Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Oryxslayer]

The other thing with not having any base of support in the Lima area is that about 40% of the vote comes just from the Lima province...

[Oryxslayer]

Made this map for an upcoming DDHQ newsletter/article, figured it may be appreciated here. It highlights just how much voters are available in just Lima and the Callao suburb. It also shows how hard it will be for Castillo to just get the math to work out. Yes he dominated the southern, more-Indigenous areas, and in similar rural/extraction areas. He'll continue to sweep these areas in two moths, given that the Mendoza and Lescano voters are likely to identify the same and perceive the same grievances with the government. But he, and the others, just didn't do that well in the areas with the voters, and a campaign of rural socialist resentment won't exactly be the best at reaching these audiences. His only hope is to try and play for a 'change' electorate, but Fujimori can probably make a similar argument that the country has only gone downhill since 2000 and its time to change back to what worked. There's also the potential that the number of valid votes just plummets because nobody wants to decide between the two extremes, which would make everything a total crapshoot.

[Oryxslayer]

I believe the Peruvian constitution allows for an election to be declared void if the null and blank votes go beyond 66%. Obviously that's not an attainable number, but I wonder if it will help fuel a lot of protest votes against Fujimori and Castillo. After all, it got to 17% in Ecuador...

Its not the best comparison. Round 1 had 1.34 million blank votes, and round 2 had about 1.93 mill. Even with Pachakutik endorsing a blank vote less than half of their voters went and did it. It would be hard and require candidates to actually endorse such a vote, but everything suggests they or their voters will want to deny the devil - whichever that may be - from getting power.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Made this map for an upcoming DDHQ newsletter/article, figured it may be appreciated here. It highlights just how much voters are available in just Lima and the Callao suburb. It also shows how hard it will be for Castillo to just get the math to work out. Yes he dominated the southern, more-Indigenous areas, and in similar rural/extraction areas. He'll continue to sweep these areas in two moths, given that the Mendoza and Lescano voters are likely to identify the same and perceive the same grievances with the government. But he, and the others, just didn't do that well in the areas with the voters, and a campaign of rural socialist resentment won't exactly be the best at reaching these audiences. His only hope is to try and play for a 'change' electorate, but Fujimori can probably make a similar argument that the country has only gone downhill since 2000 and its time to change back to what worked. There's also the potential that the number of valid votes just plummets because nobody wants to decide between the two extremes, which would make everything a total crapshoot.

Only issue is that for all who still admire el chino, just as many credit Fujimori for ruining sh**t. Remember that a central plank of Castillo's (and Mendoza's) is doing away with the (post self-coup) 1993 Constitution. A referendum on the Constitution would be a good strategy for the second round for Castillo, i think. And Keiko's law and order sh**t took a tumble with Odobrecht and PF's (generally sh**t) behavior in congress. Lima slums will go for her, but metropolitan Lima's a different story.

Oh Fujimori is trash, don't get me wrong. Someone else already noted that her personal position is worse than in 2016 or 2011, but her electoral position is far better. At the end of the day though they are both perceived as terrible to all but their devout, and voters will have to choose the least worst or spoil. The voters up for grab though appear to be the type put off by a anti-extraction anti-market socialist campaign, aimed at the 'forgotten' section of Peru. Its more likely from our current position to expect voters go with the devil they understand rather than the devil from the unknown. I have already seen several posts from Peruvians on other boards along the lines of "I would never vote Fujimori, but Castillo is intolerable so its Fujimori then," but these are grains of salt of course.

[Oryxslayer]

The nature of the impeachments in the last few years has been "shoot first, ask questions later", which is combined with Peruvian parties not being the least bit shy to u-turn in dramatic ways (to a comical degree) when they believe it suits their purpose. It's not impossible for a popular President to survive the first shot - it did look like Vizcarra was going to survive at first, and even PPK survived the first one -, but from what we've seen so far, if Congress wants a President gone, they'll most likely get him/her almost regardless of the charges.

Having said all that, yes, it's far easier to imagine Fujimori being easier to get rid of on account of corruption, but I wouldn't be surprised if Castillo either overreaches or gets involved in a scandal which is used as justification.

The dangerous thing to remember though is that both of these candidates, in their own different ways, will probably attempt something authoritarian to prevent such inevitable reaction. The regional barometer finds the Peruvian electorate's faith in democracy is at a historic low, and these two played off that resentment to get to this point. Castillo is basically saying it in his platform, and of course Keiko doesn't need to say anything to get the implicit message across.

[Oryxslayer]

López Aliaga tells Castillo to go and shove it, says that a Castillo presidency would bring about a Dictoatorship.

[Oryxslayer]

There additionally will be the first runoff poll by Ipsos released tomorrow. It's results will probably color the narrative going forwards.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean even if Mendoza and Lescano don't endorse Castillo a good chunk of their voters will vote for the guy. They generally pulled from the same groups of voters, which is especially visible in the Southern Indigenous areas. This doesn't apply to every voter of course, but these are the voters whose situation makes it obvious from their perspective that Fujimori is the greater of two evils.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes it seems to be a situation somewhat similar to as I hypothesized. The Lescano, Mendoza, anti-Fujimori, and some minor candidate voters migrated easily to Castillo bringing him to a potential ceiling of low 40%. There is a majority opposing him, but a solid chunk of those voters refuse to decide between Fujimori and Castillo, giving Castillo the lead versus the weaker right-wing consolidation of Fujimori. The question going forward will how many of those market-liberalist 'refusers' end up migrating back to Keiko as a result of data like this suggesting Castillo will win if they sit on the sidelines. I suspect more than enough will.

