Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

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FREPAP doing so poorly is confusing and shows that there probably is an undercount in rural areas. I guess we will wait and see.

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While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

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While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

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While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

Yeah, I don't disagree here. The two choices are both pretty terrifying, but I believe if I lived there I'd choose the one less likely to take away my rights. Still sucks that the two paths before a country are, on paper at least, the Venezuelan path vs the fascist dictatorship path. Also sucks that the hope to avoid either rides on an inability to govern.

Given the fact that the Armed forces, Peruvian police, and now-deactivated death squads most likely universally hate PL and given the anti-corruption messaging and support groups they draw support from, I highly doubt Peru will become anything like Venezuela no matter what a hypothetical future with Castillo as president holds.

I of course need to mention that once in office, like most claimed revolutionary or “extremist” movements, they’ll most likely moderate and learn to be pragmatic as such groups like the PCCh and MAS have done in Chile and Bolivia respectively. I get where your coming at, but labeling all nominally leftwing anti-elite movements as Chavista is generally wrong.

On this election, can I just say how embarrassing and weak the campaign of Veronika Mendoza really was this election. She literally went through two electoral lists (BF and JPP/NP) and drove her moderate Humanist-oriented electoral partners to the more radical candidate. Even taking into the fact that Peru is indeed a more socially conservative country and that Castillo and PL have closer indigenous ties, how she didn’t crack 10% even after going through a basically several-year long campaign and all the name recognition given to her shows her deficiencies.

Honestly, given the state of the Peruvian Left after this, it’s going to be interesting where things develop from here and if an all-encompassing alliance is even possible.

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https://twitter.com/hezbolsonaro/status/1381813619684372480?s=21
Unsurprising

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Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

North Korea greatly benefitted from the reforms of KJI; its clear Peru Libre is signaling to the land reforms and independence of North Korea from becoming a vassal of China or the Soviet Union, instead staying clear of revisionism and colonization by getting rid of would-be comprador bourgeoisie, willing to become the overseers of the land. The anti-corruption stance of PL assures me Pedro Castillo, if placed in power, won’t place or won’t be successful in placing an incompetent successor who got it from nepotism.

So far, given the fact that PL will have to work with the Humanists and wider left to get anything done, I’m becoming greatly reassured that they’re going to be historic in benefitting the Peruvian people.

Edit: I’m very concerned they are looking up to KJI and not who I assumed they were talking about, KIS.

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I expect a lot of those wanting to spoil their ballots now will break for Keiko Fujimori. Still; seems like it’s going to take massive work to get Keiko elected, either in enthusiasm for her or in the eventual stealing of this election if normal electoral means are off the table.

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Keiko Fujimori not only went against a then popular president, but her party of yes-men almost split between her and her brother. These past few years, the only support base she has are the hardcore Fujimorists, while even the middle class is sick of the never-ending Keiko-Kayak leading the nation into more turbulent waters.

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Are there really Kenji partisans? I figured he was completely finished after he was caught on camera bribing legislators to support PPK. I suppose that even if his political party no longer exists, his past supporters might still be anti-Keiko.

Who even knows at this point? By next election in like a year and four months Kenji Fujimori might be leading the third largest party.

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Only the Peruvian Left and unspooked Indigenous people would vote for Castillo, and that’s not enough to win this election. We’re seeing Keiko Fujimori consolidate the Urban non-indigenous, non-Left vote and the conservative vote in rural areas, i.e. the majority of the population.

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Only the Peruvian Left and unspooked Indigenous people would vote for Castillo, and that’s not enough to win this election. We’re seeing Keiko Fujimori consolidate the Urban non-indigenous, non-Left vote and the conservative vote in rural areas, i.e. the majority of the population.

Fujimoro has her own baggage, I wouldn't be suprised if around 10% of people leave a blank vote or turnout hits record lows. I still think Castillo is favoured, Fujimors shawdow looms long.

The bolded does not contradict what I said.

