Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[MRCVzla]

Current Congress projection (77% of the votes counted, 95% processed)
Free Peru (Castillo): 37
Popular Force (Fujimori): 24
Popular Action (Lescano): 17
Alliance for the Progress (Acuña): 15
Popular Renewal (López Aliaga): 13
Go On Country (De Soto):  7
Together for Peru (Mendoza): 5
We Can Peru (Urresti): 5
We Are Peru (Salaverry/Vizcarra): 4
Purple Party (Guzmán/Sagasti): 3

National Victory (Forsyth) is currently at 4.88%, there are still more than 30% of votes (2 million voters) to be counted in metropolitan Lima. If the party manages to cross the 5% threshold, will get 4 seats (2 in Lima taken from RP and JPP, 1 in Loreto from AP and 1 in Pasco from APP). At early morning Purple Party was above the threshold but they managed to surpass as the count continues.
FREPAP is currently at 4.68% and if surpasses the "valla", may only get 2 seats (1 from Lima and other from Junín). The count from the new Abroad Vote constituency is the most slower of all districts with just 27% counted and a lot of absentees as expected.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Made this map for an upcoming DDHQ newsletter/article, figured it may be appreciated here. It highlights just how much voters are available in just Lima and the Callao suburb. It also shows how hard it will be for Castillo to just get the math to work out. Yes he dominated the southern, more-Indigenous areas, and in similar rural/extraction areas. He'll continue to sweep these areas in two moths, given that the Mendoza and Lescano voters are likely to identify the same and perceive the same grievances with the government. But he, and the others, just didn't do that well in the areas with the voters, and a campaign of rural socialist resentment won't exactly be the best at reaching these audiences. His only hope is to try and play for a 'change' electorate, but Fujimori can probably make a similar argument that the country has only gone downhill since 2000 and its time to change back to what worked. There's also the potential that the number of valid votes just plummets because nobody wants to decide between the two extremes, which would make everything a total crapshoot.

Only issue is that for all who still admire el chino, just as many credit Fujimori for ruining sh**t. Remember that a central plank of Castillo's (and Mendoza's) is doing away with the (post self-coup) 1993 Constitution. A referendum on the Constitution would be a good strategy for the second round for Castillo, i think. And Keiko's law and order sh**t took a tumble with Odobrecht and PF's (generally sh**t) behavior in congress. Lima slums will go for her, but metropolitan Lima's a different story.

Oh Fujimori is trash, don't get me wrong. Someone else already noted that her personal position is worse than in 2016 or 2011, but her electoral position is far better. At the end of the day though they are both perceived as terrible to all but their devout, and voters will have to choose the least worst or spoil. The voters up for grab though appear to be the type put off by a anti-extraction anti-market socialist campaign, aimed at the 'forgotten' section of Peru. Its more likely from our current position to expect voters go with the devil they understand rather than the devil from the unknown. I have already seen several posts from Peruvians on other boards along the lines of "I would never vote Fujimori, but Castillo is intolerable so its Fujimori then," but these are grains of salt of course.

[warandwar]

Be careful ^ if there's anything that's clear from this elections, it's that Peruvians who post in English language forums and newspapers are drastically unrepresentitive of the nation as a whole.

[jaichind]

Why is there a belief that Castillo will be impeached if the Center-Right forces win more than 2/3 of the seats ?  Surely he has to have done something to be justified.   Namely if he does win 50% of the vote then some of the Center-Right parties must have implicitly backed him making it hard for them to then turn around to impeach him without cause.  As much as I back Fujimori in this race it seems to me that she is much more likely to be impeached if election given the ongoing corruption instigations.  

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is there a belief that Castillo will be impeached if the Center-Right forces win more than 2/3 of the seats ?  Surely he has to have done something to be justified.   Namely if he does win 50% of the vote then some of the Center-Right parties must have implicitly backed him making it hard for them to then turn around to impeach him without cause.  As much as I back Fujimori in this race it seems to me that she is much more likely to be impeached if election given the ongoing corruption instigations.  

The idea is that he will likely do something almost immediately.

