Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[MRCVzla]

OG Title: Peruvian presidential and legislative elections (April 11 and June 6, 2021)

Peru goes to the polls in less than 2 weeks to elect a President, their two Vice President ticket, 5 Andean Parliament members and formally renew again the unicameral 130 seat-Congress, after the crazy year who 2020 was, started with a snap parliamentary election who elected an even unpopular Congress and a succesful impeachment who got three Presidents in a week, in a mid of the COVID pandemic who hit hard the country and also affected negatively the current caretaker administration of Francisco Sagasti. 18 candidates are in the Presidential ballot, while in the Congress, no reelection is allowed neither for the MPs elected in 2016 and 2020. Corruption, economy, inmigration (specially with the Venezuelan refugees) and the pandemic management are the main issues of the campaign.

If no Presidential candidate gets 50%+1 votes, the top two candidates will go to the runoff who will take place two months later, in early June. For the Congress, the 130 members are elected in 27 multi-member constituencies with open listsand parties must cross the 5% nationwide threshold or 7 seats in one district to get seats allocated with the D'Hondt method.

The main candidates (in order of current polling):
Yonhy Lescano (Popular Action): Former congressman with support in rural highland areas. Elected in the party primary under a left-wing platform opposing many right-wing decisions taked by his party..
Rafael López Aliaga (Popular Renewal): Businessman with no major political experience (previously was a councilor in Lima City), runs in a ultraconservative platform self-proclaimed as the "Peruvian Bolsonaro" . The party is the rebrand of the old National Solidarity Party of ultra-corrupt former Lima mayor Luis Castañeda.
George Forsyth (National Victory): This former soccer goalkeeper was until his nomination the mayor of the Lima district of La Victoria as independent, he was leading the opinion polls at the start of the campaign under a anti-corruption platform but his prospects has fallen quickly due to unexperience. The party who supports is also a rename of the minor conservative religious National Restoration party.
Keiko Fujimori (Popular Force): Alberto Fujimori' daughter is running for a third time. Still a controversial figure, but with lower support due to being involved in the Odebrecht scandal (and arrested pretrial until a conditional release) and with her parliamentary caucus' obstructing the Kuzcynski and Vizcarra administrations. Also still vows for give a pardon to his father if she wins.
Verónika Mendoza (Together for Peru): second run for the left-wing New Peru leader running with a accord with JPP alliance. She placed third in 2016 election and continues to hold resistance from some voters due to her socialist platform.
Hernando de Soto (Go on Country): A renowned economist with a technical profile but he has past with the Fujimorists. In the last months has established a "shadow cabinet" to offer an alternative in order to concurr and apply De Soto' proposals during the pandemic crisis.
César Acuña (Alliance for Progress): Former mayor of Trujillo and governor of La Libertad province, he tried to run in 2016 but was disqualified for alleged vote buying. Parliamentary' voting record of his party and contradicting his campaign rhetoric has damaged their prospects.
Daniel Urresti (We Are Peru): Former Interior Minister in Humala administration, was the most-voted candidate in the 2020 Congress election, but his image is also negative being under investigation for the murder of a journalist during his Army general' days.
Pedro Castillo (Free Peru): A left-wing candidate, former leader of the national teachers union, gained attention as led teachers strikes during PPK' presidency but also gained controversy for engaging virtual meetings with former Sendero Luminoso members, rising lately in the polls.
Julio Guzmán (Purple Party): Former public administrator, with a failed 2016 run due to irregularities, but also with negative image due to a personal love affair scandal. His centrist party is currently in government under Francisco Sagasti.
Ollanta Humala (Peruvian Nationalist Party): the only former President running, remained unpopular throughout his presidency and affected he and his wife in the Odebrecht scandal (also served pretrial detention and still under investigation)
Daniel Salaverry (We Are Peru): An architecht with local politics experience and former Congress President, the main attractive for his candidacy and party platform his having former president Martín Vizcarra as the main parliamentary candidate for the Metropolitan Lima district.