Castillo is nominally an anti-finance-and-extraction-management candidate who’s indigenous; that also carries baggage.

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https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19

Very easy choice now.

Literally most of this was already on their platform. Seems like they realize that they’re polling s••te lately and need to stress their platform instead of the assumptions around them.

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Well, well, well.

https://twitter.com/DanielDiMartino/status/1395219722715684865

https://elcomercio.pe/politica/guillermo-bermejo-si-tomamos-el-poder-no-lo-vamos-a-dejar-nndc-noticia/

If there’s one thing that can be learned from the Peruvian experience, is that it is an ungovernable country.

What Castillo wants is irrelevant to the facts on the ground that he needs to rely on allies in the legislature and on the streets in order to govern. The Humanist party, Broad Front, and Veronika Mendoza’s list among others won’t just up and capitulate all power to the Free Peru party. The purple and liberal lists would abandon him.

There’s also the fact that his opponent is most likely going to use the state to crack down on opposition and Peruvian democracy with much less institutional opposition from the security force, so the compromise here is clear.
While this is a nothingburger and won’t move things, it still doesn’t change the fact that Keiko is definitely going to win one way or another. The consolidation of the anti-indigenous, anti-socialist sections to Peruvian society are all going to go for Keiko anyway and it’s clear from polling and #trendz across Spanish-speaking America wide that there isn’t enough support to make the Left win aside from Bolivia. Pedro Castillo is going to poll in the mid 40s and his movement will lose considerable support in the probable next election in a few months, that is, if Peru doesn’t become a dictatorship. What is certain is that most of the Peruvian Left—JPP, PL, and possibly both FA and DD—will attempt to work together to prevent any vote splitting.

I would have preferred this year to have both Peru and Chile be led by the Left, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that there needs to be more work to be done in creating the necessary infrastructure to take power for the next set of elections.

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Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

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Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

Yes, Castillo has very little support within the military and is more likely to be coup'ed than arrange a coup. Yes, Fujimori is very likely to attempt something authoritarian if/when the Congress attempts to continue the cycle of impeachment comes for her. This however does not excuse the fact that Castillo would also try something authoritarian via different tactics. Populist uprisings, civil unrest, and the intimidation of legislators via mass organization of supporters to descend on the capital are just some of the tools historically available to a radical leader when s/he lacks support within established institutions. Ignoring the many other tools available to wannabe authoritarians to just suppose the military is fallacious. If Castillo says he will not surrender power then he fully intends to not surrender power.

The past few years should have not only discredited the technocrats and Western-approved moderates, but show the fractures in Peruvian society. There needs to be leadership that can earn the respect of the people.

Dude, if Pedro Castillo does any of that, he’ll be impeached in no time after a protest ending the government. The last few months, from PL and Castillo flip-flopping and gaining the support of FA and the Humanists, shows just how fragile and pragmatic PL actually is. Personally, I am concerned about Peru and the humanitarian situation there regardless of who wins—I’m an internationalist LGBTQ supporter after all—but by all accounts Pedro Castillo and PL are less likely to turn the country into the hellscape that would be another Fujimori turning the country into their own fiefdom to multinational lords. The most likely things to actually pass under PL meanwhile is more money to education, infrastructure, and some sort of amnesty plan for child soldiers of Shining Path.

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A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Unsurprising that ultras would sabotage the only chance the Peruvian Left had in ages. Shining Path knows that if a successful leftist president comes to power, they won’t be able to attract new members anymore.

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I do think Castillo could’ve won if Keiko didn’t start growing so fast just after the 1st round vote. I don’t think it will be that close now, maybe a 54/46 vs 55/45 divide favoring Keiko? idk

There was literally nothing he could’ve done to won. Basic math and intuition was against his side in a still staunchly conservative country. Anyway

The New Peru movement expresses its deep concern regarding the refusal of the National Elections Jury to deliver the credentials requested by representatives of the European left, the Progressive International, and the Democratic Socialist of America to participate in Election Observers in the upcoming presidential elections of 6 of June.

