Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[kaoras]

I bet on an upset by some random candidate™ that manages a last-minute surge. 

[kaoras]

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

Or Fujimori, or Lescano, or Lopez Aliaga. And here is how Veronika Mendoza can still win.

But yeah, is so freaking obvious that Castillo won't win a second turn.

[kaoras]

I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Taking bets now, if it comes down to Castillo vs Fujimori, who wins?

Fujimori, she has fallen a lot since 2016 but Castillo is THE candidate she could beat. I don't expect that to be particularly close either.

[kaoras]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

[kaoras]

Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

Yes, Castillo has very little support within the military and is more likely to be coup'ed than arrange a coup. Yes, Fujimori is very likely to attempt something authoritarian if/when the Congress attempts to continue the cycle of impeachment comes for her. This however does not excuse the fact that Castillo would also try something authoritarian via different tactics. Populist uprisings, civil unrest, and the intimidation of legislators via mass organization of supporters to descend on the capital are just some of the tools historically available to a radical leader when s/he lacks support within established institutions. Ignoring the many other tools available to wannabe authoritarians to just suppose the military is fallacious. If Castillo says he will not surrender power then he fully intends to not surrender power.

The past few years should have not only discredited the technocrats and Western-approved moderates, but show the fractures in Peruvian society. There needs to be leadership that can earn the respect of the people.

Dude, if Pedro Castillo does any of that, he’ll be impeached in no time after a protest ending the government. The last few months, from PL and Castillo flip-flopping and gaining the support of FA and the Humanists, shows just how fragile and pragmatic PL actually is. Personally, I am concerned about Peru and the humanitarian situation there regardless of who wins—I’m an internationalist LGBTQ supporter after all—but by all accounts Pedro Castillo and PL are less likely to turn the country into the hellscape that would be another Fujimori turning the country into their own fiefdom to multinational lords. The most likely things to actually pass under PL meanwhile is more money to education, infrastructure, and some sort of amnesty plan for child soldiers of Shining Path.

I don't know where people got the idea that Castillo is some ultra social conservative (Just kidding, I know exactly where it comes from, never change technocratic liberal media). The original plataform of Perú Libre said absolutely nothing regarding LGBT issues or marriage or anything and was in favour of the status quo regarding abortion, which is, well, exactly the same position as almost everyone else who ran for president

[kaoras]

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

I'm pretty sure that US expats votes overwhelmingly for Biden over Trump and Canadians who live abroad tend to vote Liberal or NDP and NOT Tory.  and Israeli expats tend to be more centrist and less rightwing than Israelis in Israel

Even in Latin America the Chilean expat vote is left wing due the exiles of the dictatorships.

[kaoras]

A friend of mine has the following model:

🇵🇪 ACTUALIZACIÓN PERU 🇵🇪

-> El voto que queda se estima que podría netear 189k votos a Castillo
-> Castillo está 17k abajo en Perú a secas
-> El extranjero debería netear 109k a Fujimori

PREDICCIÓN: Castillo+63k (+8k) (from last update)

[kaoras]

It was a 2% from the Expat vote in the last update. The other 3% was in a previous one.
Edit: Also, a reaaaally small % from Cusco was counted, 3% in La Convención. Castillo leads 87-12

[kaoras]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

Argentina and Uruguay best American countries, the lowest % of the Fujimori vote is there.

Uruguay - 55% Fujimori
Argentina - 57%
Brazil - 59%
Bolivia - 65%
Ecuador - 66%
Colombia - 72%
Mexico - 73%
Paraguay - 74%
Canada - 76%

Considering the only country in the world that Castillo won was NORWAY, I think, that’s pretty good result for the Southern Cone. Hopefully Chile follows suit.

He also won Cuba 73-26 hilariously enough

[kaoras]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

Argentina and Uruguay best American countries, the lowest % of the Fujimori vote is there.

Uruguay - 55% Fujimori
Argentina - 57%
Brazil - 59%
Bolivia - 65%
Ecuador - 66%
Colombia - 72%
Mexico - 73%
Paraguay - 74%
Canada - 76%

Considering the only country in the world that Castillo won was NORWAY, I think, that’s pretty good result for the Southern Cone. Hopefully Chile follows suit.

He also won Cuba 73-26 hilariously enough

Of course he did. I want to know who the 26% of Peruvians who moved to Cuba and voted for Fujimori are - did their experiences there really disappoint them?

Diplomatic envoy?

Probably, there were like 30 votes.

[kaoras]

When are we expecting the votes from Spain and the US to start coming in as both countries will supply a significant number of votes?

The unofficial count in Spain Was 60-39 for Fujimori. Chile is also a big chunk that has nothing counted

[kaoras]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

[kaoras]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Except this result is still surprising - Humala only received 23% of the vote in Arica in 2011. There were far fewer eligible voters then so I wonder if many Peruvian migrants settled there recently.

Maybe the recent political developments in Chile have soured Peruvians with right wing politics.

[kaoras]

Japan and Italy could get 90% Keiko based on the early reports, right? Spain 85%. France is the outlier, with 60%. But I’m not sure about those numbers. I’m going based on the results seen too (Portugal could be similar to Spain, France to Germany, etc)

Keiko could have more than the necessary to win. Especially if US gets behind her like Mexico and Canada did (both 75%).

No, there is absolutely no reason to believe that Italy or Spain will give Keiko that level of support. In 2011, Italy gave Humala 37% of the vote and Spain gave Humala 35% of the vote. Thus far, results in Europe have basically matched 2011.

Less than 100 people will vote in Portugal or something like that so it doesn't matter. France should give Castillo around 40%.

As I said, the unofficial counts in Japan and Spain already happened. Keiko won 91-8 in Japan and 60-39 in Spain

Also, given the Arica results, even if Santiago is more favorable for Fujimori I doubt she wins a lanslide here (hell, winning at all is debatable) and Chile is one of the largest places with 177k habilitated voters.

[kaoras]

Anybody?

What explains Fujimori's strength in the eastern/Amazonian portion of Peru? 

My guess would be that those departments have a relatively low % of indigenous people. Uyacali (16%) and especially Loreto (9%) are way below the national average (24%) and is clear that Castillo did better among indigenous.

[kaoras]

Current global map:

Castillo won Egypt, Jordan and Croatia

[kaoras]

Anyway it seems like Pedro Castillo is now deeply unpopular given recent polling. Why has this happend ?

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1523779312193015808

I answered this on the Chile thread that is currently near the bottom of the 1st page of this forum. Check it out!

[kaoras]

Vice President Dina Boluarte will become the first female president of Perú.

[kaoras]

I noticed that ex-president Humala is gaining in the polls. What are the major differencies between Humala and Castillio?!

Is not Ollanta Humala, is Antauro Humala, leader of the movement "Etnocacerismo", which you could summarize as "Nazism with Andean characteristics"