Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[warandwar]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

Edit: be a little careful with "potential Maoist." In Peru, the right throws that at anyone on the Left. There was a photoshopped image of Mendoza posing in front of Guzman's house this campaign, for example. But this is quite clearly a symptom of panic about rural/indian voters who (justifiably) are fed up with Peru's hilariously awful political class. Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

[warandwar]

Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

In what way?

Castillo is very religious - against govt recognition of same-sex marriage, gor example.

[warandwar]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

Edit: be a little careful with "potential Maoist." In Peru, the right throws that at anyone on the Left. There was a photoshopped image of Mendoza posing in front of Guzman's house this campaign, for example. But this is quite clearly a symptom of panic about rural/indian voters who (justifiably) are fed up with Peru's hilariously awful political class. Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

Yes, exactly.  I simply renounce to explain these things to fake progressives who pay attention to reactionary smear campaigns and actually work in the service of reactionary causes. Mendoza is the only candidate who represents a certain "contemporary left". She's neither Maoist nor Chavista

If you must know, I was referring to Castillo and his potential ties to the Shining Path (and thus, potential Maoist) and not to Mendoza. Mendoza is probably my first or second choice in this slate, but I'll proudly wear the "fake progressive" title from people whose leftist benevolence extends to everyone but Jews, and thus work for some very reactionary causes.

Yes, i know exactly what you are referring to. Castillo is a rural school teacher and union militant. If you know the history of the Shining Path, you'll remember that they began out of a teacher's college and had a base in rural teachers. Therefore it is not surprising that Castillo would have encountered people in MOVADEF - a legalistic group that has renounced armed struggle and is denouced as capitulators by the SL remnants. They exist solely to gain freedom for the many prisoners remaining, some of whom joined SL at very young ages and have been imprisoned for decades since. To suggest, as the right wing media does, that this makes *Castillo* a Maoist terrorist is entirely incorrect, and is a smear based on Lima residents fear of a hidden army among the poor Indians upland. No such army exists, but plenty of anger does, which has found a voice in Castillo. If you want to mention his conservative social opinions (no more conservative than candidates outside of Mendoza and Guzman) go ahead. But he is in no way a Senderist Maoist terrorist.

[warandwar]

Called it . Very impressive for Castillo. Will be a tight race for the 2nd position. And I imagine whoever wins can expect a term of, what, 6? months before impeachment. Hard to command legitimacy when 85-90% of the country didn't vote for you.

[warandwar]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

Much more likely that Keiko or Lescano gets it, with the rural vote being underrepesented here.

[warandwar]

Made this map for an upcoming DDHQ newsletter/article, figured it may be appreciated here. It highlights just how much voters are available in just Lima and the Callao suburb. It also shows how hard it will be for Castillo to just get the math to work out. Yes he dominated the southern, more-Indigenous areas, and in similar rural/extraction areas. He'll continue to sweep these areas in two moths, given that the Mendoza and Lescano voters are likely to identify the same and perceive the same grievances with the government. But he, and the others, just didn't do that well in the areas with the voters, and a campaign of rural socialist resentment won't exactly be the best at reaching these audiences. His only hope is to try and play for a 'change' electorate, but Fujimori can probably make a similar argument that the country has only gone downhill since 2000 and its time to change back to what worked. There's also the potential that the number of valid votes just plummets because nobody wants to decide between the two extremes, which would make everything a total crapshoot.

Only issue is that for all who still admire el chino, just as many credit Fujimori for ruining sh**t. Remember that a central plank of Castillo's (and Mendoza's) is doing away with the (post self-coup) 1993 Constitution. A referendum on the Constitution would be a good strategy for the second round for Castillo, i think. And Keiko's law and order sh**t took a tumble with Odobrecht and PF's (generally sh**t) behavior in congress. Lima slums will go for her, but metropolitan Lima's a different story.

[warandwar]

Be careful ^ if there's anything that's clear from this elections, it's that Peruvians who post in English language forums and newspapers are drastically unrepresentitive of the nation as a whole.

[warandwar]

Honestly this pretty much the only election in the world I could possibly think of leaving a blank-vote. Actual human right abusing facist heir vs tankie communist, my sympathy is with the people of Peru.

Pretty absurd to compare an indigenous teachers union leader in rural Peru to anime Stalinists on twitter imo.

[warandwar]

If you want to criticize Castillo, go ahead. But please be accurate. "Tankie communist" doesn't contribute much to the conversation. (I'd point out that like a third self-described "tankies" are trans whereas Castillo is rather noxiously against "gender ideology.") I also think that an analysis that deems him a "puppet" is quite weak. PL has 0 organization outside of Cerron's base. Castillo's organization and manpower clearly comes from SUTE (organization of local bases of SUTEP, the natl teacher's union), more than the Party. Castillo is no dope, you dont become president of the grassroots of a teachers union without some smarts. And let's be honest, the *Spanish * language media barely covered him before April. Can any of us really say we've done our research and have a complete picture here?

Edit: Do you seriously think the Peruvian media and state apparatus wouldn't be intensely skeptical of a leftist Indian president with no support in Lima? No way they'd consider him "harmless" lol, they're the ones saying he is secretely controlled by Guzman!

[warandwar]

His Party is not "unreformed marxist-leninist." The "unreformed" party supported Mendoza. Please do your research.

[warandwar]

For the sake of accuracy - PL is made by ethnocaecerists turned towards the Left. Not "unreformed," and showing traces of their journey (nationalist left populism, caudillism). The "unreformed" parties backed Mendoza and i assume will back Castillo in the runoff, with their dozens of followers in tow. Castillo has said he's not a Marxist. Whether or not you take him for his word is another matter.

