Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Adam Griffin]

Sestak and I (mostly Sestak) has been crawling through Lima (departments and provinces) to see where these JNE stations actually are and how these areas are voting. After doing some estimations, we're both pretty convinced that Lima, Lima JNEs will only favor Keiko somewhere in the 64-66% range: basically identical to the overall provincial vote thus far. If she's not hitting 70% here, then it's damn difficult to see it happening overall.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sestak and I (mostly Sestak) has been crawling through Lima (departments and provinces) to see where these JNE stations actually are and how these areas are voting. After doing some estimations, we're both pretty convinced that Lima, Lima JNEs will only favor Keiko somewhere in the 64-66% range: basically identical to the overall provincial vote thus far. If she's not hitting 70% here, then it's damn difficult to see it happening overall.

All greatly appreciated, of course.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's the current breakdown of JNE stations:

PERU 898
569 (Lima; 65% Keiko)
214 (Elsewhere; Keiko favored)
115 (Elsewhere; Castillo favored)

EXPAT 340 (Keiko favored)
89 USA
72 Chile
66 Spain
59 Argentina
16 Italy
8 Canada
5 Brazil
5 Japan
4 Germany
4 Switzerland
3 Austria
2 Paraguay
2 UK
1 Belgium
1 Colombia
1 Greece
1 Panama
1 Sweden

TOTAL 1238

[Adam Griffin]

Another calculation: weighting each department's share of domestic JNEs to the current margins in the departments. If this were to produce an accurate result, then it's 59-41 Keiko among Peru-based JNEs. The same exercise for expats produced 65-35 for Keiko. All in all, this would give Keiko a 60-40 margin among all global JNEs (way, way under the needed 70% to remain viable, but enough to put Castillo's win within 50k votes or so).

 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sestak and I (mostly Sestak) has been crawling through Lima (departments and provinces) to see where these JNE stations actually are and how these areas are voting. After doing some estimations, we're both pretty convinced that Lima, Lima JNEs will only favor Keiko somewhere in the 64-66% range: basically identical to the overall provincial vote thus far. If she's not hitting 70% here, then it's damn difficult to see it happening overall.

Thank you for your hard work.

[Velasco]

The count in my hometown (Las Palmas,  Spain) is over. Keiko Fujimori got 170 votes (67.46%) and Pedro Castillo 82 (32.54%). Anyway this polling station is rather small. The count in Spain is currently at 87% and Madrid is at 85%, being the latter more than 1/2 of the Spanish roll. Fujimori is getting 62.2% and Castillo 37.8% overall. I think Vigo is the best polling place for Castillo in Spain (more than 43%),  while Fujimori is hitting 70% in places like Málaga.

I remember a brief  conversation about Sendero Luminoso with a Peruvian woman in Tenerife, some years ago. She was a staunch conservative and surely a Fujimori voter.  I'm curious to read the next Sunday column by Mario Vargas Llosa

[Skye]

So 99.8% is in (100% abroad) and the result is:

Castillo 50.2%
Keiko 49.8%

The margin is 72K votes.

So, you know.

[Adam Griffin]

Castillo will widen the margin back to around 90k from the remainder of outstanding Peru votes, and then Fujimori will shrink it again by 40-45k from the JNEs. Still on track for a 45-55k vote Castillo victory.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

A brief moment of levity in the campaign: el unicornio electoral

A Peruvian voter trying to avoid catching the virus decided to go to the polls last weekend in a unicorn costume. She has become a meme in the country and light-hearted morning shows are basing their programming around her.

https://elbocon.pe/trends/elecciones-2021-mujer-va-a-votar-con-disfraz-de-unicornio-para-evitar-contagio-de-covid-19-video-segunda-vuelta-como-votar-correctamente-noticia/

https://twitter.com/VivaPierola/status/1401613380364947463?s=20

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Lima JNE votes seem to be trickling in. Nothing from that last batch of unreported Cusco precincts yet. Castillo's lead at 67k.

[Oryxslayer]

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

So we're on track for a Castillo win of about 40k when all is said and done?

[Sestak]

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

So we're on track for a Castillo win of about 40k when all is said and done?

Somewhere around there, yeah. A third of domestic JNEs from yesterday are in (down from 900 to 600) so might even be a little bit more than that. Though there seems to be more Lima JNE left so probably evens out.

[Shilly]

Open in new tab for full resolution.

[jaichind]

Ironic how the the South where Fujimori was defeated by large margins were the same places where the 1990 Fujimori the elder ran fairly strong in in the first round.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Ironic how the the South where Fujimori was defeated by large margins were the same places where the 1990 Fujimori the elder ran fairly strong in in the first round.

Were there barriers to indigenous Peruvians voting that have been removed between 1990 and today?

[Oryxslayer]

Ironic how the the South where Fujimori was defeated by large margins were the same places where the 1990 Fujimori the elder ran fairly strong in in the first round.

Were there barriers to indigenous Peruvians voting that have been removed between 1990 and today?

Fujimori at that time was also the 'outsider' promising radical change to fix the countries crisis. Brands evolve. 

[Frodo]

Open in new tab for full resolution.

What explains Fujimori's strength in the eastern/Amazonian portion of Peru? 

[Adam Griffin]

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

So we're on track for a Castillo win of about 40k when all is said and done?

Sestak and I just looked at what's left and this is the current expectation (down from 45-50k this morning).

[Geoffrey Howe]

102k votes net for Fujimori for expats (66.6%). She would have needed 49.7% in Peru to win with that; only got 49.5%.

[EastwoodS]

Castillo only spent $8,000 and won? lololo

[CumbrianLefty]

Castillo only spent $8,000 and won? lololo

What, seriously??

[S019]

https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/06/10/pedro-francke-reitero-que-no-habra-expropiaciones-ni-estatizaciones-pltc/

Castillo's economic advisor promises no nationalizations, seems like he is trying to moderate before entering office.

[EastwoodS]

https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/06/10/pedro-francke-reitero-que-no-habra-expropiaciones-ni-estatizaciones-pltc/

Castillo's economic advisor promises no nationalizations, seems like he is trying to moderate before entering office.

Also his social stances

[Mike88]

Well, this is happening:

https://twitter.com/CNNEE/status/1403041774038290433

Prosecutor requests that Keiko Fujimori be held in preventive detention for the Odebrecht case, according to Andina agency

Prosecutor José Domingo Pérez, head of the special team that works on investigations related to alleged acts of corruption at Odebrecht, asked a judge to revoke the summons with restrictions that was issued against Keiko Fujimori, presidential candidate of Fuerza Popular, and impose again preventive detention against her.

As reported on Thursday by the state-run Andean Agency, she is accused of allegedly violating the rules of conduct imposed by the court that ordered her release when she met with a witness in the case. CNN is seeking Fujimori's reaction.

(...)