Other minor candidates:
Alberto Beingolea (Christian People's Party): Former congressman with a successful career as sport journalist.
Marco Arana (Broad Front): Former bishop and congressman, was vicepresidential ticket of Verónika Mendoza' 2016 run.
Rafael Santos (Peru Secure Homeland): Businessman expert on agrarian exportation area.
José Vega (Union for Peru): Congressman who runs in the ethnocacerist platform who Antauro Humala leads.
Ciro Gálvez (National United Renaissance): Junín-based lawyer who runs in a conservative platform.
Andrés Alcántara (Direct Democracy): Left-wing populist candidate who presides the FONAVI housing pensioners association, campaigning for the full pension devolution achieved previously via referendum and a full state-reform with a new Constitution.

During this week (March 29, 30 and 31) were the Presidential debates hold by the National Jury of Elections (JNE). In the Congress elections, Popular Action (AP) despite being damaged for the brief presidency of Manuel Merino after the Vizcarra impeachment, still tops the preferences on the opinion polls, followed by the christian-agrarian FREPAP party who was the surprise of the 2020 snap Congress election, as well Meanwhile Vizcarra' We Are Peru (SP) or Fujimori' Popular Force (FP) are looking "well" in the polls, around other 5-to-7 parties are over or around the threshold according the polls, some of them may depend of their presidential performance (Lopez Aliaga' RP, Forsyth' VN or De Soto' Avanza País) to make it in the Congress.

[MRCVzla]

The close is very tight and will be interesting tomorrow and next week to watch who wins the 2 spots in the runoff. Two polls has been released today and show the rise of the leftist candidate Castillo, CPI shows him in 2nd place vs. Lescano and is leading the Ipsos poll vs. De Soto who also had a rise lately.

However, some Peruvians abroad will not cast their votes tomorrow due to COVID restrictions, second wave of the pandemic is hitting hard the region, including Perú itself, many presidential candidates has tested positive for COVID like Forsyth or the UPP candidate Vega in recent days. In this election, Peruvians abroad will have for first time their own Congress constituency (separate from Metropolitan Lima)
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1381080322855555073

[MRCVzla]

Castillo rising was unexpectable until a week ago, seems he attracted rural votes and from other leftist/catch-all candidates (mostly Mendoza, Lescano or Forsyth). Will be a bloodbath if their rival in runoff will be Keiko, is the only runoff scenario in she can win. From a map who saw from the exit poll, Castillo leads in the poorer/rural areas (mostly in the South), De Soto has strong support in metro Lima.
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1381457997780545538

Oh, and from the earlier exit poll for the Congress, the follow seat projection according Ipsos:
Free Peru (PL) 28
Popular Action (AP) 23
Popular Force (FP) 16
Aliance for the Progress (APP) 14
Popular Renewal (RP) 11
Forward Country (AvP) 10
Together for Peru (JP) 8
We Can Peru (PP) 6
National Victory (VN) 5
We Are Peru (SP) 5
Purple Party (PM) 4

Guzmán/Sagasti party will probably lost party register, there is also a threshold for that (5 seats). FREPAP (currenly below the threshold) seems a one-hit-wonder until last minute surprise from the count.

[MRCVzla]

While official ONPE' quick count is slow under 20%, the Ipsos quick count is now at 90% and well...
Castillo 18.1%
Keiko 14.4%
López Aliaga 12.4%
De Soto 10.8%
Lescano 9.7%
Mendoza 7.9%
Urresti 5.8%
Forsyth 5.5%
Acuña 5.5%
Guzmán 2.2%

ONPE results page for anyone interested: https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/EG2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/T

[MRCVzla]

IPSOS quick count (100%)
Pedro Castillo 18.1%
Keiko Fujimori 14.5%
Rafael López Aliaga 12.2%
Hernando de Soto 10.7%
Yohny Lescano 9.8%
Verónika Mendoza 7.9%
Daniel Urresti 5.9%
George Forsyth 5.6%
César Acuña 5.5%
Julio Guzmán 2.1%
Alberto Beingolea 1.9%
Daniel Salaverry 1.7%
Ollanta Humala 1.5%
José Vega 0.8%
Ciro Gálvez 0.7%
Marco Arana 0.4%
Rafael Santos 0.4%
Andrés Alcántara 0.3%

[MRCVzla]

