Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[jaichind]

I wonder what the vote share of the "winning candidate" end up being.  I suspect it will be below 20%.

[jaichind]

In 2016 Valid/Invalid vote was something like 82/18.  I suspect this time it might reach 75/25

[jaichind]

Polls close in 40 minutes. Exit poll results will come out immediately, while the ONPE quick count will likely take several more hours.

I thought polls close 7pm Lima time and not 6pm Lima time

[jaichind]

I like both de Soto and Fujimori although in different ways.  Not sure who to root for.  I guess I am for the one more likely to beat Castillo in the second round.

[jaichind]

Any exit polls on Congressional elections?  I assume based on Prez exit polls Free Peru and Popular Force most likely outperformed pre-election polls while Popular Action most likely underperformed pre-election polls.

[jaichind]

IPSOS quick count for Congress (100%), with seat variations to exit poll
Free Peru 12.8% (32, +4)
Popular Force 12.1% (24, +8)
Popular Action 9.7% (21, -2)
Alliance for the Progress 7.2% (14, =)
Popular Renewal 9.9% (13, +2)
Go On Country 7.3% (7, -3)
We Can Peru 6.0% (5, -1)
We Are Peru 5.8% (4, -1)
National Victory 5.0% (4, -1)
Together for Peru 6.6% (3, -5)
Purple Party 5.1% (3, -1)
FREPAP 4.3%

PM and VN (Forsyth) are around the threshold, JPP and SP are also below the 5-seat threshold to keep party registration. For majorities trends more favourable to the right bloc, but the left-to-centre bloc (mostly PL+JPP+SP+PM) needs more than 44 seats (1/3 of the chamber) to avoid any impeachment process (in case of "Peter Castle" wins the runoff).

It seems FREPAP underperformed pre-election polls.  Most likely this is because they did not have a Prez candidate at the top of the ticket.  Any reason why they did not run a Prez candidate ?

[jaichind]

It’s pretty clear by the vote trend that Fujimori will surpass the center-right candidate for 2nd place.

News are already reporting that will be a Castillo vs Fujimori showdown.

2021 is the year with the weakest Fujimori campaign (when compared to 2011 and 2016) but ironically this time her chances are just as high is not higher than it was than in 2011 and 2016.

[jaichind]

Keiko Fujimori moves into second place in the official count.

[jaichind]

Why is there a belief that Castillo will be impeached if the Center-Right forces win more than 2/3 of the seats ?  Surely he has to have done something to be justified.   Namely if he does win 50% of the vote then some of the Center-Right parties must have implicitly backed him making it hard for them to then turn around to impeach him without cause.  As much as I back Fujimori in this race it seems to me that she is much more likely to be impeached if election given the ongoing corruption instigations.  

[jaichind]

https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-pedro-castillo-lidera-intencion-de-voto-pero-diferencia-con-keiko-fujimori-se-acorta-a-cinco-puntos-segun-datum-noticia-1335544

Datum/Gestión/Perú 21 poll 

Castillo         41 (-2)
Fujimori        36 (+2)

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/castillo-s-lead-narrows-in-peruvian-vote-simulation-for-runoff

Latest poll by Gestion has

Castillo   42.6
Fujimori  41.7

The narrowing of the gap seems to be influenced by the Shining Path terrorist attack.

[jaichind]

Despite my preferences I suspect Castillo will pull in out in a squeaker.

[jaichind]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Would there also not be some shy Castillo voters due to recent Shining Path attacks ?

[jaichind]

Fujimori sweeps Tokyo expatriate vote.  Not a surprise.

[jaichind]

Its going to be a long night...

[jaichind]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

[jaichind]

In CUSCO it seems it is La Convención is the province that has zero vote counted.  Looking at the % of La Convención's population that speaks Spanish you would expect the result there to be more like Urubamba which is 87-13.  Looking at other provinces in CUSCO one would expect around 100K votes here so Castillo  should gain around 74K which is 3/4 of the 100K gap in Peru between the two candidates.

[jaichind]

Ironic how the the South where Fujimori was defeated by large margins were the same places where the 1990 Fujimori the elder ran fairly strong in in the first round.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-markets-perus-sol-bonds-144654219.html

"EMERGING MARKETS-Peru's sol, bonds hit as no finance minister named; Mexican peso rise on GDP"

ETFs tracking Peru markets are down 5%

Peru equity funds recorded their biggest outflow in more then eight years this week, according to EPFR Global data.

[jaichind]

Why is it every Peru Prez always ends up with an approval rating in the teens