Internal refugees from the SL conflict settled along the coast and and outskirts of Lima. Perhaps these are the Fujimori voters?

[warandwar]

MCPP broke with political leadership a decade or two ago and now they just fight the anti-drug police. That statement is some crazy sh**t, very very anti gay, anti abortion, etc.

[warandwar]

MCPP broke with political leadership a decade or two ago and now they just fight the anti-drug police. As someone said earlier, these are the Quispe brothers. That statement is some crazy sh**t, very very anti gay, anti abortion, etc.

[warandwar]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

Why is it that the old Fujimori poors rural base seems to no longer exist?

I'm not sure what DFB meant but a fair amount of Fujimori 1990 voters fled the countryside to the slum exurbs of Lima in the 90s (still a good part of her base). Others have deserted over the years, especially in reaction to the recent corruption scandals.

[warandwar]

New Jersey is not a "third" of the tri state area. That is not how the "tri state area" works. Peruvians live in New Jersey and in Queens. They by and large dont live in Connecticut.

[warandwar]

Update 2: Bellido is currently being formally investigated for apology for terrorism after making comments in support of Sendero leader Edith Lagos and saying that Sendero members “wrongly took a path” because “the country was in a disaster”.

Update 3: Virulently homophobic. Sadly Chabelita Cortez (popular JP congresswoman and former sanitation worker) is still defending him.

Bellido is certainly homophobic but what he said about Sendero 1) is literally true and 2) in no way is apologizing or supporting them. 18 year olds are not the main bad actors here and it is 110% true that rural Peeu was completely ignored at the time (which allowed SL's rise). It's silly to these those Joe Biden is BLM/Antifa level right wing smears published in English.

[warandwar]

Anyway, the real reason the Andean left is so loopy is that their base is among the most uneducated in the Americas. Fully one in 5 Peruvians doesn't even speak Spanish, and these voters go overwhelmingly for the left -- in addition to those who speak Spanish, but are not native speakers. Conspiracy theories spread disproportionately among the uneducated, and even more so among uneducated speakers of languages with limited media presence.

I love how being on Atlas lets dipshyt teenagers be kinds of racist they can't be in the us. Congrats, you should get together with a 60 year old Peruvian banker in Charlotte to talk about how great apartheid is.

[warandwar]

The reason why the Andean Left is so loopy is that it is backed by traditional Indigenous clan heads and remnants of the Incan aristocracy. This is great for getting elected, as they have a reliable support base whose also very rich and very well connected to the lower rungs in rural areas, however their class position and views are incredibly backwards and not in sync to what the urban working class—or even peasantry—want or need.

There is a reason why Peru Libre was supportive of the Second Kim and North Korea in general, and that is because the latter wholly capitulated to the rural landowners and upper peasantry over the working class doing manual labor or urban intelligentsia. This also explains why Peru Libre have the infighting that they have.

Oddly enough, MAS has somehow balanced these interests much better in having a monopoly of sorts over these groups, but sections of the lower stratum of urban and rural working class they have no control over are represented by radicals in the main trade union rallying around the Quispe family and they are seemingly slipping support over middle class Indians. They, unlike PL, do very poorly in getting the non-Quechuan indigenous vote.

LoL

I like the idea that rich Peruvian landowners are big Kim Jong-il fans.

Literally one of the major supporters of MAS are rural landowners. PL was founded by an angsty intellectual and has the support of Incan nationalists and traditionalists in the “Israelite” religious movement and Ethnocaceristas.

You don’t know anything about these voters or their politics, don’t talk.

I don't deny that some influential rural chiefs support the MAS. I just deny that there are many rural landowner big Kim Jong-Il fans.

I hate to break it to you brah, but a significant amount of somewhat wealthier peasants with some ownership of their land relative to other Koreans were and are major backers of the Kim family, so much so that they backed the liquidation of the South Korean left in order to maintain power. Like, I linked it a while ago lol

never heard that before, do you got a source? The Kim family eradicated private land ownership in NK, so it sounds weird.

Likewise curious for the source, but land reform 1) predates Kim dominance and 2) was mostly carried out on the local level by political networks of anti-colonial folks (whereas Kim's support base came from exiles).

[warandwar]

The only Western attitude of disdain I see is when Westerners act like the Peruvian constitution doesn’t matter and that an incompetent loser should be their dictator.

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1518704797666402305

https://twitter.com/manolo_realengo/status/1601806135748608000

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1537129470125125635

I think Peruvians side with me when it comes to "Peruvian constitution" deosn't matter. I'm pretty sure Peruvians side with me instead of some rando American who has no knowledge of Peru and pretends it's like the USA.

I suppose you also don't care about the 7 deaths during protests, most of them being minors. If it's Peruvians blood, it doesn't matter for you. That's how much you care about Peru.

You care more about owning someone on the internet than about human suffering.

Completely agree on all counts, Laki!

This whole case seems to prove the constitutional order to be completely broken in Peru. Pretty silly to meme about it when there's blood and spent cartridges in the street.

[warandwar]

Yes, apparently this the absolutely terrifying arsenal they are bragging having discovered there: four machetes (with bar codes still on them), a ski mask, slingshots and a box of nails (plus reportedly 'anti-democratic pamphlets').

https://twitter.com/PoliciaPeru/status/1604187880246722562

Accusations made about the raid having happened without the presence of a prosecutor, meaning the police has free rein to intimidate opposition parties.

Never thought I'd see another country post a more pathetic loot haul than a US PD, but those three lighters really take the cake.

[warandwar]

You absolutely would have loved Fujimori.

What does this have to do with the Peruvian Elections and Politics? I actually want to learn about what's going on there and filling a thread with immature sniping like this is silly.