IPSOS quick count for Congress (100%), with seat variations to exit poll
Free Peru 12.8% (32, +4)
Popular Force 12.1% (24, +8)
Popular Action 9.7% (21, -2)
Alliance for the Progress 7.2% (14, =)
Popular Renewal 9.9% (13, +2)
Go On Country 7.3% (7, -3)
We Can Peru 6.0% (5, -1)
We Are Peru 5.8% (4, -1)
National Victory 5.0% (4, -1)
Together for Peru 6.6% (3, -5)
Purple Party 5.1% (3, -1)
FREPAP 4.3%

PM and VN (Forsyth) are around the threshold, JPP and SP are also below the 5-seat threshold to keep party registration. For majorities trends more favourable to the right bloc, but the left-to-centre bloc (mostly PL+JPP+SP+PM) needs more than 44 seats (1/3 of the chamber) to avoid any impeachment process (in case of "Peter Castle" wins the runoff).

[MRCVzla]

It seems FREPAP underperformed pre-election polls.  Most likely this is because they did not have a Prez candidate at the top of the ticket.  Any reason why they did not run a Prez candidate ?

They didn't showed interest to run a Presidential candidate by their own, I believe they preferred being focused on Congress campaign rather than a Presidential run, this may damaged their prospects as the campaign progressed, but also in the last month has been many changes respect voting preferences for Congress, according trends, most FREPAP voters may switched to similar "rural/conservative" options Avanza Pais, Popular Renewal or even Peru Libre (or some others voted null/blank)

[MRCVzla]

Current Congress projection (77% of the votes counted, 95% processed)
Free Peru (Castillo): 37
Popular Force (Fujimori): 24
Popular Action (Lescano): 17
Alliance for the Progress (Acuña): 15
Popular Renewal (López Aliaga): 13
Go On Country (De Soto):  7
Together for Peru (Mendoza): 5
We Can Peru (Urresti): 5
We Are Peru (Salaverry/Vizcarra): 4
Purple Party (Guzmán/Sagasti): 3

National Victory (Forsyth) is currently at 4.88%, there are still more than 30% of votes (2 million voters) to be counted in metropolitan Lima. If the party manages to cross the 5% threshold, will get 4 seats (2 in Lima taken from RP and JPP, 1 in Loreto from AP and 1 in Pasco from APP). At early morning Purple Party was above the threshold but they managed to surpass as the count continues.
FREPAP is currently at 4.68% and if surpasses the "valla", may only get 2 seats (1 from Lima and other from Junín). The count from the new Abroad Vote constituency is the most slower of all districts with just 27% counted and a lot of absentees as expected.

[MRCVzla]

Aaand there will be an Impeachment motion debate against Castillo: 76-41 with 1 abstention (from PL caucus)
In favor: FP, AP, APP, Avanza País, RP, PP, SP and 1 independent
Against: PL, Perú Democrático, JPP and 2 independents

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1503436075234205697

[MRCVzla]

A new election for Speaker of the Congress in order to found the substitute of the disgraced Lady Camones will be today Monday at 10:00 am local time (presential vote), at the deadline to register candidatures (yesterday Sunday) there was no consensus neither at the opposition or government-backed blocs to present united list. The candidates are José Williams Zapata (Avanza País), Luis Aragón (Acción Popular, supported also by the Bloque Magisterial), Carlos Zeballos (Integridad y Desarrollo), José Balcázar (Perú Bicentenario), José Elías (Podemos Perú, supported also by Somos Perú) and Guido Bellido (Perú Libre).

Also yesterday was a TV debate between the candidates of the upcoming Lima municipal election, the third overall but the first one with the presence of the current frontrunner, Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú), very tense debate overall marked by taunts, mega-projects promises and combating crime with drones, armed watchmen and tons of patrol cars in the streets. The other main candidates are fellow Urresti' former 2021 presidential candidates Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) and George Forsyth (now under Somos Perú), also but distant according to the opinion polls is former second VP (under Humala' first year) and former MP Omar Chehade (APP).

Election is on 3 weeks at October 2 (same date as the Brazilian general election' 1st round) for the renewal of the Metropolitan Municipality of Lima who composes the Metropolitan Mayor (FPTP, no runoff) and the 39-seat Provincial Council (D'Hondt without threshold but with majority prize for the most voted list), the Municipality has a 4-year term, there are 7.5 million of registered voters.