[Lumine]

The nature of the impeachments in the last few years has been "shoot first, ask questions later", which is combined with Peruvian parties not being the least bit shy to u-turn in dramatic ways (to a comical degree) when they believe it suits their purpose. It's not impossible for a popular President to survive the first shot - it did look like Vizcarra was going to survive at first, and even PPK survived the first one -, but from what we've seen so far, if Congress wants a President gone, they'll most likely get him/her almost regardless of the charges.

Having said all that, yes, it's far easier to imagine Fujimori being easier to get rid of on account of corruption, but I wouldn't be surprised if Castillo either overreaches or gets involved in a scandal which is used as justification.

[Oryxslayer]

The nature of the impeachments in the last few years has been "shoot first, ask questions later", which is combined with Peruvian parties not being the least bit shy to u-turn in dramatic ways (to a comical degree) when they believe it suits their purpose. It's not impossible for a popular President to survive the first shot - it did look like Vizcarra was going to survive at first, and even PPK survived the first one -, but from what we've seen so far, if Congress wants a President gone, they'll most likely get him/her almost regardless of the charges.

Having said all that, yes, it's far easier to imagine Fujimori being easier to get rid of on account of corruption, but I wouldn't be surprised if Castillo either overreaches or gets involved in a scandal which is used as justification.

The dangerous thing to remember though is that both of these candidates, in their own different ways, will probably attempt something authoritarian to prevent such inevitable reaction. The regional barometer finds the Peruvian electorate's faith in democracy is at a historic low, and these two played off that resentment to get to this point. Castillo is basically saying it in his platform, and of course Keiko doesn't need to say anything to get the implicit message across.

[FrancoAgo]

result to 15/04/2021 A LAS 17:16 h with 82,177 counted on 85,927. 95,64%

Top candidates (>=5%)
Castillo 19.11%
Fujimori 13.40%
Aliaga 11.69%
De Soto 11.59%
Lescano 9.11%
Mendoza 7.86%
Acuna 6.03
Forsyth 5.63%
Urresti 5.61%

Blank vote more (+14%) of that Fujimori
Invalid vote more (+6%) of that Acuna

[Maik Otter]

1st round results looking, somehow, like a Seimas election!

Is Keiko also an owner of the citzeniship of The State of Japan?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

[Oryxslayer]

López Aliaga tells Castillo to go and shove it, says that a Castillo presidency would bring about a Dictoatorship.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

López Aliaga tells Castillo to go and shove it, says that a Castillo presidency would bring about a Dictoatorship.

AFAICT, Aliaga was pretty supportive of Castillo, or at the very least undecided about him, until an unofficial Peru Libre Twitter account had the great idea of tweeting  a couple of days after the election about Peruanizing (expropriating) Perú Rail, one of the train companies that goes from Cusco to Machu Picchu and which is owned by Aliaga

[Oryxslayer]

There additionally will be the first runoff poll by Ipsos released tomorrow. It's results will probably color the narrative going forwards.

[PSOL]

Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

North Korea greatly benefitted from the reforms of KJI; its clear Peru Libre is signaling to the land reforms and independence of North Korea from becoming a vassal of China or the Soviet Union, instead staying clear of revisionism and colonization by getting rid of would-be comprador bourgeoisie, willing to become the overseers of the land. The anti-corruption stance of PL assures me Pedro Castillo, if placed in power, won’t place or won’t be successful in placing an incompetent successor who got it from nepotism.

So far, given the fact that PL will have to work with the Humanists and wider left to get anything done, I’m becoming greatly reassured that they’re going to be historic in benefitting the Peruvian people.

Edit: I’m very concerned they are looking up to KJI and not who I assumed they were talking about, KIS.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I wonder if any of the first round candidates will support Castillo (I highly doubt it). I can’t see Mendoza doing anything but calling for a blank/null vote or abstention. Maybe Ciro Gálvez, although I don’t know much about him.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

North Korea greatly benefitted from the reforms of KJI; its clear Peru Libre is signaling to the land reforms and independence of North Korea from becoming a vassal of China or the Soviet Union, instead staying clear of revisionism and colonization by getting rid of would-be comprador bourgeoisie, willing to become the overseers of the land. The anti-corruption stance of PL assures me Pedro Castillo, if placed in power, won’t place or won’t be successful in placing an incompetent successor who got it from nepotism.