[Oryxslayer]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win

I mean at the end of the day the universe of voters who could be convinced to her side was greater than those winnable by Castillo. It just took a bit of fear campaigning, stigmatization, and greater scrutiny on Castillo to remind those voters why she should be perceived as the lesser of two evils. To that end:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1395233801459179520?s=20

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1395234354402627590?s=20

Her first runoff lead after steady gains since round 1.

[Oryxslayer]

Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

Yes, Castillo has very little support within the military and is more likely to be coup'ed than arrange a coup. Yes, Fujimori is very likely to attempt something authoritarian if/when the Congress attempts to continue the cycle of impeachment comes for her. This however does not excuse the fact that Castillo would also try something authoritarian via different tactics. Populist uprisings, civil unrest, and the intimidation of legislators via mass organization of supporters to descend on the capital are just some of the tools historically available to a radical leader when s/he lacks support within established institutions. Ignoring the many other tools available to wannabe authoritarians to just suppose the military is fallacious. If Castillo says he will not surrender power then he fully intends to not surrender power.

Reminder that a majority of Peruvians no longer believe in Electoral Democracy.

Put simply, Peru was truly F'ed when these two made it to the runoff, but the countries politics have never been decent and the past years crises only reveals just how rotten the political culture truly is.

[Oryxslayer]

Two more recent polls:

Datum/Gestión/Perú 21: 45% Castillo, 40% Fujimori.

IEP/La Republica: 44.8% Castillo, 34.4% Fujimori.

[Oryxslayer]

The Datum/Gestión/Perú 21 Poll, rather than voting simulation:

Castillo - 41.6% (-3.3%), Fujimori - 41.5% (+1.4%), Blank - 10.9% (+1.7%), Undecided - 6.0% (+0.2%)

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

Of course. But its more likely that a extremist splinter group from and already radical insurgent group prefers Keiko win in some perverted sense of accelerationism and self-interest.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1400182044299247622?s=20

Highest recorded rate of participation in any poll so far. Keiko's best lead in any poll, but IDICE/La Razón is the pollster that has consistently had the best Fujimori numbers. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1399716183277031424

lmao

I can confirm that a significant chunk of Lima is quite wealthy. In 2014 I visited much of the Peruvian country side with local Peruanos. Even rode the same busses and go to the same shops, eat at the same Chifa's they ate in. When we arrived in Lima the last part of my trip there it was stunning how developed Miraflores, San Isdrio, Surco, etc were compared to the rest of the country.

One gets the feeling she wanted something like this to happen, given Arequipa and the south in general is the exact opposite of a place where there would be numerous Fujimori voters. Provoking an incident gives he campaign more ammunition to paint things as worse than they truly are, and provides something for the loyal partisans to rally around. Reminds me of VOX tactics in the Catalan and Madrid elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

[Oryxslayer]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

Would like to see the US results

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

[Oryxslayer]

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

I'm pretty sure that US expats votes overwhelmingly for Biden over Trump and Canadians who live abroad tend to vote Liberal or NDP and NOT Tory.  and Israeli expats tend to be more centrist and less rightwing than Israelis in Israel

Even in Latin America the Chilean expat vote is left wing due the exiles of the dictatorships.

Chile expats in the US voted strongly for Pinera in both 2017 rounds. I don't have it on hand but I expect they voted very differently on the constitutional questions given their naturally Liberal and reformist character.

[Oryxslayer]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

2 had her down, 1 had her up.

[Oryxslayer]

The result with abstentions is:

44.8% Fujimori
44.1% Castillo

[Oryxslayer]

Difference will probably diminish as more of the rural vote gets counted, the question is how much?

The real takeaway from my perspective is a 6.3% abstention rate, whereas every poll - even the Ipsos exit - had that over 10%. Unless the pollsters were including metaphorical couch-sitters than that's a big difference.

If true we might be heading for a result that diverges from every data point so far...which might be in Keiko's favor given the composition of the round 1 electorate.

[Oryxslayer]

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

61% (63% of the nation, 10% expats)

52.4% (49.15%) Fujimori

47.6% (44.6%) Castillo

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a good resource for individual district results in Lima? I have two close peruano  friends who both voted for Castillo. One lives in Miraflores and the other lives in San Isdrio.. they both voted for Castillo. They are in the minority.

The national results site goes all the way down to the district/neighborhood.

Minaflores - 84.6% Fujimori, 15.4% Castillo.

San Isdrio - 88.2% Fujimori, 11.8% Castillo.

So a very small minority.

[Oryxslayer]

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

61% (63% of the nation, 10% expats)

52.4% (49.15%) Fujimori

47.6% (44.6%) Castillo

Yeah, I don’t think the gap will reduce enough in order for Castillo to win.

It will probably be something like Fujimori 50,8% vs Castillo 49,2% when all is said and done.

68% (70% nation, 10% expat)

52.5% (49.2%) Fujimori

47.5% (44.5%) Castillo

Fujimori actually went up. But looking around it feels like this was very lima-centric dump.