Also on the same date are the Regional and Local (provincial and district level) elections in all the country, 25 regional governors (with their deputy governors), 196 provincial mayors (including the Lima metro) and 1694 district mayors plus a lot of regional, mayoral and district councilors are being renewed, in the Regional elections if the 1st place does not achieve more than 30% of valid votes, there will be a runoff, inmediate reelection is not allowed since 2018.

[MRCVzla]

Luis Aragón and José Williams have advanced to the second round of elections for speaker. Williams had by far more votes but Aragón is consolidating the left and center (Perú Libre dissidents, Somos Perú).

Just in: Williams (Avanza País) has been elected as the new Speaker, 67-41 of Aragón (Acción Popular) in the 2nd round. 3 blank votes and 13 null/void.

[MRCVzla]

This was today, completly overshadowed by the Brazilian election.

Ipsos' rapid count at 80.9% for Metropolitan Lima mayoral election, very close race:
Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular): 26.1%
Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú): 25.9%
George Forsyth (Somos Perú): 18.8%
Elizabeth León (Frente de la Esperanza): 10.4%
Omar Chehade (Alianza para el Progreso): 7.1%
Gonzalo Alegría (Juntos por el Perú): 6.5%
María Elena Soto (Avanza País): 3.5%
Yuri Castro (Perú Libre): 1.7%

Exit poll at 5pm was López Aliaga 26.8%, Urresti 25.8%, Forsyth 19.4%, León 8.7%, Chehade 7.5%, Alegría 6.5%

Also many other local races around Lima and all Perú happened as well the governor' races, many of them with civic/independent candidates leading.

[MRCVzla]

Official results at 100% of processed acts/97.6% of counted acts for Metropolitan Lima election: https://resultadoserm2022.onpe.gob.pe/ERM2022/EleccionesMunicipales/RePro

Renovación Popular (López Aliaga) 26.29%
Podemos Perú (Urresti) 25.38%
Somos Perú (Forsyth) 18.94%
Frente de la Esperanza (León) 10.93%
Alianza para el Progreso (Chehade) 7.11%
Juntos por el Perú (Alegría) 6.38%
Avanza País (Soto) 3.51%
Perú Libre (Castro) 1.47%

Turnout: 78.61%

Ipsos' rapid count at 100% projected a tie between Aliaga and Urresti at 25.9%. Urresti has conceded and will not challenge a recount. Aliaga has not presidential intentions anymore and is not very sure to meet with President Castillo as he seems as a corrupt.

Full list for Lima' elected district mayors: https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2022-estos-son-los-virtuales-alcaldes-de-los-distritos-de-lima-segun-onpe-noticia-1436622

I see a few former presidential candidates ran. is the mayor post powerful? Is it seen as a potential springboard for higher office?

From what i seen, is very important by the peruvian media, the most important "nominal" elected post aside the Presidency, many Lima mayors in the past had run for the Presidency like Lourdes Flores or the late Luis Castañeda without very luck, and always can see important or mediatic politicians running (like this year). Of course winning is not a guarantee of a stable administration as much of the past Lima mayors end with corruption-related problems and can resign or be impeached during the term.

[MRCVzla]

Crisis continues and the pression to Boluarte' resigns goes more every day as the deadly protests, she wanted to Congress to move again the date of the early election to later this year, but the impopular parliament has not reached an agreement on the issue, the problem its more on the left who wants elections AND a constitutional referendum/Constitutional Assembly/whatever to change the Constitution.

[MRCVzla]

Peruvian Congress has approved the return of bicameralism, as an "express" constitutional reform, they needed 2/3 in two votes, the first one in November and the second was today: 91 for, 29 against, 1 abstention in its second vote, the new Senate will be composed by 60 members meanwhile the Congress will still be at 130 seats, also its returning the inmediate reelections for legislators, all this in force at 2026.

More info at RPP Radio news site (in Spanish): https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/bicameralidad-en-el-congreso-legisladores-aprueban-en-segunda-votacion-cambio-a-sistema-con-dos-camaras-noticia-1539043

Also there are changes at the Council of Ministers, due to a controversy thanks to an audio leak to links into a young woman who obtained State contracts after meetings with him, PM Alberto Otárola has resigned, President Boluarte has nominated diplomat and former representative at the OAS Gustavo Adrianzén has the new PM.

Boluarte currently has a disapproval of 83.7% according a CPI opinion poll.