Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[buritobr]

7 candidates have the possibility of taking the 2 places of the runoff. This is exciting!

[buritobr]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

[buritobr]

The last poll, one week before the runoff, is showing a tie, considering the margin of error. These are good news for Keiko Fujimori, since she has a growing trend.
Even though, I though it would be very different soon after the results of the 1st round in April 11. I though Fujimori would win a landslide, and that Castillo would fail to reach 40% of the valid vote, because except Veronika, all the other losing candidates were conservative.

[buritobr]

How far left is Castillo exactly? Has he moderated recently and if so what has he moderated on?

He is very left-wing in economic issues. He is conservative in social issues: he is against legalization of abortion, gay marriage, legalization of cannabis and the teaching of LGBT issues at school.

[buritobr]

My forecast
Keiko Fujimori 51.1%, Pedro Castillo 48.9%

[buritobr]

Usually, elections are polarized according to socioeconomic levels, but this election in Peru is probably one of the world's most polarized.
According to the last Ipsos poll, this is the vote in which social class
A: Fujimori 75%, Castillo 17%
B: Fujimori 56%, Castillo 32%
C: Fujimori 45%, Castillo 38%
D: Fujimori 40%, Castillo 41%
E: Fujimori 25%, Castillo 54%

https://elcomercio.pe/elecciones-2021/ultimo-simulacro-publicable-el-comercio-ipsos-pedro-castillo-obtiene-511-y-keiko-fujimori-489-noticia/?ref=ecr

[buritobr]

Proabably, the 90% for Fujimori in Japan is not only because she is a Fujimori. In 2018, 90% of the brazilians who lived in Japan voted for Bolsonaro. Most of the brazilians and peruvians who live in Japan have japanese ancestry (sansei or nisei) and many of them are very conservative. Almost all the japanese immigration to South America came to Brazil and Peru.

[buritobr]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

2 had her down, 1 had her up.

But the geography of the vote was different in 2016. PPK won Lima, Keiko Fujimori will win a landslide in Lima in 2021. If the polls overrate the urban vote, they would put Fujimori down in 2016 and up in 2021.

[buritobr]

The geography of the vote of the 2011 and 2021 elections is very lookalike. Olanta Humalla was also a left-wing populist, a good fit for poor rural areas
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_generales_de_Per%C3%BA_de_2011

The geography was different in 2016, because PPK was a center-right candidate

[buritobr]

After 42% of the precints proceeded

Keiko Fujimori 52.9%, Pedro Castillo 47.1%

https://elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/resultados-onpe-elecciones-peru-2021-cifras-oficiales-en-todo-el-peru-de-segunda-vuelta-de-las-elecciones-generales-2021-jne-pedro-castillo-keiko-fujimori-nuevo-presidente-resultados-oficiales-ganadores-en-lima-callao-y-ciudades-regiones-boca-de-urna-conteo-rapido-peru-libre-fuerza-popular-noticia/

[buritobr]

Latin Americans who live abroad are not an homogenous group. There are poor people who look for a better life, rich people who don't want to live surounded by poverty anymore, people who go to a developed country in order to study.
But most of the Latin Americans who live in the US usually vote for the right, no matter if he/she is a waiter or a businessperson.
In other countries, the vote is more split.

[buritobr]

There are 130 seats in the Congress. Castillo's party has 37. Fujimori's party has 24. Both have a small share of the Congress, and the risk of impeachment for both is not negligible.

[buritobr]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

[buritobr]

Keiko Fujimori joined the group of leaders who didn't accept the defeat: Aécio Neves, Juan Guaidó, Jeanine Añez and Donald Trump