So far, given the fact that PL will have to work with the Humanists and wider left to get anything done, I’m becoming greatly reassured that they’re going to be historic in benefitting the Peruvian people.

Edit: I’m very concerned they are looking up to KJI and not who I assumed they were talking about, KIS.

lmao

I wonder if any of the first round candidates will support Castillo (I highly doubt it). I can’t see Mendoza doing anything but calling for a blank/null vote or abstention. Maybe Ciro Gálvez, although I don’t know much about him.

Humala maybe. PL is apparently full of ethnocacerists

Also as mentioned before Castillo wants to bust his brother Antauro out of jail.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Some highlights from a newly elected Peru Libre legislator on North Korea:

Kim Jong Il's feats in strengthening the Labor Party of Korea

Talking about the great leader Marshal KIM JONG IL is not an easy task, due to his great scope of action in the field of politics, culture, army, economy, etc., makes him a great reference and guide of world socialism.

The great leader Marshal Kim Jong Il has performed great feats in strengthening the glorious WPK. From a very young age he fought in the ideological struggle following the example of the great President Kim Il Sung, gave everything to ideologically strengthen the Party for the good of the prosperity of the Korean people.

Since July 1961, the date on which he joined the WPK, he has been dedicated himself to his intellectual work of strengthening its monolithic unity, understanding that the victory of Korean socialism was fundamentally based on the ideological strengthening of the party, as the leading entity of the masses. Towards the triumph of socialism, a deviation or reformism (as happened in the former USSR), would be fatal for the DPRK; That is why I dedicate all my efforts to seal more and more that great unity, between the leader, the party and the popular masses.

Works such as "ON SOME PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE IDEOLOGICAL BASE OF SOCIALISM"; "OUR SOCIALISM CENTERED ON THE POPULAR MASSES IS INVINCIBLE"; "THE DEFAMATION OF SOCIALISM WILL NOT BE TOLERATED" and "SOCIALISM IS SCIENCE", show his great concern to elucidate those problems that he was encountering in his vicissitudes within the party.

The greatness of the WPK rests on its multiple ideological and enlightening contributions. All these great contributions would be worth him as a letter of introduction, to be elected his “Secretary General” in 1997. The dear comrade leader, Marshal KIM JONG IL, would be a great strategist, as we said before, also in the military field.

His great vision and reading of world events and the movements of imperialism on a world scale, would lead him to carry out his successful execution of SONGUN's policy of military prioritization; which would keep threats very far from its borders, or failing that, very concerned about the great military power obtained and which today they respect as a nuclear power.

That is why today the peoples who love socialism and want a path towards it, look very favorably on the jobs left by the "Dear Leader", as the Korean people call him with great love, this great man of universal history that will always remain in the hearts, not only of the Korean people, but also of all lovers of peace and justice.

From Peru, I can only pay this humble tribute to the Dear Comrade leader and point out that his glory cannot be overshadowed, since he has entered the Olympus of immortals.

Eternal glory to the Great Chief Marshal KIM JONG IL!

* The author is secretary general of the Peruvian Cultural and Friendship Institute.

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

North Korea greatly benefitted from the reforms of KJI; its clear Peru Libre is signaling to the land reforms and independence of North Korea from becoming a vassal of China or the Soviet Union, instead staying clear of revisionism and colonization by getting rid of would-be comprador bourgeoisie, willing to become the overseers of the land. The anti-corruption stance of PL assures me Pedro Castillo, if placed in power, won’t place or won’t be successful in placing an incompetent successor who got it from nepotism.

So far, given the fact that PL will have to work with the Humanists and wider left to get anything done, I’m becoming greatly reassured that they’re going to be historic in benefitting the Peruvian people.

