960 —> Military dictatorship in 1964 that lasted 21 years
- Collor in 1989 —> Renounced in 1992 after people’s bank savings were confiscated
- Bolsonaro in 2018 —> Destruction still in development

Funny how it’s always after the cursed 29 years gap that these anticorruption populists appear. It’s the time it takes for a new generation to emerge and not have any idea how these cheap discourses always work and for older generations to forget.

At least for now it seems that Bolsonaro will only last one year more, who knows what terrible and even worse stuff could be reserved for 2047.

Politicians need to have at least have a project if they want to lead the country, regardless of ideology. All these just had the anticorruption populism: Say tons of sh**t about how the establishment is so corrupt and then get elected without doing anything or even having the intention to do so.

[Red Velvet]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

Yup, there’s a difference between pacific alliance of Colombia-Peru-Chile (+Ecuador as outsider) and the Atlantic one of Brazil-Argentina-Uruguay-Paraguay (+Bolivia +Venezuela as outsiders).

The international right always wanted to treat the first as a big model of progress as if they were a paradise but they have similar problems as everyone else. Biggest difference is that the poor are much angrier and more inclined to revolution, it seems with Chile and now Castillo’s Peru. These are the two countries where to me the left appeared to surge out of nowhere, even it wasn’t really out of nowhere.

Colombia is different because it appears to work on it’s own different way. They will never change too radically in current circumstances and geopolitics even if recent developments are similar to the rest of South America.

[Red Velvet]

Weird how polls show similar % to Castillo but the numbers of Keiko vary a lot depending of the polling institution.

Castillo
41,5% IEP
41% Datum
42% Ipsos

Keiko
21,5% IEP
26% Datum
31% Ipsos

IEP has Castillo +20
Datum Castillo +15
Ipsos Castillo +11

Disconsidering null/blanks/undecideds the margins become even more volatile because of this uncertainty of Keiko numbers:

IEP is Castillo 66% vs Keiko 34%
Datum Castillo 61% vs Keiko 39%
Ipsos Castillo 58% vs Keiko 42%

[Red Velvet]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala.  

Grading on a Latin American curve, sure. By modern international standards, not exactly. By my ideal standards, not even close.

Market systems have to start from the bottom up, whereas the usual neoliberal tack in Latin America has been to appeal to the ruling elite to impose a market system from the top. This might help with capitalizing companies and attracting international loans to capital cities but that's all irrelevant to some guy living on a mountain that's about to be evicted so the government can collect fat taxes from a new mine.

De Soto's idea of formalizing property for the poor was a great one even if he's a bit of a lizard person. It would also help reduce regime uncertainty; knowing that the government will seize land for you or divert huge sums your way for contracts is great for a corrupt international corporation but not so good for the small and medium sized companies that make the backbone of a healthy economy and won't get the same favoritism. A consistent and fair system means people can actually invest and expand in their own communities without worrying about it being stolen by the local authorities or criminals (but I repeat myself). The direct size of the state isn't as relevant when there are death squads, guerrillas and paramilitaries (the latter less so than in Colombia) that go out kidnapping people, stealing stuff and blowing up infrastructure.

Ending the War on Drugs would also be a great boon, albeit again less than in Colombia or Bolivia. Formalizing valuable former black market sectors of the economy like coca growing would be hugely beneficial to farmers and would undercut criminal wealth.

Even if we basically mostly disagree ideology-wise, I understand your positions.

IMO To convince lower income people of such policies you defend is the biggest obstacle and should also be the biggest goal. Precisely a big obstacle because it’s related to a rhetoric mostly adopted by the elites to advance their interests and ignore everyone else, as if they were not members of the same system.

Latin American elites are even greedier than regular ones you find in the world and the poorer sectors of society tend to be ignored more strongly, they’re practically completely invisible. They don’t participate on the system because it’s not lucrative for private sector to reach out to them, while public sector depends on the government goodwill and most regular leaders don’t like to invest much in remote areas, focusing in the big urban center infrastructure (or maybe not even in those!).

That’s where big government promises and communism become appealing to these groups. Someone finally appears talking to these people and actually addresses their everyday material concerns. They have children to feed and can’t afford food, maybe their houses are falling apart, there aren’t enough doctors and teachers in the local hospital/school, that kind of thing.