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If the IPSOS poll is correct, well then that’s much better than the mid-40’s vote* I expected. Outside of those expectations, given the fact that Peru is indeed a conservative country, Pedro Castillo over-performed my expectations by garnering not just most nominally left parties and the endorsement of the Ethnocaceristas, but ate into a good portion of the anti-Fujimori right and centre.

Given that I expect Peru to recover from the pandemic and the economic downturn in its economy, through a parliament more open to stimulus spending along with a country more desperate to broker deals to get vaccines, I’m starting to view my previous predictions as wrong. Keiko Fujimori has the presidency and parliament for as long as she wants it, through free and fair elections or otherwise. I fully expect Peru Libre to completely falter and dissipate while some other populist indigenous and leftist parties rise a few seats, all the while JPP consolidates the Broad Front electorate.

Edit: I should clarify that I mean with the null vote excluded

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The US expat vote might give Keiko a slim win.

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Outside of NYC, I expect most Peruvian Americans to be small business owners and rich expats, who are a prime anti-Castillo democratic. Hypothetically Fujimori could get 60-80k votes wiping off Castillo’s lead in Peru.

This is Turkey 2018 all over again where the diaspora vote, the majority disconnected from the reality inside the country, decides to cast a fate of endless despair and suffering on the homeland.

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If we just look proportionally it looks like there are about ~75K net votes for Castillo left in Peru. Combine with an 88K current overall margin (and 100K in Peru itself) it looks pretty much over unless what remains is much worse for Castillo or smaller batches relative to their departments.

I think people are seriously underestimating how energized the Diaspora can be. If they are any indication that they’re similar to Cubans or the more politically “diverse” Iranian diaspora, they’re indeed hateful about any sort of “revolutionary” candidates who set out to take away their businesses and, in the case of the elite—their power and luxurious lifestyle of graft, embezzlement, and fraud leading to a significant dip in living standards. They still have the money and wills to p!$$ and burn the motherland out of spite by creating a whole bizarro reality where they become borderline genocidal. This is why Miami was a hotbed for Anti-Castro Guerrillas and why Shahis and the Mojahadeen entered an alliance for grift lobby work to try and get the US to bomb Iran. I can see the Peruvian diaspora being quite similar.
To be completely fair, there is a progressive element of lower middle class folks who are left leaning. I believe in NYC the DSA endorsed a single Peruvian mother for city council and some Peruvians have more nuanced takes on the craziness in the end of the previous millennium

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

De Soto 32.5%
Lopez Aliaga 29.3%
Mendoza 8.5%
Fujimori 7.7%

(A few candidates)

Castillo 1.0%

Wow. 8% to 88%

I think Castillo exceeding the combined left vote in San Isidro tells something about this race; the man has crossover appeal to *some* anti-Fujimori liberals and rightists and that he can get things polarized enough to turn people out. I don’t think the same can be said of Mendoza, and especially not the neoliberals with strong ties to the media of the upper class.

This election is going to seriously blackpill the Peruvian electorate. People are going to be so demoralized, so frustrated, so angry...just as Marx said the purpose of participating in elections was? Outside of my regular musings, it seems that no matter the rising copper prices or end of the pandemic through vaccinations, it’s just going to put a lid and let out some air on a simmering, cracked lid in the long term.

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It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

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Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

[PSOL]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

Lmao literally everyone is dooming.

I was dooming before it was cool.

I’ll raise the stakes, if Castillo wins I won’t post in the political demographic and geography and the 2020 prez board for a whole year.

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Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

It's weird, but I find the way that Atlas never learns the danger of making premature pronouncements to be quaintly charming.  Some things never change.

Peruvian Americans don’t like Panchamama, and the bishops are busing in voters in Florida to the consulate, I’m sure.

Upper class Catholics and Protestants don’t like the devil, that’s for shauw