Edit: I’m very concerned they are looking up to KJI and not who I assumed they were talking about, KIS.

lmao

I wonder if any of the first round candidates will support Castillo (I highly doubt it). I can’t see Mendoza doing anything but calling for a blank/null vote or abstention. Maybe Ciro Gálvez, although I don’t know much about him.

Humala maybe. PL is apparently full of ethnocacerists

Also as mentioned before Castillo wants to bust his brother Antauro out of jail.

Doesn’t everyone in the family hate each other ever since Ollanta went normie? I remember Antauro saying Ollanta should be shot once.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean even if Mendoza and Lescano don't endorse Castillo a good chunk of their voters will vote for the guy. They generally pulled from the same groups of voters, which is especially visible in the Southern Indigenous areas. This doesn't apply to every voter of course, but these are the voters whose situation makes it obvious from their perspective that Fujimori is the greater of two evils.

[Velasco]

Couldn't put it better myself, comrade! Never has there been a more straightforward and honest socialist than this guy.

That folk is similar to our Alejandro Cao de Benós, chair of the Korean Friendship Association (KFA). If you don't know them, use Google search for kinda funny stuff.

The thing is that a "straightforward and honest socialist" would never endorse hereditary monarchies, so rhetorics aside this Peruvian guy can hardly be defined as such. Calling this DPRK friend a "socialist" is a nonsense sinilar to claim Keiko Fujimori is a "liberal"

[skbl17]

First* major poll of the second round, from Ipsos:

- Castillo (PL): 42%
- Fujimori (FP): 31%
- Null/blank: 16%
- Undecided: 11%

https://twitter.com/CristhianRS/status/1383963810801672192

Factoring out undecideds and null votes, it's 58-42 Castillo:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1383964330048118789

* Allegedly, there was also a leaked poll a couple of days ago, allegedly from CPI, that Peru Libre supporters got their hands on. That poll had Castillo up 63-37 among decided voters, with 40% intending to spoil their ballot or undecided. I think the verifiability of that poll is suspect - it wasn't reported on anywhere else as far as I can tell. Nonetheless, Ipsos isn't far off, so there's no reason not to suspect that Castillo is ahead at this stage.

[PSOL]

I expect a lot of those wanting to spoil their ballots now will break for Keiko Fujimori. Still; seems like it’s going to take massive work to get Keiko elected, either in enthusiasm for her or in the eventual stealing of this election if normal electoral means are off the table.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Spicy! I know there were polls saying a majority of people said they would never vote for Keiko back before the first-round vote, and I also recently saw a number of about ~30% of people saying the same for Castillo - is that real or did La República make it up somewhere?

[skbl17]

Spicy! I know there were polls saying a majority of people said they would never vote for Keiko back before the first-round vote, and I also recently saw a number of about ~30% of people saying the same for Castillo - is that real or did La República make it up somewhere?

I don't know if that specific poll was real, but I can believe it, and such sentiment appears to have carried over. Ipsos also surveyed rejection rates, and they found that 55% said they will definitely not vote for Fujimori, while 33% say the same of Castillo.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes it seems to be a situation somewhat similar to as I hypothesized. The Lescano, Mendoza, anti-Fujimori, and some minor candidate voters migrated easily to Castillo bringing him to a potential ceiling of low 40%. There is a majority opposing him, but a solid chunk of those voters refuse to decide between Fujimori and Castillo, giving Castillo the lead versus the weaker right-wing consolidation of Fujimori. The question going forward will how many of those market-liberalist 'refusers' end up migrating back to Keiko as a result of data like this suggesting Castillo will win if they sit on the sidelines. I suspect more than enough will.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Spicy! I know there were polls saying a majority of people said they would never vote for Keiko back before the first-round vote, and I also recently saw a number of about ~30% of people saying the same for Castillo - is that real or did La República make it up somewhere?

I don't know if that specific poll was real, but I can believe it, and such sentiment appears to have carried over. Ipsos also surveyed rejection rates, and they found that 55% said they will definitely not vote for Fujimori, while 33% say the same of Castillo.

Thank you yes; I think this is what I’d seen.