So when someone makes these people the protagonists of their campaign and promises to use their power to solve it all with practical quick solutions (Hire more teachers, build more hospitals, create more social programs), people adore because they want solutions for the present, not long-term future. They need to survive now in their perspective.

Not to mention that besides the class resentment, these people are looked down by big urban areas people who talk about them as if they were all uneducated dumb trash. There were Keiko supporters in Lima angry after 1st round results saying stuff like “Alberto’s mistake was not sterilizing enough of these Indigenous people”.

If a free-market libertarian really believes their ideas are the best for the poor and ever wants to appeal to these people (and not only big city wealthy elites) it has to necessarily break the hierarchical system and put low income people interests as priorities.

In practice, not just lip-service, otherwise they will never gain electoral trust. The left isn’t perfect at solving these people’s problems but it’s the better option that appeared so far. It gained their trust with (small, true) immediate solutions.

Problem is, the elites will never allow that to happen. Even with those “radical leftists” that eventually get elected, they usually are forced to move way to the center once they get in power in order to politically survive and stay in power. If anyone else from any other ideological group committed to do the same, it would be pushed to “moderation” or even sabotaged by them in the same way. The system is rigged.

That’s because the elites don’t simply just want good quality of life for themselves. They want status, they want and need others to be miserable and condemned to poverty because it means they will always have options to exploit and that “competition” will always be suppressed.

In the moment more social inclusion happens and the poor start to participate more in the system, these people get angry. They will complain that their airports are starting to look like bus stations; that their shopping malls are becoming less well-frequented; that the son of their maid is frequenting the same college as the family daughter.

That is stuff I already heard people say and they were upper middle class, they weren’t even part of the rich, the real elites. The real rich don’t even have to interact with these people, as they have private jets and helicopters, stuff like that. But because everyone cares so much about status, upper middle class sees themselves as rich, as part of the elites. Lower middle class sees themselves as average because they’re “better” than people living in poverty. And for those in the absolute bottom, they just want to survive every new day.

[Red Velvet]

This is getting close, as expected, but it’s happening earlier than I thought.

[Red Velvet]

Lol I think someone in the media probably just asked if he supported Gender Ideology and he answered “I am against it”. Which is no different than what all left leaders in Latin America who have a low income base of voters but with socially conservative background would say, especially like, 10 years ago.

Even Lula here never was into talking much about that stuff even if he was LGBT friendly, because these cultural war talking points are designed to be a trap to the left. If you go too into the “progressive” route you scare your working class base and media will paint you as “too woke and extreme left” and if you go the “conservative” one you scare the more intelectual and academic base and media will paint you as “too extremist to the right on social issues”.

Best answer politicians can have is deflect the question and give a non-answer. But trend for the future is for most of these topics start being non-controversial since they will become more of a consensus in society.

[Red Velvet]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Extremists like to polarize with opposite side extremists in order to present themselves as the only option. They probably are rooting for Fujimori in secret so that they have an argument and “someone to fight”, in order to justify their existence to their audience.

Sendero Luminoso is seriously one of the worst groups in the region, no wonder some Peruvians still are traumatized by it.

[Red Velvet]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

I do think it was a far-left group with the obvious intention of stimulating Keiko’s election, because the only opportunity they have of being relevant is fighting against a Fujimori government. Fascists in power is always the strongest argument in favor of communism.

I mean, they killed a small group of people (how many, only 6?) to “send people the message of not voting Fujimori”. If you’re part of a terrorist group like Sendero Luminoso or any other, you must know that never intimidates people at all and it will actually embolden them to do the complete opposite of what you’re “ordering” them.

Kinda like Bush was the man of the dreams of Terrorists in the Middle East post 9/11 because he validated their arguments about the US. It’s old strategy.

[Red Velvet]

I do think Castillo could’ve won if Keiko didn’t start growing so fast just after the 1st round vote. I don’t think it will be that close now, maybe a 54/46 vs 55/45 divide favoring Keiko? idk

[Red Velvet]

Whatever happens I will worry for Peru. Castillo in power will only energize the right to high heavens while I also doubt he will get stuff done and the other one is Keiko Fujimori.

I’m feeling a close Keiko victory. I imagine she will get most voters that decide on the last minute. The growth trend is what matters the most to indicate where these last minute voters will go to.