Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If anyone gets over 30% I will eat my hat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Castillo get >40% in the runoff?

I guess it is very likely. Over >50% is a harder question to answer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many votes left in Lima?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Castillo wins, what does that say about Fujimori's presidential prospects?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It means they’re over.

One ought to hope so.
A Fujimori presidency would be a disaster for Peru.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

How many expats overseas registered to vote are there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

How many expats overseas registered to vote are there?

About 900k registered and 220k who voted in round 1.

Ah, so I guess that minimizes the amount of damage that an expat Peruvian-driven polling error might cause.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Proabably, the 90% for Fujimori in Japan is not only because she is a Fujimori. In 2018, 90% of the brazilians who lived in Japan voted for Bolsonaro. Most of the brazilians and peruvians who live in Japan have japanese ancestry (sansei or nisei) and many of them are very conservative. Almost all the japanese immigration to South America came to Brazil and Peru.

If anything, it's fascinating that so many Japanese Peruvians voted for Castillo!

I heard many, many Japanese Peruvians despise the Fujimori clan and consider them a bad face to "represent" them, if you will.
Not sure how accurate that is though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When can we expect actual results?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

Why is it that the old Fujimori poors rural base seems to no longer exist?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Canal Sur is anything to go by, the ONPE chief is speaking right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

Likewise with 87% Castillo in Puno and 88% in Huancavelica.

Do Indigenous voters go heavily for left?  I know Puno having been there is overwhelmingly indigenous while is Fujimoro more popular amongst Whites and Mestizos? 

To my knowledge, while indigenous voters have tended to back the left rather heavily over the past decade, this kind of consolidation is pretty unprecedented.

Castillo's candidancy is pretty much tailor-made to win quasi-DPRK margins in places like Puno, isn't it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo than it was three hours ago.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo than it was three hours ago.

He would need to diminish the gap at least 0,1% each 1% that is counted considering it’s now 52/48 at 80%. Which sounds the most optimistic scenario.

I think a bit over 50% without the foreign votes is the best he could reach and even then there is a bunch of these to be counted... Something like 49,5% sounds more realistic. I think he will at least reach the 49% mark.

"It's over" are pretty weighty words. I'm not willing to use them unless he actually has 0 chance. There's too much uncertainty in the air for me to be able to say in good faith that I think enough of the vote is in there for me to say that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

from a liveblog I (was) following:
[Google translate Spanish to English, for convenience of all who may read this post, is bolded]
23:26
ONPE
Piero Corvetto, director de la ONPE, señala que el conteo se llevará a cabo en cinco etapas:
Piero Corvetto, director of the ONPE, points out that the count will be carried out in five stages:
1.- Votos urbanos más cercanos a los centros de cómputo
1.- Urban votes closest to the data centers
2.- Votos urbanos alejados a los centro de cómputo.
2.- Urban votes away from the computer center.
3.- Voto Rural
3.- Rural Vote
4.- Zonas alejadas de la selva.
4.- Areas far from the jungle.
5.- Votos del extranjero.
5.- Votes from abroad.

This explains the patterns we saw in the vote count...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What % of votes does Castillo need in Cusco in order to win?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does that make Keiko the reverse Rick Scott?

I guess.

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

Castillo is, for all his innumerable faults, an incomparably more HIGH ENERGY figure than anyone Florida Dems could provide.

Fair point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

I’m not sure Castillo will keep the same large growth trend until the very end. Most of what he needs is in Cusco and that’s already 81% in, even if he’ll probably still make some good gains. I think he will keep growing more modestly.

I am guessing he wins in Peru by a small margin but loses overall because of all the US vote still to come in.

The results that have come on over the last few updates have not been disproportionately from Cusco, though.

At the 86.5% update Cusco was at 77.3%. So nationally 4% of the vote was added, while from Cusco 4.5%. Given how far behind the national number Cusco is, that means it has actually been increasing as a share of the remaining vote out.

Ofc could still go either way. But the growth trends Castillo needs to hit now don't look as superhuman as they did a few updates back.

Then there is the remaining vote from Loreto...that could be decisive in shifting the results in Castillo's favor, right? (Alongside Cusco, ofc)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any risk to hitting the hay right about now? Would I be missing anything?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Getting sleep now. Wishing all of you the best of luck with following the election and whatnot.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm awake now. Who is leading?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

Lmao literally everyone is dooming.

I was dooming before it was cool.

I’ll raise the stakes, if Castillo wins I won’t post in the political demographic and geography and the 2020 prez board for a whole year.

I will disregard this promise in the event Castillo wins.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I promise not to post on the PG&D board for 48 hours if Fujimori wins.